INFINITY WAR WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals ~ 257.698M OW (RECORD) | 106.334M Friday, 82.131M Saturday (RECORD), 69.231M Sunday (RECORD) | 640.9M Worldwide Opening (RECORD) | Read the Rules on the First Post | SALE NOW LIVE

[Porthos]

30 minutes ago, JB33 said:

$95M would be shocking. That would mean only a $56M true Friday, which is the same as AoU had.

NFL Draft > Thanos, confirmed. 

[That One Girl]

Alright guys, give me a few minutes.  About to dig up some quotes.

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

i just wanna make sure i know all the rules of the thread so i tread carefully and don't get suspended. are we allowed to spoil Bright yet?

Quote

ONLINE DISTRIBUTION/VOD/TV MOVIES : For these projects, we will assume a reasonable 2-month "theatrical" window where spoilers will apply. For example, if Netflix releases a movie on Jan. 20, spoilers would need to be tagged until March 20.

FAIRY LIVES DON'T MATTER TODAY

[Porthos]

30 minutes ago, a2knet said:

rest of movies

http://deadline.com/2018/04/avengers-infinity-war-weekend-box-office-opening-records-1202378032/

No Black Panther update there.  Somewhere, MM89 has a sad. 

[Barnack]

9 minutes ago, Cynosure said:

"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result." - Einstein

 

This forum with hype.

Einstein didn't had a Nintendo (or a computer) too.

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, Critically Acclaimed Panda said:

Im partially rooting for IW not to be #1 of the summer because it’s always funny when the consensus choice for #1 turns out wrong.

 

Oddly enough that’s been the case since 2014. 

2017: Most had GOTG2 at #1 (WW won)

2016: Most had Civil War at #1 (Dory won)

2015: Most had Age of Ultron at #1 (JW won)

2014: Most had one of HTTYD2/Transformers/TASM2/DOFP at #1 (GOTG won)

2018: Most had AIW at #1 for the 'summer' (JW2 won) 200*2.6 = 520 vs 225*2.3 = 517.5 

[Webslinger]

I'm rooting hard for this one to top $100 million today. 105 would be outstanding.

 

Nevertheless, a necessary word of caution: it's only 1:10 out west, so there's plenty of Friday left to go.

[That One Girl]

@IronJimbo  

 

[dudalb]

33 minutes ago, Nova said:

A QUIET PLACE ONLY DROPPING 44% 

The "return on investment" numbers for 'Quiet Place" must be really amazing.

[YLF]

11 minutes ago, That Ambitious Guy said:

Who called 200M for Black Panther?  Who called 100M for IT?  Who called 50M for A Quiet Place?  Who called 228M for Infinity War?

 

THIS GUY

Box Office guru 

[CoolioD1]

In an alternate present, humans live in uneasy peace with orcs, elves, centaurs, dwarves and other races after they fought for thousands of years. In Los Angeles, veteran LAPD police officer Daryl Ward has been involuntarily partnered with Nick Jakoby, the nation's first orcish police officer. Jakoby is faced with prejudice by humans for his race, and by orcs for his position as an officer. In addition to the pushback from other officers, Ward is ambivalent towards him after an incident where Ward was nearly killed by a shotgun-wielding orc and Jakoby had apparently let the assailant get away. While driving back to the station, a previously detained human Shield of Light devotee tells Jakoby in Orcish that both officers are in a prophecy and that Ward is blessed. While Jakoby is booking the devotee, Ward is approached by Internal Affairs who say they believe that Jakoby put his racial loyalties before his partner in allowing the orc assailant to get away. Ward is pressured to try to have Jakoby confess on tape so they will have publicly acceptable grounds for a firing.

 

That night, Ward and Jakoby respond to a disturbance at what turns out to be a Shield of Light safe house; inside are a number of smoldering corpses, and the still-living torso of an elf woman embedded in a wall, indicating magic was used. They apprehend the lone unhurt survivor, a young elf named Tikka in possession of a legendary magic wand who apparently only speaks Elfish. As Jakoby puts it, a wand is like "a nuclear weapon that grants wishes", and can only be commanded by a 'Bright'—a person with the rare ability to use magic. If a non-Bright touches a wand, they will explode from the raw magical power.

 

When four officers arrive as backup, their racial prejudice cause them to try and coerce Ward into killing Jakoby and lying about the incident, telling Ward he will be spared in return and allowing them to steal the wand. They allow Ward to decide and he goes outside to Jakoby, holds him at gunpoint, and begins questioning him about the orc that had shot him. Jakoby admits to letting the suspect escape, though the reason being was that he had mistakenly cornered the wrong suspect. Jakoby had lost the original orc in the crowd and had instead caught up with a young orc who was spray painting a wall, not the orc who had tried to kill Ward, but he knew the other officers would not believe it and so let the kid go. During this confrontation, the four officers secretly plan on killing Ward after he kills Jakoby. As they approach Ward to hear his decision, Ward suddenly decides to believe Jakoby and kills all four officers. The incident, however, attracts the attention of the local human gang Altamira, and the two flee, under heavy fire, with Tikka and the wand. Leilah, a member of the ominous group Inferni and owner of the wand, arrives at the safehouse minutes later, searching for the wand and Tikka.

 

After a pursuit, the trio flee through the territory of the Fogteeth Orc clan, causing a violent confrontation between the gang and the clan. Finally cornered in a strip club, the gang's disabled leader, Poison, wanting to regain the use of his legs using the wand, threatens to burn the building down unless the officers give up the wand. As Jakoby and Ward pull out their weapons to give a final stand, the Inferni appear and the ensuing fight gives the trio the opportunity to escape again. Going to ground in a service station, Ward contacts his friend, Sheriff Deputy Rodriguez, who he hopes will help them in protecting the wand. Rodriguez contacts Kandomere, an elf working for the federal 'Magic Task Force'; dedicated to securing, containing and protecting magical objects. Kandomere tells Ward that he will be safe from prosecution for killing his fellow police officers, if they can keep the wand out of wrong hands. Before Rodriguez can bring them in, Leilah's henchmen attack the trio, killing him.

 

Ward, Jakoby, and Tikka run into the Fogteeth Orc clan again and are dragged before its leader Dorghu. Enraged at the chaos they are causing in his neutral territory, Dorghu has Jakoby and Ward beaten and tortured to reveal the location of the wand. Dorghu orders his son, Mikey, to kill Jakoby after failing to get an answer. However, Mikey reveals that he was the orc that Jakoby allowed to escape and thus refuses to kill him. Dorghu sends his son away and kills Jakoby himself, who falls dead into a deep pit. As he prepares to kill Ward as well, Tikka produces the wand she had magically hidden and uses it to resurrect Jakoby, revealing that she is a Bright, leaving herself incapacitated. The cloaked clan priest pronounces this to be the will of the Prophecy, causing the clan to kneel to Jakoby and allow the trio to go free. Realizing that the two officers can now be trusted, Tikka speaks to them in English for the first time. She explains the Inferni's plan to resurrect The Dark Lord, an ancient mythical figure who will rise from the dead and take over the world. Once a member of the Inferni herself, Tikka had been protected by the Shield of Light and fled with the wand.

 

The use of the wand causes Tikka to become ill with black streaks appearing all over her body. She says that the only way to save her is to place her in a magic pool back at the Shield safe house. They return to the safehouse but are ambushed by Leilah and the remaining Inferni. The trio successfully kill the Inferni, but Leilah is resurrected by a magic spell. Just as Ward places Tikka in the magic pool, Leilah hangs Jakoby and knocks both Ward and Tikka out of the pool. Leilah unsuccessfully tries to convince Tikka to join her (revealing they are sisters). Jakoby breaks free and shoots the wand out of Leilah's hand, but runs out of ammo before he can kill her again. Leilah is about to kill Tikka when Ward picks up the fallen wand and is revealed to also be a Bright, using the wand to kill Leilah with an explosion that sets the building on fire. In the ensuing commotion, Tikka disappears and the injured Ward and Jakoby flee from the building, but Ward falls behind and is trapped by an explosion, causing Jakoby to have to return and save him. After rescuing Ward, Dorghu and his clan appear and perform an ancient orc ceremony signifying to Jakoby that he is now "blooded" - an Orcish status only achievable by an act of great bravery.

 

Ward awakens the next day in a hospital room to find Jakoby at his bedside and himself restrained as he is an "extremely dangerous" Bright. As Kandomere appears, Ward understands (but Jakoby does not) that Kandomere wants to contain the incident, and gives him a fake statement as to what happened, denying the use of magic. In a public announcement before a crowd, Jakoby and Ward are honored by the city for their actions against the 'extremist group' Inferni. Ward smiles as he spots Tikka moving through the crowd in disguise.

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, That Ambitious Guy said:

@IronJimbo  

 

@EmpireCity wins again He needs to show up gloating about this victory on Sunday.

[TwoMisfits]

8 minutes ago, Critically Acclaimed Panda said:

Im partially rooting for IW not to be #1 of the summer because it’s always funny when the consensus choice for #1 turns out wrong.

 

Oddly enough that’s been the case since 2014. 

2017: Most had GOTG2 at #1 (WW won)

2016: Most had Civil War at #1 (Dory won)

2015: Most had Age of Ultron at #1 (JW won)

2014: Most had one of HTTYD2/Transformers/TASM2/DOFP at #1 (GOTG won)

Do I get a honorable mention for not having GOTG2 at #1, but still missing the top movie:)...

 

(And I did almost have the supers in the right order with SMH-WW-GOTG2 - just needed to drop SMH to the back and I'd have been set:)...

 

As for this summer, it's such a crap shoot, I want to see all the previews and reactions at AIW before I make a guess (since this movie technically is not summer)...

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

@EmpireCity wins again He needs to show up gloating about this victory on Sunday.

eywa will not allow it

[a2k]

Variety (not sure if posted)

 

‘Avengers: Infinity War’ Skyrockets to $225 Million Opening Weekend

Quote

 Disney-Marvel’s “Avengers: Infinity War” is heading for a massive $225 million in its opening weekend in North America, early estimates showed Friday.

 

...That number is included in the opening day total, which was heading for the $95 million to $100 million range.

 

A trio of holdovers will be in a battle for second place with the fourth weekend of John Krasinski’s “A Quiet Place” likely to take in the best number at about $12 million.

 

The second weekend of Amy Schumer’s “I Feel Pretty” and the third weekend of Dwayne Johnson’s “Rampage” should finish with about $10 million each.

 

Edited April 27, 2018 by a2knet

[Porthos]

How on target were Deadline's early projections for Cap 3 and Ultron, anyway?  They spectacularly undersold Black Panther consistently, but that could just be them not accounting for the zeitgeist correctly.

 

Basically, how likely is it Deadline is really underestimating IW here and it could rise as numbers come in.

[Dementeleus]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

How on target were Deadline's early projections for Cap 3 and Ultron, anyway?  They spectacularly undersold Black Panther consistently, but that could just be them not accounting for the zeitgeist correctly.

 

Basically, how likely is it Deadline is really underestimating IW here and it could rise as numbers come in.

 

BP was a black swan event. If Variety is 95-100 and DHD is 95-105, it’s probable that the numbers are around there. 

[That One Girl]

On 4/11/2018 at 11:37 AM, KJsooner said:

 

Maybe now those people doubting empire will stfu now. This is going for the ow record easily.

 

On 4/10/2018 at 10:28 PM, WrathOfHan said:

Apr 27: 300M (85M weekdays, 385M Total)

May 4: 135M (40M weekdays, 560M Total)

May 11: 67M (18M weekdays, 645M Total)

May 18: 25M (7M weekdays, 677M Total)

May 25: 12M (5M weekdays, 694M Total)

Jun 1: 6M (3M weekdays, 703M Total)

Jun 8: 3M (1.8M weekdays, 707.8M Total)

Jun 15: 2M (1M weekdays, 710.8M Total)

Jun 22: 800k (500k weekdays, 712.1M Total)

Final Total: 715M (2.38x)

 

On 4/10/2018 at 11:14 PM, MovieMan89 said:

The legs will be better if they pull this off, 300 OW or not. At least 2.5x if reception is TA/BP level. 

 

On 4/11/2018 at 12:50 AM, EmpireCity said:

Either way, this movie is hitting a minimum of $225m+ and I will not post again if it doesn't.  

 

[DAR]

7 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

In an alternate present, humans live in uneasy peace with orcs, elves, centaurs, dwarves and other races after they fought for thousands of years. In Los Angeles, veteran LAPD police officer Daryl Ward has been involuntarily partnered with Nick Jakoby, the nation's first orcish police officer. Jakoby is faced with prejudice by humans for his race, and by orcs for his position as an officer. In addition to the pushback from other officers, Ward is ambivalent towards him after an incident where Ward was nearly killed by a shotgun-wielding orc and Jakoby had apparently let the assailant get away. While driving back to the station, a previously detained human Shield of Light devotee tells Jakoby in Orcish that both officers are in a prophecy and that Ward is blessed. While Jakoby is booking the devotee, Ward is approached by Internal Affairs who say they believe that Jakoby put his racial loyalties before his partner in allowing the orc assailant to get away. Ward is pressured to try to have Jakoby confess on tape so they will have publicly acceptable grounds for a firing.

 

That night, Ward and Jakoby respond to a disturbance at what turns out to be a Shield of Light safe house; inside are a number of smoldering corpses, and the still-living torso of an elf woman embedded in a wall, indicating magic was used. They apprehend the lone unhurt survivor, a young elf named Tikka in possession of a legendary magic wand who apparently only speaks Elfish. As Jakoby puts it, a wand is like "a nuclear weapon that grants wishes", and can only be commanded by a 'Bright'—a person with the rare ability to use magic. If a non-Bright touches a wand, they will explode from the raw magical power.

 

When four officers arrive as backup, their racial prejudice cause them to try and coerce Ward into killing Jakoby and lying about the incident, telling Ward he will be spared in return and allowing them to steal the wand. They allow Ward to decide and he goes outside to Jakoby, holds him at gunpoint, and begins questioning him about the orc that had shot him. Jakoby admits to letting the suspect escape, though the reason being was that he had mistakenly cornered the wrong suspect. Jakoby had lost the original orc in the crowd and had instead caught up with a young orc who was spray painting a wall, not the orc who had tried to kill Ward, but he knew the other officers would not believe it and so let the kid go. During this confrontation, the four officers secretly plan on killing Ward after he kills Jakoby. As they approach Ward to hear his decision, Ward suddenly decides to believe Jakoby and kills all four officers. The incident, however, attracts the attention of the local human gang Altamira, and the two flee, under heavy fire, with Tikka and the wand. Leilah, a member of the ominous group Inferni and owner of the wand, arrives at the safehouse minutes later, searching for the wand and Tikka.

 

After a pursuit, the trio flee through the territory of the Fogteeth Orc clan, causing a violent confrontation between the gang and the clan. Finally cornered in a strip club, the gang's disabled leader, Poison, wanting to regain the use of his legs using the wand, threatens to burn the building down unless the officers give up the wand. As Jakoby and Ward pull out their weapons to give a final stand, the Inferni appear and the ensuing fight gives the trio the opportunity to escape again. Going to ground in a service station, Ward contacts his friend, Sheriff Deputy Rodriguez, who he hopes will help them in protecting the wand. Rodriguez contacts Kandomere, an elf working for the federal 'Magic Task Force'; dedicated to securing, containing and protecting magical objects. Kandomere tells Ward that he will be safe from prosecution for killing his fellow police officers, if they can keep the wand out of wrong hands. Before Rodriguez can bring them in, Leilah's henchmen attack the trio, killing him.

 

Ward, Jakoby, and Tikka run into the Fogteeth Orc clan again and are dragged before its leader Dorghu. Enraged at the chaos they are causing in his neutral territory, Dorghu has Jakoby and Ward beaten and tortured to reveal the location of the wand. Dorghu orders his son, Mikey, to kill Jakoby after failing to get an answer. However, Mikey reveals that he was the orc that Jakoby allowed to escape and thus refuses to kill him. Dorghu sends his son away and kills Jakoby himself, who falls dead into a deep pit. As he prepares to kill Ward as well, Tikka produces the wand she had magically hidden and uses it to resurrect Jakoby, revealing that she is a Bright, leaving herself incapacitated. The cloaked clan priest pronounces this to be the will of the Prophecy, causing the clan to kneel to Jakoby and allow the trio to go free. Realizing that the two officers can now be trusted, Tikka speaks to them in English for the first time. She explains the Inferni's plan to resurrect The Dark Lord, an ancient mythical figure who will rise from the dead and take over the world. Once a member of the Inferni herself, Tikka had been protected by the Shield of Light and fled with the wand.

 

The use of the wand causes Tikka to become ill with black streaks appearing all over her body. She says that the only way to save her is to place her in a magic pool back at the Shield safe house. They return to the safehouse but are ambushed by Leilah and the remaining Inferni. The trio successfully kill the Inferni, but Leilah is resurrected by a magic spell. Just as Ward places Tikka in the magic pool, Leilah hangs Jakoby and knocks both Ward and Tikka out of the pool. Leilah unsuccessfully tries to convince Tikka to join her (revealing they are sisters). Jakoby breaks free and shoots the wand out of Leilah's hand, but runs out of ammo before he can kill her again. Leilah is about to kill Tikka when Ward picks up the fallen wand and is revealed to also be a Bright, using the wand to kill Leilah with an explosion that sets the building on fire. In the ensuing commotion, Tikka disappears and the injured Ward and Jakoby flee from the building, but Ward falls behind and is trapped by an explosion, causing Jakoby to have to return and save him. After rescuing Ward, Dorghu and his clan appear and perform an ancient orc ceremony signifying to Jakoby that he is now "blooded" - an Orcish status only achievable by an act of great bravery.

 

Ward awakens the next day in a hospital room to find Jakoby at his bedside and himself restrained as he is an "extremely dangerous" Bright. As Kandomere appears, Ward understands (but Jakoby does not) that Kandomere wants to contain the incident, and gives him a fake statement as to what happened, denying the use of magic. In a public announcement before a crowd, Jakoby and Ward are honored by the city for their actions against the 'extremist group' Inferni. Ward smiles as he spots Tikka moving through the crowd in disguise.

I think Max Landis may have just written his Star Wars

[tawasal]

20 minutes ago, BugsBunny said:

Guys... Disney is calling it $225mm for the weekend...

 

On the comparable Friday afternoon Disney called Black Panther $172-198mm for the FOUR day, and it ended up being $242mm, or 20+% above the high end of their range. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4370

 

Studios are conservative. Disney's prediction should most properly be thought of as the lower end of realistic. Let's not say die just yet to something quite a bit closer to TFA. If Disney says $225mm realistic is probably closer to $240mm right now.

 

 

I don’t think they will be that off with this one. BP had other factors driving so high above the estimate.