Venom | 5 OCTOBER 2018 | Sony | Tom Hardy is Venom. Social Media reactions coming in

[Lucasmessi12]

8 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Are they on drugs or something?! No way it's gonna make just 85$ mln total with x2 multiplier, that's absolutely incompetent tracking. What about Suicide Squad, which was basically in the same position? 

1.3 mln likes against 49k dislikes. So much hate!

BO  Long Range Forecast  for Suicide Squad are a bit accurate. 

OW= $98,000,000

Total= $275,000,000

https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-suicide-squad-founder-nine-lives/

 

 

 

But yeah, I find these numbers for Venom too low,   less than $90m  total?

Edited August 10, 2018 by Lucasmessi12

[LOGAN'sLuckyRun]

I don't know what's worse. The low tracking or people taking BO Pro's long range predictions seriously.

 

remember that they said Dp2 would only make 240m DOM

Edited August 10, 2018 by LOGAN'sLuckyRun

[Lucasmessi12]

Perhaps  views in the Venom trailers were huge only outside US,  but small in North America?

[Hades]

5 minutes ago, LOGAN'sLuckyRun said:

I don't know what's worse. The low tracking or people taking BO Pro's long range predictions seriously.

 

remember that they said Dp2 would only make 240m DOM

I remember when Civil War was to make 600 domestic....🤣

 

Their original prediction for SING was also hilarious...

[Barnack]

54 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Are they on drugs or something?! No way it's gonna make just 85$ mln total with x2 multiplier, that's absolutely incompetent tracking. What about Suicide Squad, which was basically in the same position? 

59 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

Suicide Squad is quite the different animal than Venom imo. I doubt the trailer reaction among regular people is close, you have Will Smith, you have classic characther known by the general audience like Batman/Joker, Harley hype, the classic clear assemble of hard to control asset for a mission narrative high concept, a bit of diversity appeal a la Fast and Furious going on and so on.

 

People knew the movie right away with Suicide Squad before needing to watch it, Venom look less obvious.

 

That said, even if I do not buy a Suicide Squad level phenomenon yet, should open over 35m almost certainly.

Edited August 10, 2018 by Barnack

[filmlover]

Yeah, Suicide Squad was a completely different beast altogether in terms of creating early hype. Margot Robbie's Harley Quinn outfit/appearance was even a popular Halloween costume over 9 months before the film was released.

[DMan7]

Relax I'm sure DP 1 long range tracking was around that same figure Venom has right now. 

[LOGAN'sLuckyRun]

11 minutes ago, DMan7 said:

Relax I'm sure DP 1 long range tracking was around that same figure Venom has right now. 

Deadpool long range was actually at 75m

 

That being said these things should be taken with a sack of salt

Edited August 10, 2018 by LOGAN'sLuckyRun

[Pinacolada]

I just do not agree with those numbers

[Firepower]

By Suicide Squad comparison I mean: huge hype/social media activity, huge number of trailer views, marketed as dark/different cbm with anti-hero/villain protagonist, extensive reshoots, forced PG-13, potential bad quality. It's very similar situation.

57 minutes ago, Barnack said:

you have classic characther known by the general audience

Average Joe knows about Venom too, he's far more popular and famous character than Harley or most of SS members, he's not far from Joker's fame. That's basically the same situation as with Deadpool: people really understimated popularity of the character and that's why BO tracking is much lower than it should be.

57 minutes ago, Barnack said:

you have Will Smith

And here we have Tom Hardy at the peak of his fame. Will Smith's star power was far from his best days when Suicide Squad was released.

Edited August 10, 2018 by Firepower

[AJG]

Just now, Firepower said:

 

And here we have Tom Hardy at the peak of his popularity. Will Smith's star power was far from his best days when Suicide Squad was released.

 

How dare you. Tom Hardy at his peak does not and will never outshine Will Smith at his lowest. 

[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Average Joe knows about Venom too,

I do not know him at all, first time I heard of him what on this message board with this thread / movie announcement, maybe it is different in the USA too were people follow those things way more. But you could be overrating average joe SH knowledge and interest here a little bit.

 

5 minutes ago, Firepower said:

And here we have Tom Hardy at the peak of his fame. Will Smith's star power was far from his best days when Suicide Squad was released.

Tom Hardy lead movie have an hard time making 10m at the box office, I think none did reach 15m ever, that the movies box office when Hardy is the lead (copy pasting from here: https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/26519-venom-under-100m/?do=findComment&comment=3598671

 

If I am not missing / had too many in there, those are the sold on Hardy / list of Hardy when he is the clear lead movies (or was Joel the lead in Warrior ? I do not remember that movie much outside that it was quite fun):

	DBO	Rotten tomatoes
Legend	1.88	61%
Child 44	1.22	26%
The Drop	10.70	89%
Locke	1.37	91%
Warrior	13.65	83%
Bronson	0.10	76%

 

Smith is not half of Pursuit of Happiness Smith in term of drawing power, but if you put him in a summer blockbuster with a fun trailer and him saying funny thing, it is still freaking Will Smith that started to the biggest draw of the late 90s/early 2000 level he did not fall to a Kevin Costner level.

 

Hardy has good appeal for that crowd natural audience and a good choice, but no necessarily the type that will help the movie reach outside is natural audience and break out, like a Will Smith can.

[Firepower]

13 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

How dare you. Tom Hardy at his peak does not and will never outshine Will Smith at his lowest. 

Like those After Earth/Colateral Beauty numbers? Easily, Venom will destroy it.

Edited August 10, 2018 by Firepower

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Like those After Earth/Colateral Beauty numbers? Easily, Venom will destroy it.

All of those are still much higher than any Tom Hard lead movie no ? Yes Venom will destroy non superheroes Smith lowest, but does not mean that it will make Smith lowest superheroes performance (that would be Suicide Squad, for the era Hancock was bigger I think)

Edited August 10, 2018 by Barnack

[filmlover]

17 minutes ago, Firepower said:

And here we have Tom Hardy at the peak of his fame. Will Smith's star power was far from his best days when Suicide Squad was released.

You are not seriously trying to compare Tom Hardy (and anyone else who has broken out in the 2010s, really) to Will Smith at his peak, are you? Because dude...

[Firepower]

14 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Smith is not half of Pursuit of Happiness Smith in term of drawing power, but if you put him in a summer blockbuster with a fun trailer and him saying funny thing, it is still freaking Will Smith that started to the biggest draw of the late 90s/early 2000 level he did not fall to a Kevin Costner level

What about After Earth/Colateral Beauty then? You compare Tom Hardy's art-house flicks with limited releases and no marketing with Will Smith's wide releases with a lot of marketing. Is it fair? What about Fury Road then? When did the last Will Smith's movie outside SS and MIB3 make 45+ OW? 2008?

14 minutes ago, Barnack said:

I do not know him at all, first time I heard of him what on this message board with this thread / movie announcement, maybe it is different in the USA too were people follow those things way more. But you could be overrating average joe SH knowledge and interest here a little bit.

A lot of people watched Spider Man 3, a lot of people know about Spider Man and his main villains, not less than Batman and his bads. I can tell you that tons of people know about Venom, including outside US, he's iconic character. It wouldn't have made this much hype and trailer views with shitty trailers if he hadn't been popular.

Edited August 10, 2018 by Firepower

[Firepower]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

You are not seriously trying to compare Tom Hardy (and anyone else who has broken out in the 2010s, really) to Will Smith at his peak, are you? Because dude...

Did you read my post? I wrote about Tom Hardy at his peak against Will Smith at his lowest.

[Cap]

Even if they thought the DOM would end up low, I am surprised they didn’t frontload the movie more. I think this year proves, unequivocally, that superhero movies are crazy frontloaded. I would have at least put it at 55-60M. 

 

ETA: I also don’t trust the trailer viewers with this one. I bet A LOT are only for Dick Tongue. 

Edited August 10, 2018 by captainwondyful

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Did you read my post? I wrote about Tom Hardy at his peak against Will Smith at his lowest.

So what? How many people actually went to see any of the hits Hardy has been in because of him (spoiler alert: no one)? Hell, when he's headlined a movie on his own (Child 44, Legend...the latter was even released post-Fury Road), no one cared. Meanwhile, Smith at his peak had hits across multiple genres where he was unquestionably the main draw. Venom might be huge, but that's because it's a comic book movie and not because Hardy is some box office superstar. Come on now.

Edited August 10, 2018 by filmlover

[Firepower]

10 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Venom might be huge, but that's because it's a comic book movie and not because Hardy is some box office superstar. Come on now.

It's a combination of the popular source material and the right star. Can you imagine hype for this movie if... let's say Jai Courtney played Eddie Brock instead of Hardy? Or some noname actor? So Hardy is definitely a big bonus to this movie.

Edited August 10, 2018 by Firepower