Weekend Thread: Weekend estimates pg 38...BP 41.14....WIT 33.31

[MovieMan89]

Lmao, just realized Levi Miller is in both Pan and WiT. Uh oh. Maybe he's the child equivalent of Kitsch at the box office.  

 

[Valonqar]

28 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Didn't expect that weekend estimate for AWiT. Figured it and BP would be neck and neck.

Much better movie prevailed. That said, AWiT did well all things considered.

[a2k]

8 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Did Time Magazine not see the muddled trailers? Did they not see the embarrassing amateur hour hair and make-up on Oprah, Reese and Mindy? The film is lucky it opened with a still weak 33mil. Disney better hope that it has legs and doesn't flop overseas.

Wrinkle In Time (magazine) ... they couldn't let the opportunity pass

[YM!]

Although WOM likely isn’t good for Wrinkle, I don’t see a 2.3x multiple, it’ll at least do $80M.

[WrathOfHan]

lmao, 7 Days in Entebbe has a 17% on RT  Could it open under Thoroughbreds despite being in 250 more theaters?

[MCKillswitch123]

15 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Ok, there is actually a precedent for that 2.3x multi for a family film that opened with at least $10m: Pan. But that did open to less than half of WiT so audiences were rejecting it quite a bit more from the start. Among live action Disney ones, Tomorrowland is the lowest with a 2.81x. 

Someone forgot John Carter. That had a 2.42x multiplier. And it had some noteworthy similarities w/AWIT: March release and mixed - at best - wom. Sure, Carter was crippled by The Hunger Games, but AWIT's legs may still not be the greatest in spite of the lack of competition.

 

Tomorrowland did have a 2.81x, but that was boosted by a Memorial Day 4-day opening (and the 4-day multiplier is around the 2.2x vincinity) + Summer weekdays.

Edited March 11, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[Zakiyyah6]

Of course Wrinkle won't get below a 2.5 multi, it's a kids movie. I'm not sure about it getting a 3.0 multi though. Right now I'm predicting around a 2.85.

Edited March 11, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[MovieMan89]

Seriously though, the Sat hold for WiT was strong to comparable titles:

 

Oz: +37%

WiT: +33%

The Jungle Book: +27.5%

Tomorrowland: +22%

Pete's Dragon: +21%

Cinderella: +18%

Alice 1: +8%

Maleficent: +6%

Alice 2: -7%

The BFG: -12%

[Chewy]

1 hour ago, HerediTele said:

 

It didn’t appeal to anyone outside the (large) core demo that rushed out to see it. 

 

Also it's kind of bad? Aged like a carton of milk you left on a sidewalk

[StevenG]

When is BP expected to eclipse The Avengers as the # 1 grossing superhero film/comic book adaptation of all time? 2 more weekends?

 This is such an amazing moment in box office history, and must certainly be a game changer. At least I expect it to change the game...

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Someone forgot John Carter. That had a 2.42x multiplier. And it had some noteworthy similarities w/AWIT: March release and mixed - at best - wom. Sure, Carter was crippled by The Hunger Games, but AWIT's legs may still not be the greatest in spite of the lack of competition.

 

Tomorrowland did have a 2.81x, but that was boosted by a Memorial Day 4-day opening (and the 4-day multiplier is around the 2.2x vincinity) + Summer weekdays.

JC was a PG-13 sci-fi film going for 4 quad appeal. Not the same thing as a PG fantasy one targeted at families. Also, more importantly, JC didn't appeal to females. Females are probably the strongest demo for WiT. 

Edited March 11, 2018 by MovieMan89

[Chewy]

Disney schedules these things knowing they'll be megabombs just to throw ppl off the scent of the critic payoffs

 

Didn't work this time, internet caught on to the positive buzzwords in WiT reviews. Nice try, Mickey

[IronJimbo]

4 minutes ago, Chewy said:

Disney schedules these things knowing they'll be megabombs just to throw ppl off the scent of the critic payoffs

 

Didn't work this time, internet caught on to the positive buzzwords in WiT reviews. Nice try, Mickey

Are there people who actually believe that Disney doesn't influence the critics? How naive.

[RRA]

11 minutes ago, StevenG said:

When is BP expected to eclipse The Avengers as the # 1 grossing superhero film/comic book adaptation of all time? 2 more weekends?

 This is such an amazing moment in box office history, and must certainly be a game changer. At least I expect it to change the game...

A little bit but probably not as much as we hope.

[Chewy]

Just now, RRA said:

A little bit but probably not as much as we hope.

 

After 2 hacky attempts at replicating same success bomb it's back to business as usual

[Premium George]

1 minute ago, Chewy said:

 

After 2 hacky attempts at replicating same success bomb it's back to business as usual

What will be Tupac to BP's Straight outta Compton?

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Panther forecast:

 

Remainder of this week: 12.8M (574.8M Total)

Mar 16: 26.5M (7.6M weekdays, 608.9M Total)

Mar 23: 15.1M (4.6M weekdays, 628.6M Total)

Mar 30: 8.1M (2.5M weekdays, 639.2M Total)

Apr 6: 4.6M (1.2M weekdays, 645M Total)

Apr 13: 2.2M (600k weekdays, 647.8M Total)

Apr 20: 1.4M (300k weekdays, 649.5M Total)

Apr 27: 700k (200k weekdays, 650.4M Total)

Final Total: 654M (3.24x)

 

Thinking this will land between JW and Titanic right now. The TC hold on April 13 is not going to be pretty, and A Quiet Place and Blockers will combine to at least 50M (potentially 60+) the preceding weekend.

 

WIT:

 

Remainder of this week: 5.8M (39.1M Total)

Mar 16: 14.5M (3M weekdays, 56.6M Total)

Mar 23: 8.8M (1.6M weekdays, 67M Total)

Mar 30: 4.4M (800k weekdays, 72.5M Total)

Apr 6: 1.8M (300k weekdays, 74.6M Total)

Final Total: 77M (2.31x)

 

Going to go a little bold on this one. I legit can't remember the last time a family movie got a B Cinemascore (Tomorrowland?), so WOM is bad out of the gate. It's already facing competition in the family market from Black Panther and Peter Rabbit, and Sherlock Gnomes will just make things worse in two weeks. Furthermore, as theaters need stuff to drop on the 30th and 6th, this will be one of their main targets. On the 6th excluding new releases, there will be at least six movies ahead of it (RPO/Acrimony/Panther/Gnomes/Simon/Tomb Raider) with the potential for two more (Pacific Rim/Paul).

You have the week before Easter and after Easter at $800K for all weekdays and $300K for all weekdays??...ummm...there are only gonna be 4 possible options for families for those 2 weeks (BP, PR, WiT, and Gnomeo) and a lot of them go movie hunting...I know you want this to be as close to your pre-year prediction as possible, but sometimes you gotta let go:)...

Edited March 11, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[FantasticBeasts]

I don't mean to be a jerk but it's a nice change seeing something from Disney not doing well...

[The Futurist]

Gimme an     F

 

Gimme an     A

 

Gimme a       T

 

Gimme an     I

 

Gimme a       G

 

Gimme a       U

 

Gimme an     E

[Brainbug]

6 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

I don't mean to be a jerk but it's a nice change seeing something from Disney not doing well...

 

Enjoy it while it lasts. Wont be that way for too long though