AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

[Fake]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I was talking about Avatar OS. Avatar WW is toast in 2-3 weeks or so.

Aah. I see. For getting to Avatar OS, OS-Ch needs to get 1.4B minimum (as China will wrap with 625M or so).... After this weekend OS-C will be at 1B with a 200M Fri-Sun, so the requirement would be 3x multiplier. For comparison, IW OS-C did a further 280M after 148M Fri-Sun (2.89x).

[keysersoze123]

That is amazing stuff @MattW. But there would be weeks down the line when the holds would be amazing. We have seen this for almost every blockbuster. Look at Cap Marvel domestic legs for past few weeks and I remember almost every blockbuster seem to do 10-15% more than what we would normally extrapolate for OS.

[KJsooner]

6 minutes ago, MattW said:

My prediction for weeks to come:

	WW Cume	Worldwide	Dom Cume	Domestic	OS Cume	Overseas	OS-Ch Cume	OS-Ch	China Cume	China
Opening	1223.6	1223.6	357.1	357.1	866.5	866.5	535.2	535.2	331.3	331.3
Week 2 (5/5)	2158.5	934.9	613.5	256.4	1545	678.5	966.8	431.6	578.2	246.9
Week 3 (5/12)	2484.9	318.4	730.5	117	1754.4	209.4	1145	178.2	609.4	31.2
Week 4 (5/19)	2626	149.1	789	58.5	1837	82.6	1220	75	617	7.6
Week 5 (5/26)	2700	74	820	31	1880	43	1260	40	620	3
Week 6 (6/2)	2737	37	840	20	1897	17	1277	17
Week 7 (6/9)	2757	20	852	12	1905	8	1285	8
Week 8 (6/16)	2769	12	860	8	1909	4	1289	4
Week 9 (6/23)	2776	7	865	5	1911	2	1291	2
Week 10 (6/30)	2780	4	868	3	1912	1	1292	1
Week 11 (7/7)	2782	2	870	2
Totals	2790		875		1915		1295		620

 

 

IW's overseas-less-China:

	Cume	OS-Ch          weekly
Opening	382.823	382.823
Week 1	714.603	331.78
Week 2	859.001	144.4
Week 3	920.13	61.13
Week 4	953.105	33.105
Week 5	966.925	13.82

 

 

 

 

Mad props dude. 

[Nakamura]

5 minutes ago, MattW said:

My prediction for weeks to come:

	WW Cume	Worldwide	Dom Cume	Domestic	OS Cume	Overseas	OS-Ch Cume	OS-Ch	China Cume	China
Opening	1223.6	1223.6	357.1	357.1	866.5	866.5	535.2	535.2	331.3	331.3
Week 2 (5/5)	2158.5	934.9	613.5	256.4	1545	678.5	966.8	431.6	578.2	246.9
Week 3 (5/12)	2484.9	318.4	730.5	117	1754.4	209.4	1145	178.2	609.4	31.2
Week 4 (5/19)	2626	149.1	789	58.5	1837	82.6	1220	75	617	7.6
Week 5 (5/26)	2700	74	820	31	1880	43	1260	40	620	3
Week 6 (6/2)	2737	37	840	20	1897	17	1277	17
Week 7 (6/9)	2757	20	852	12	1905	8	1285	8
Week 8 (6/16)	2769	12	860	8	1909	4	1289	4
Week 9 (6/23)	2776	7	865	5	1911	2	1291	2
Week 10 (6/30)	2780	4	868	3	1912	1	1292	1
Week 11 (7/7)	2782	2	870	2
Totals	2790		875		1915		1295		620

 

 

IW's overseas-less-China:

	Cume	OS-Ch          weekly
Opening	382.823	382.823
Week 1	714.603	331.78
Week 2	859.001	144.4
Week 3	920.13	61.13
Week 4	953.105	33.105
Week 5	966.925	13.82

 

 

 

I just hope the total of os-china will be higher than that 1295, hope it will be 20 or 25 more, around 1320

Edited May 5, 2019 by Nakamura

[Nakamura]

3 minutes ago, Fake said:

Aah. I see. For getting to Avatar OS, OS-Ch needs to get 1.4B minimum (as China will wrap with 625M or so).... After this weekend OS-C will be at 1B with a 200M Fri-Sun, so the requirement would be 3x multiplier. For comparison, IW OS-C did a further 280M after 148M Fri-Sun (2.89x).

Assume china = 600, dom = 880, os-china = 1320 (33% higher than iw)

600+ 880 + 1320 = 2800

[Nakamura]

9 minutes ago, Fake said:

Aah. I see. For getting to Avatar OS, OS-Ch needs to get 1.4B minimum (as China will wrap with 625M or so).... After this weekend OS-C will be at 1B with a 200M Fri-Sun, so the requirement would be 3x multiplier. For comparison, IW OS-C did a further 280M after 148M Fri-Sun (2.89x).

You think os-china after this 2nd weekend can pull another 320M ? 

[Fake]

17 minutes ago, Nakamura said:

Assume china = 600, dom = 880, os-china = 1320 (33% higher than iw)

600+ 880 + 1320 = 2800

China will do 625M. It will be close to 610M after next Sunday itself.

[Fake]

12 minutes ago, Nakamura said:

You think os-china after this 2nd weekend can pull another 320M ? 

Like I mentioned, IW OS-C pulled another 280M after 2nd weekend. And EG 2nd weekend was around 35% higher than IW. I would wager another 350M or so for 1.35B OS-C finish.

[Nakamura]

7 minutes ago, Fake said:

China will do 625M. It will be close to 610M after next Sunday itself.

I dont trust china legs lol

I just hope it can hit 600 lol

[Sam]

29 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That is amazing stuff @MattW. But there would be weeks down the line when the holds would be amazing. We have seen this for almost every blockbuster. Look at Cap Marvel domestic legs for past few weeks and I remember almost every blockbuster seem to do 10-15% more than what we would normally extrapolate for OS.

This is a good point. I remember IW had quite decent late legs in OS markets towards the end of its run relative to its big numbers.

 

I’m assuming Aladdin and Godzilla both releasing day-to-date with US (?), if so then EG will only have Pikachu to contend with next weekend, and will have pretty much a free weekend after that to recover enough.

 

 

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Sam said:

This is a good point. I remember IW had quite decent late legs in OS markets towards the end of its run relative to its big numbers.

 

I’m assuming Aladdin and Godzilla both releasing day-to-date with US (?), if so then EG will only have Pikachu to contend with next weekend, and will have pretty much a free weekend after that to recover enough.

 

 

I am expecting next weekend drop to be harsh as its coming off holiday weekend. Where the legs truly set in is after 5th weekend. It generally plays in markets where multiple movies co-exist and generally movies have good long run in those markets. I dont remember tracking IW that closely but I could remember quite a few blockbusters in last dozen years where we initially put in a number but final finish was way better. Avengers 2012 and Furious 7 are among those. I even remember Ice Age 3. We start at 500m after it had opened almost all major markets and it finished very close to 700m.

[MattW]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

That is amazing stuff @MattW. But there would be weeks down the line when the holds would be amazing. We have seen this for almost every blockbuster. Look at Cap Marvel domestic legs for past few weeks and I remember almost every blockbuster seem to do 10-15% more than what we would normally extrapolate for OS.

I may be a bit on the conservative side, but OS legs weren't anything noteworthy for IW.  If I have the right totals it added another 25 after the week it made 13.8m (992+377).

And on the domestic side my guess above is only slightly more stingy than what IW had.  The major difference is the bigger 2nd weekend drop and the level that puts EG at going into its 2nd set of weekdays.  

 

I'll readily admit I'm generally too conservative though.  Hopefully that's still true here.

Edited May 5, 2019 by MattW

[Nakamura]

 

[TalismanRing]

3 hours ago, Nakamura said:

 

WW Total Through Friday: $1.914B

 

That means an EST $176m WW Saturday

 

China Sat:  $21m

US Sat: Est $61-62m (according to RTH)

OS-China:  $93-94m

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

WW Total Through Friday: $1.914B

 

That means an EST $176m WW Saturday

 

China Sat:  $21m

US Sat: Est $61-62m (according to RTH)

OS-China:  $93-94m

2.2+ by sunday

[honestbharani]

So, MCU will have WW record, SW will have Domestic record and Avatar will have OS record.   Perfectly balanced...  :p

 

 

 

Though, the Avatar one is ridiculous and only due to the ER of 2009.

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, honestbharani said:

So, MCU will have WW record, SW will have Domestic record and Avatar will have OS record.   Perfectly balanced...  😛

 

 

 

Though, the Avatar one is ridiculous and only due to the ER of 2009.

i would say that dom record and os record are 50/50 not enough info fro this 2 right now

Edited May 5, 2019 by john2000

[pepsa]

12 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

WW Total Through Friday: $1.914B

 

That means an EST $176m WW Saturday

 

China Sat:  $21m

US Sat: Est $61-62m (according to RTH)

OS-China:  $93-94m

If these numbers hold (Don't know how trust worthy the source is they use) also that would mean a 79.8% jump from Friday OS-China seems very high but possible.

 

Sunday

China: $8.2m

DOM: $47.5m (Using 61.5m)

OS-China $76.7m (18% drop from sat) a decent amount of internation markets see a jump on Sun so it's hard to know the drop)

 

This would give $2222.4m thr sunday and this would be crazy good. I am not sure if it will go this high. I would be more cautious. 

But hey I woudn't mind that number!

 

[charlie Jatinder]

$98-100mn Approx Overseas Saturday. $1498-1500mn cume. By Sunday $1575-1580mn Approx. Estimated $265mn FSS.

 

http://bit.ly/EGOverseas

 

 

[john2000]

6 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

$98-100mn Approx Overseas Saturday. $1498-1500mn cume. By Sunday $1575-1580mn Approx. Estimated $265mn FSS.

 

http://bit.ly/EGOverseas

 

 

good

Edited May 5, 2019 by john2000