Weekend Thread: WKND #BoxOffice - APR 20-22:#AQuietPlace $22M/$132.4M#Rampage $21M/$66.6M#IFeelPretty $16.2M#SuperTroopers $14.7M#TruthOrDare $7.9M/$30.4M pg 24

[SLAM!]

Lots of interesting occurrences at the box office this weekend!

 

A Quiet Place was able to overtake Rampage! That's great for A Quiet Place; though I think Rampage held pretty well in its own right, all things considered. Hopefully Rampage can still cross $100M; Avengers will be deciding its fate.

 

I Feel Pretty certainly could've done better. But it should make up the rest of its production budget at the very least. (That is a very high production budget for a film of this sort; much too high to be honest.)

 

Super Troopers 2 is a surprise! Fans really did do what they said they qere going to do when they crowdfunded it! Big win for Fox Searchlight!

 

Truth or Dare had a harsh drop, but it doesn't matter at this point to be honest. I'm predicting Ready Player One will keep holding well and eventually overtake Truth or Dare on the chart.

 

In a weekend seeing two competing comedies enter the ring, Blockers held much better than I thought it would. That's what happens when you make your film a good one. Kay Cannon has a career ahead of her.

 

Black Panther's hold is just... 

 

I didn't think Traffik would even make the top ten, so good for Lionsgate, that they at least made a footprint.

 

I was worried that the sneak-attacking Indian film would overtake Isle of Dogs, but I'm really happy that Isle of Dogs stayed in there for one more weekend.

 

In fact, I think that Indian film, Bharat Ane Nenu, will do well enough next week amongst its community to have a top-ten entrance under the cover of Avenger's slaughter. We'll see.

 

I can't ask for I Can Only Imagine to do anymore than it already has. It has surpassed expectations by making 11x its budget, and it deserves every penny.

 

I think theaters will keep Chappaquiddick around for one more week because it is a popular weekday chpice among older folks. It probably didn't need much of a budget so I'm sure this is a modest success.

 

Hopefully The Miracle Season can make $10M.

 

Bleecker Street needs to get it together. First Unsane, and now Beirut. What is happening?! They need to reevaluate their strategy, because good films are suffering needlessly.

 

And Amazon Studios apparently hasn't come out with numbers yet for You Were Never Really There... I'm curious about its gross.

[CJohn]

All these puny movies and puny box office. Unleash IW.

[TalismanRing]

14 minutes ago, Barnack said:

0% on RT with few reviews

 

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/kings_2017/

http://www.metacritic.com/movie/kings

 

From a distributor that achieved to reach 5m once in their 41 releases, never achieved to get 600 theaters:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/studio/chart/?studio=orchard.htm

[MCKillswitch123]

@CJohn How has Game Night done in our national theaters? (And how badly is Infinity War going to violate it next week? )

Edited April 22, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, CJohn said:

All these puny movies and puny box office. Unleash IW.

[Mojoguy]

Rampage can have decent drops the two weekends after IW, those weekends really suck.

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Rampage can have decent drops the two weekends after IW, those weekends really suck.

I'm half expecting the May 4th weekend to look like a holiday one with how light the recovery drops will be after everything plummets 60-80% next weekend. 

[Brainbug]

The thing is not EVERYONE will go to a movie theater next weekend to see Infinity War. There are plenty of people who dont go to see SH movies generally. Im with @WrathOfHan and @baumer. Rampage and AQP wont stumble totally. I dont think that their drops will be harsher than 55%.

[Tower]

39 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I'm half expecting the May 4th weekend to look like a holiday one with how light the recovery drops will be after everything plummets 60-80% next weekend. 

Why? that isn't what happened with the previous mega openers.

[CJohn]

54 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

@CJohn How has Game Night done in our national theaters? (And how badly is Infinity War going to violate it next week? )

Numbers tomorrow. It was overall a very weak weekend from what I checked tho.

[tonytr87]

9 hours ago, Krissykins said:

With IT, Get Out, Annabelle Creation and now A Quiet Place all doing $100m+ it’s an exciting time to be a horror fan, and finally see the genre rewarded. 

 

I left out Split cause I thought it sucked, lol. 

 

You suck. 

[Avatree]

Have been away all weekend. That's an astonishing number for Super Troopers 2, really pleased for it. Thought it would do sub 5M. What the hell is with that $14M budget though? Its a fucking kickstarter film right? First one only cost like 1 million.

 

Good hold for Rampage, even better than I expected. Good holds all around since not much competition.

[MovieMan89]

The 4/20 release for ST2 was a stroke of genius on their part. They really lucked out that’s how the calendar fell this year.

[dxmatrixdt]

I was hoping I Feel Pretty would sneak into the #1 spot after that 1m preview number and the early tracking 7m Friday #.  Rampage broke a preview trend last week when it took in 2.4 in previews and made nearly 36m.  For comparison, Tomb Raider did about 2.2 and 23m weekend, and Ghost in the Shell did 1.8 and 18m weekend.  Maybe the family appeal might lead one to extrapolate that 2.4m number to a 30m weekend, but 36 was big for assumed frontloaded action pic. 

 

I Feel Pretty would have continued the trend if it did a 7m Friday and had a Snatched like increase on Saturday.  Then I think Sunday would just show how much over 20m it would have gone.  But there was less spent on the tv advertising I think and maybe that makes it all equivalent when dealing with plus or minus 5 million on the OW.   The 13-15m tracking range had me thinking of at least 2 films I wanted to open to 16-20 range and I refused to change my predictions for them (loosing tons of derby points).  Resident Evil: The Final Chapter and Life.  Also Underworld: Blood Wars, but I think I put that one lower in the derby. 

 

A lot of the comedy crowd must have went to ST2 on Friday.  Blockers held up very well against direct PG-13 comedy competition (plus R-rated ST2 OW), and Truth or Dare held up fine next to PG-13 identical I Feel Pretty.  I originally had Game Night dropping 33% in the face direct competition because of how well Game Night played on weekends 3 and 4.  It is unpredictable.  But I Feel Pretty must likely occupied 1 screen at a 10 screen theater with about 5 showings, which would be the same with the holdovers.  I thought AQP would not be able to put that much distance between I Feel Pretty in the daily weekend PTA (purchase increments/location avg).  It is also possible that the new 200+ screens given to AQP did huge business driving up the overall average.

 

I was not expecting such a large drop for ST2 on Saturday.  Logan increased over 30% from its actual Friday number, maybe even close to 40%.  ST2 went down over 30% from its actual Friday number.  I will still assume front loaded fan driven pictures will continue to become more backloaded making something like Transformers 6 harder to predict from a OD to weekend ratio than like Transformers 4.  I don't think 420 played that much into the favor of ST2.  Maybe just a booking date alone, and out of luck.  Ive looked at some 4/20 dates over the years and I never saw any movement.  With like Halloween, you could look up a random Halloween Tuesday or Wednesday and look at the horror movies in the top 100 that have been out for months and see the small down the chart numbers double up.  Then with other random days, holidays, or festivals, you might see movement, but i never saw any activity around 420 for the movie sales.  It is good to see that fan driven pictures are still making it to the screen.  Last year, Ghost in the Shell and then Power Rangers getting its legs cut off made me weary about future theatrical releases for those super fan driven pictures.  Of course last weekend, Rampage doubled its preview # and that was from a very action packed 1990s video game.

Edited April 23, 2018 by Thematrixfilm

[Maxmoser3]

For mid-April, this wasn’t a terrible weekend. 

 

Next week may help April 2018 break 2017’s récord.

[vc2002]

Strong legs for AQP. Horror movies are really gaining back people's interests in recent years.

 

I don't mind saying this again: A $18m low budget horror movie is saving Paramount's ass.

[WrathOfHan]

Some forecasting: 

 

I Feel Pretty:

Remainder of this week: 4.7M (20.9M Total)

Apr 27: 5.6M (2.1M weekdays, 28.6M Total)

May 4: 3.7M (1.3M weekdays, 33.6M Total)

May 11: 2.6M (800k weekdays, 37M Total)

May 18: 1.2M (300k weekdays, 38.5M Total)

May 25: 700k (300k weekdays, 39.5M Total)

Final Total: 41M (2.53x)

 

Legs are going to be whatever on this. They'll be better than Snatched at least.

 

Super Troopers 2:

Remainder of this week: 2.4M (17.1M Total)

Apr 27: 2.9M (800k weekdays, 20.8M Total)

May 4: 1.3M (400k weekdays, 22.5M Total)

May 11: 600k (200k weekdays, 23.3M Total)

Final Total: 24M (1.63x)

 

This will be down in admissions from the first (29M adjusted), but it is still way more than any of us expected.

 

A Quiet Place:

Remainder of this week: 7.9M (140.3M Total)

Apr 27: 12.4M (3.9M weekdays, 156.6M Total)

May 4: 8.5M (3.1M weekdays, 168.2M Total)

May 11: 7M (2.5M weekdays, 177.7M Total)

May 18: 4.3M (1.7M weekdays, 183.7M Total)

May 25: 3M (1.7M weekdays, 188.4M Total)

Jun 1: 1.9M (900k weekdays, 191.2M Total)

Jun 8: 1.1M (600k weekdays, 192.9M Total)

Jun 15: 700k (400k weekdays, 194M Total)

Final Total: 196M (3.9x)

 

If this can manage to drop in the low-40s next weekend, it'll hit 200M with or without a fudge. As is, I think it's a little too far away for 200M.

[sfran43]

 

[dxmatrixdt]

good # for JW

[Webslinger]

A Quiet Place continues to put up great numbers. Stellar word-of-mouth and the great reviews are likely still pulling in audiences that wouldn't regularly show up for PG-13 horror. It may have a rough drop in the face of the Avengers onslaught next weekend, but it should recover nicely afterward. At the moment, I'd peg it around a $180-185 million figure, but that range could definitely go up if it holds its ground better than I'm expecting it will next weekend.

 

Rampage held up fairly well, even today's estimate appears overly generous. The big Saturday bump last weekend was clearly an indicator that it was playing well with family audiences; word-of-mouth also seems to be fairly strong. Holding well against Avengers next weekend may be a tall task, but this weekend performance puts it in line to cross $100 million domestically as long as it doesn't get wiped out to the same tune as, say, Oblivion against Iron Man 3 nearly five years ago.

 

I Feel Pretty opened decently. It was in a tough spot with Amy Schumer's divisive status in the mainstream and the concept's potential for hypocrisy (based on the trailer, at least), so a $16 million opening weekend is a win. We'll see about legs.

 

Super Troopers 2 may have been incredibly frontloaded, but I didn't think it had a chance at double digits prior to seeing the Thursday preview number, so the weekend number is a huge win. I imagine it probably pleased the target audience despite the critical thrashing it took, so it should have a long shelf life on home video despite the inevitable harsh drops to come at the box office. I guess the original's cult status is still as powerful as it's ever been.

 

Truth or Dare honestly held up a little better than I was expecting, but that speaks less to the quality of its performance than it does to the low bar for poorly-reviewed PG-13 horror in its second weekend.

 

Ready Player One recovered nicely after last weekend's tumble. Avengers' arrival won't be kind to it, but it should still be in line to finish around $140-145 million or thereabouts domestically.

 

Blockers also scored (hehe - or should I say sheshe?) a much better hold this time out. It should finish in the low-60s - perhaps not up to its fullest potential, but definitely better than the numerous R-rated comedies that misfired miserably last year.

 

Black Panther notches another excellent hold ahead of the title character's next screen appearance. 

 

Traffik didn't make much noise, as expected.

 

Isle of Dogs held up okay. I feel like it's one of Wes Anderson's more audience-friendly movies, so I'm surprised that it hasn't caught on more than it has.