RandomCat Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 27 minutes ago, TombRaider said: LOL at the butthurt fanboys mentioning tomb raider, as if i care. We know TR flopped in usa You really should change your username and avatar if you don't care about Tomb Raider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lothar Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 27-29 seems reasonable to me What do you say @Rthanos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mad Titan Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Anyone been to the China presales thread? Our experts there are saying this is doing a minimum of $200m opening weekend and could challenge the domestic opening weekend!! 1 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Of course, it is boosted but with over 206K votes (TLJ has 380k total in comparison) but it seems IW has spectacular WOM with a 9.0 rating and with many Marvel Fans including myself thinking it is the top 3 or even the best MCU film. I think the GA won't see it as that good but it seems the fanbase will watch this many times and take casuals like family and friends along and also talk with people to say "OMG The movie is awesome" I know for a fact my raving of the movie has convinced 3 people to watch this in theatres. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, The Mad Titan said: Anyone been to the China presales thread? Our experts there are saying this is doing a minimum of $200m opening weekend and could challenge the domestic opening weekend!! 2 billion is locked then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCKillswitch123 Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 (edited) 58 minutes ago, Tree said: Tomb Raider overperformed more than Infinity War did. I don't know if you're just baiting the fanboys or not, but if you're not, gonna have to completely disagree here. 640 million OW WW is less of an overperformance than TR making the exact same amount as the original Jolie movie WW? 'Kay then. You can say it was "expected" that IW would break the DOM OW (and it was.... by some people, not by the majority or even half of everyone, myself included; hell, you were adamant that there would be meltdowns of disappointment), but pretty much nobody gave it a legit chance at making more than Fate Of The Furious WW, and especially as much as it did, due to China being MIA. It not only broke the record but it eviscerated it. Tomb Raider did the same as the 2001 movie, and considering what the Resident Evil movies have done (especially the last one, with an even smaller DOM intake) and what Rampage and Angry Birds and Warcraft and other video game movies have pulled off, TR was not an overperformance by any means. It was good enough, and that's it. Edited May 2, 2018 by MCKillswitch123 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REC Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 15 minutes ago, The Mad Titan said: Anyone been to the China presales thread? Our experts there are saying this is doing a minimum of $200m opening weekend and could challenge the domestic opening weekend!! Yes. I saw someone in there estimates it’s got a 200m opener and 600m total run in China. Running the WW numbers came up with an approximate 2.6bn total. That would be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, REC said: Yes. I saw someone in there estimates it’s got a 200m opener and 600m total run in China. Running the WW numbers came up with an approximate 2.6bn total. That would be something. With a $200m OW I really doubt it can jump to $600m total. Multipliers in China are lower than in USA. A x2 multiplier would already be great. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rebeccas Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 13 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said: I don't know if you're just baiting the fanboys or not, but if you're not, gonna have to completely disagree here. 640 million OW WW is less of an overperformance than TR making the exact same amount as the original Jolie movie WW? 'Kay then. You can say it was "expected" that IW would break the DOM OW (and it was.... by some people, not by the majority or even half of everyone, myself included; hell, you were adamant that there would be meltdowns of disappointment), but pretty much nobody gave it a legit chance at making more than Fate Of The Furious WW, and especially as much as it did, due to China being MIA. It not only broke the record but it eviscerated it. Tomb Raider did the same as the 2001 movie, and considering what the Resident Evil movies have done (especially the last one, with an even smaller DOM intake) and what Rampage and Angry Birds and Warcraft and other video game movies have pulled off, TR was not an overperformance by any means. It was good enough, and that's it. Yeah I think the initial WW prediction on Friday was like $500m. It ended up being $640m. If that's not an overperformance, idk what is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ledmonkey96 Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, REC said: Yes. I saw someone in there estimates it’s got a 200m opener and 600m total run in China. Running the WW numbers came up with an approximate 2.6bn total. That would be something. So Avatar is in play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REC Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, peludo said: With a $200m OW I really doubt it can jump to $600m total. Multipliers in China are lower than in USA. A x2 multiplier would already be great. It all hinges on China, whether this movie does TFA or Avatar money. If it overperforms in China, who knows. Would you agree that the safe bet for China is looking to be 200-300m total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samarus Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 37 minutes ago, The Mad Titan said: Anyone been to the China presales thread? Our experts there are saying this is doing a minimum of $200m opening weekend and could challenge the domestic opening weekend!! This movie's OS performance is so damn impressive. Even here in germany, where the MCU is not THAT popular, almost everyone around me talks about it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 (edited) 10 minutes ago, REC said: It all hinges on China, whether this movie does TFA or Avatar money. If it overperforms in China, who knows. Would you agree that the safe bet for China is looking to be 200-300m total? According what people who know a lot are saying in Chinese presales thread, the OW seems already locked to be at least $200m. Let's be cautious and it opens to "just" $220m. With good reception it would be headed to $400m (similar to Furious 8). This scenario already seems the floor. But there is still 9 days until it is released. The previsions could still increase and who knows if it could manage the OW DOM and try $500m total... you never know what can happen in China. Edited May 2, 2018 by peludo 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REC Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Just now, Samarus said: This movie's OS performance is so damn impressive. Even here in germany, where the MCU is not THAT popular, almost everyone around me talks about it. Because it’s an event. Not the same kind of event that TFA was, or BP was, but something else. It’s in the culture now, that’s why this thing is blowing up beyond our expectations. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 20 minutes ago, REC said: Yes. I saw someone in there estimates it’s got a 200m opener and 600m total run in China. Running the WW numbers came up with an approximate 2.6bn total. That would be something. A 3x multi off of a 200m OW is not possible for this even if the movie gets a 9+ rating. Most big SH movies nowadays tend to stall around a 2x multi and many of the recent SH movies like SMH and BP had multi’s that were 1.75 or below. 11 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said: So Avatar is in play? No 7 minutes ago, REC said: It all hinges on China, whether this movie does TFA or Avatar money. If it overperforms in China, who knows. Would you agree that the safe bet for China is looking to be 200-300m total? If you are talking about total then yes 200 is locked and it seems like 300 is too. Beyond that will depend entirely on ratings. If this can somehow manage a 9+ rating there then 400 is also possible. But getting beyond that will be difficult. 500 would require beyond great WoM and a bridge too far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAKKALUL Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, REC said: It all hinges on China, whether this movie does TFA or Avatar money. If it overperforms in China, who knows. Would you agree that the safe bet for China is looking to be 200-300m total? The presales thread is saying its looking like a 200m+ opening right now so I would assume that 200-300 is pretty conservative given our current information. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mad Titan Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 16 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said: So Avatar is in play? No it won’t do that much. Even my loftiest numbers only get it to $2.5 billion ($1.2 billion OS + $500 million China + $800 million domestic). Titanic is in play though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REC Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, peludo said: According what people who know a lot are saying in Chinese presales thread, the OW seems already locked to be at least $200m. Let's be cautious and it opens to "just" $220m. With good reception it would be headed to $400m (similar to Furious 8). This scenario already seems the floor. But there is still 9 days until it is released. The previsions could still increase and who knows if it could manage the OW DOM and try $500m total... you never know what can happen in China. This is why I think something just under Avatar is possible. Maybe it’s not likely, we don’t know the legs yet. But I think they will be great. And very roughly we’re looking at something like: 700m Dom 500m China 1.3bn OS - China Which gets us to 2.5bn. A little bit of over-performance in almost any location could get that a bit higher. 750-800m Dom isn’t impossible. The OS numbers are just insane in certain places. I feel like 2bn WW should be the expectation, but 2.2-2.5 isn’t that crazy either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jessie Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 IW is the equivalent of Empire Strikes Back. Come at me SW fans 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 And this is what happens when RTH has decided to forsaken us. We actually have to wait for twitter to help us out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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