AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

[UserHN]

4 hours ago, expensiveho said:

Lady Gaga is looking scary in that pic 😈

[terrestrial]

Gavin Feng‏ @gavinfeng97 2 minutes ago

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Avengers: Endgame already became the 6th best pre-selling title of all time with more than $30 million in China. It only took 60 hours to match what Warcraft, Transformers: The Last Knight finally earned in advance ticket sale. #AvengersEndgame

 

Gavin Feng‏ @gavinfeng97 3m3 minutes ago

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At this point, the top five best pre-selling titles of all time are: Infinity War, recent two Furious films, two Chinese New Year titles Monster Hunt 2 & Detective Chinatown 2. Endgame will no doubt beat them one by one. #AvengersEndgame

[Legion Again]

So over on reddit there was a post about speed to hit 1B and 1.5B, I said 

1B 5 days (international release, day 3 DOM)   

1.5B 9 days (maybe 10)   

2B 16-19 days (originally eyeballed a mega optimistic 14, but when I crunched the numbers more deeply that wasn’t really achievable)

 

Ended up writing a fairly long justification for that 2B speed and figured I might as well post it here.   

 

16 days of international release for Endgame will be the end of Thursday May 9th. There will be 14 days of DOM play, 16 days of China play, 16 days of OS-C-Russia play, and 11 days of Russia play since it opens on a Monday for some wacky reason. Comparing to IW:  
DOM — 258x2.63=679M, 486M or 71.5% by day 14

China — 200x1.88=376M, 330M or 88% by day 16

OS-C-R — 383x2.5=959M, 765.5 or 80% by day 16

Russia — 18.2x1.9=34.6M, 28.5 or 82.5% by day 11

 

So at aligned time of release, IW had 486+330+765.5+28.5=1610 or 78.6% of its gross. So if Endgame legs are the same, this would take about a 2/.786=2.54B total gross. **However,** Endgame is likely to be more frontloaded, especially with the 5-day opening in China and the entire 4-day extended Labor Day holiday falling within this period. Call it maybe 91% by day 16.    

 

Domestically and OS-C-R maybe a tad more frontloaded, let’s say 72.5% and 81% by day 14/16.  Russia I have no idea since it’s a Monday opening, small enough to not be a huge deal, just going to say 80% or so. Then if the 4 regions are about the same balance with each other as IW, the amount by then would be (492+342+777+28)/2048=80%. So passing 2B then would correspond to a WW total of about 2.5B. About the most optimistic I’m willing to go.

 

For 19 days IW aligned was at 548+340+830+30.5=1748.5, 85.4%. So that would correspond to a final gross of 2.34. Adjust for a bit more frontloading, and passing 2B on day 19 corresponds to a final gross of about 2.3B. Good enough for me.     

 

If final gross is more like 2.23, corresponds to passing 2B around 26 days. Still clobbering Avatar’s 47 day record.

Edited April 15, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[terrestrial]

5 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

and 11 days of Russia play since it opens on a Monday for some wacky reason

local movies at the time of the general release, and Russia has other holidays than the west

Quote

1. Mai	Wednesday	Spring and Labor Day	National holiday
2. Mai	Thursday	Spring and Labor Day Holiday	National holiday
3. Mai	Friday	Spring and Labor Day Holiday	National holiday
9. Mai	Thursday	Victory Day	National holiday
10. Mai	Friday	Defender of the Fatherland Day holiday	National holiday

 

Worldwide:

6 May the Muslim Ramadan starts. not sure if that will influence BO, as at the evening often the family meets to eat together. Goes till 5 June

When the Ramadan will be in a year changes in releation to our calendar (moon years), for comparison if someone want to check if it might influence the BO:

Quote

Ramadan 2014: 28. June till 27. July 2014

Ramadan 2015: 18. June till 16. July 2015

Ramadan 2016: 06. June till 04. July 2016

Ramadan 2017: 27. May till 24. June 2017

Ramadan 2018: 16. May till 14. June 2018

Ramadan 2019: 06. May till 05. June 2019

Ramadan 2020: 24. April till 24. May 2020

 

[JimiQ]

14 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

 

The Ramadan is nice find, I guess of muslim countries the largest for Endgame will be Indonesia

[terrestrial]

9 minutes ago, JimiQ said:

The Ramadan is nice find, I guess of muslim countries the largest for Endgame will be Indonesia

I can imagine during the day it can distract from the hunger... to go and watch a movie, but evenings might be reduced.

If there is an influence, then it might influence in small% also countries with mixed religions or....

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, terrestrial said:

local movies at the time of the general release, and Russia has other holidays than the west

 

Worldwide:

6 May the Muslim Ramadan starts. not sure if that will influence BO, as at the evening often the family meets to eat together. Goes till 5 June

When the Ramadan will be in a year changes in releation to our calendar (moon years), for comparison if someone want to check if it might influence the BO:

 

Ramadan will adversely affect numbers in muslim countries.

[AhmiiZafii]

I am Muslim. 

Many Muslims just stay at home praying during the day and after aftaar go to walk or recreational stuff. 

Last year I saw Deadpool 2 during Ramadan after aftaar and it was housefull(It was a weekday I think) 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, AhmiiZafii said:

I am Muslim. 

Many Muslims just stay at home praying during the day and after aftaar go to walk or recreational stuff. 

Last year I saw Deadpool 2 during Ramadan after aftaar and it was housefull(It was a weekday I think) 

In Pakistan DP 2 dropped heavily during Ramadan.

Tue: pkr 8mn

Wed: pkr 7mn

Thu: pkr 1.5mn (ramadan started)

Fri: pkr 3mn

Sat: pkr 4mn

Sun: pkr 3mn

 

Total: pkr 26.5mn

 

[Olive]

AEG presales sold 327k tickets for the first 3 days in Taiwan , 3 times what AIW did.

All-time record.

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, Olive said:

AEG presales sold 327k tickets for the first 3 days in Taiwan , 3 times what AIW did.

All-time record.

 

750m NT$ a good target?

[AhmiiZafii]

1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

In Pakistan DP 2 dropped heavily during Ramadan.

Tue: pkr 8mn

Wed: pkr 7mn

Thu: pkr 1.5mn (ramadan started)

Fri: pkr 3mn

Sat: pkr 4mn

Sun: pkr 3mn

 

Total: pkr 26.5mn

 

I live in Karachi's urban area and my theater was mostly housefull after aftaar showtime for DP 2.

[Claudio]

Reliable Twitter account for Indonesian box office @bicaraboxoffice predicting :

$2.5M - $3M for OD ( new record )

$13M - $16M of OW ( new record again )

$28M - $35M total ( and again )

If that happens ( in fact it's locked btw ) , then that would be the third time OD record and OW record being broken this year in a span just 1 month and 1 week.

 

Previous record holder :

- Local movies dilan 1991 ( beating IW ) 5 weeks ago

- CM broke it just a week later

- will be crush by Endgame a month later

 

Here's the tweet :

Check out @bicaraboxoffice’s Tweet:

 

FYI , the admin of bicaraboxoffice is @newbie BO buff

 

[Claudio]

He also mentions that some theatre of the 3rd largest chain in Indonesia , Cinemaxx will open 24hr to show Endgame ( not sure which day since the schedule still not out yet ) and some of the theater from largest chain , XXI will also show endgame as early as 5AM for the first showing. Both would be the first time this thing happens in Indonesia.

[charlie Jatinder]

$2.5mn will be underwhelming. 

 

Just 20% above Captain Marvel. Even $3mn will be just 40% up. Need $4mn  Right @Thanos Legion

Edited April 15, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[fabiopazzo2]

10 minutes ago, Claudio said:

Reliable Twitter account for Indonesian box office @bicaraboxoffice predicting :

$2.5M - $3M for OD ( new record )

$13M - $16M of OW ( new record again )

$28M - $35M total ( and again )

If that happens ( in fact it's locked btw ) , then that would be the third time OD record and OW record being broken this year in a span just 1 month and 1 week.

 

Previous record holder :

- Local movies dilan 1991 ( beating IW ) 5 weeks ago

- CM broke it just a week later

- will be crush by Endgame a month later

 

Here's the tweet :

Check out @bicaraboxoffice’s Tweet:

 

FYI , the admin of bicaraboxoffice is @newbie BO buff

 

Really interesting market to follow in the next years

Edited April 15, 2019 by fabiopazzo2

[Claudio]

3 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

$2.5mn will be underwhelming. 

 

Just 20% above Captain Marvel. Even $3mn will be just 40% up. Need $4mn  Right @Thanos Legion

$2.5M is great number , perhaps you're not aware that CM opens on national holiday at Wednesday while Endgame will open on usual workday. So beating that by 20% would be awesome and that's still in the low end of projection. After those 5AM show and 24hr show , I believe it has a chance to push the number up to $3.5M. As for $4M , it's difficult if not nearly impossible.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, Claudio said:

$2.5M is great number , perhaps you're not aware that CM opens on national holiday at Wednesday while Endgame will open on usual workday. So beating that by 20% would be awesome and that's still in the low end of projection. After those 5AM show and 24hr show , I believe it has a chance to push the number up to $3.5M. As for $4M , it's difficult if not nearly impossible.

Oh, in that case I will take $3.5mn.

[Legion Again]

Don’t want to pollute the waters too much with reddit stuff, but I found this a pretty high quality post. Very mathematically oriented, detailed, and broadly reasonable numbers from what I could see in individuals markets and in total. Lc figures in the comments. As I understand it, just the result of finding what annual growth best fits the data points of TA, AoU, IW and then applying one more year.

 

Spoiler

 

 

Edited April 15, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Pypa94]

18 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Don’t want to pollute the waters too much with reddit stuff, but I found this a pretty high quality post. Very mathematically oriented, detailed, and broadly reasonable numbers from what I could see in individuals markets and in total. Lc figures in the comments. As I understand it, just the result of finding what annual growth best fits the data points of TA, AoU, IW and then applying one more year.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

Definitely possible in Poland, I think it will be even bigger but not so much from that prediction $8,1 million ~ 30,5 million pln ->1,4 million admissions, I think 1,5 million is doable