DEADPOOL 2 WEEKEND THREAD | Spoilers = BANNED INTO OBLIVION | Dp2 125M and 300 WW debut...Asgard Sun update pg 123

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

It's not like projecting a 2.4 is multi is so far fetched though. Sure Deadpool 2 could only get a 2.2 but I don't see the word of mouth not helping it do better.

I guess we will see how Saturday plays out to get a better picture. 

[Nova]

Just now, baumer said:

 

That wasn't directed at you.   

Sorry 

[eXtacy]

So its heading for 120m if Saturday bumps for 20% from true Friday. I honestly think moving it forward two weeks may have hurt it a little. 

[EmpireCity]

4 minutes ago, Nova said:

I'm just asking you an honest question because you are the box office expert but if you were to see a film have 38% of its OD be from previews, would you think it was going to have good legs in the future? Again I don't follow box office like you (you get paid for this lol) but from my little experience of following films like DP2 aka the CBM genre, I just don't see where the legs would be coming from. 

 

There were a lot of graduations tonight (the was yet another school shooting at one after it ended in Alabama) and it is a busy weekend for people.  If the numbers aren't great tomorrow and Sunday or the hold isn't great next week, then you can freak out.  

 

Baumer has this right, when you follow the box office you cannot let it affect you like this.  I am guessing you are young and will figure that out as you get older.  

 

Deadpool 2 is getting relatively incredible reviews, it is going to open over $120m on a non-Holiday weekend as a hard R movie, it will very likely make $300m+ domestic and a ton of money overseas and give Fox a giant profit.  They are giving Deadpool 3 a green light as of this weekend.  

 

What in the world is there to be worried or disappointed about?  If you are a fan, enjoy the shit out of this.  

 

 

[Barnack]

9 minutes ago, Nova said:

but if you were to see a film have 38% of its OD be from previews, would you think it was going to have good legs in the future?

Looking at those preview/od ratio:

http://www.boxofficereport.com/previewgrosses.html

 

Does not seem to be very telling, if at all.

 

For one it is a lot a measuring of the hype much more than the legs, Force Awakens has arguably the best blockbuster legs since Avatar, it's preview were almost 50% of the opening day.

 

I know that now Word of mouth is much faster than in the past and does not require monday at work/school to start to kick in, will affect even the opening weekend now. But the Friday ?

 

OD/PG ratio

Suicide Squad: 3.166

Civil War: 3.02

Black Panther: 3.014

BvS: 2.944

 

Civil War/Suicide Squad had a better OD relative to the previews than Black Panther...... virtually the same for BvS

 

It is a lot a hype measurement and a lot does it play for a night audience vs a day audience measurement also, DP 2 had a lot of both those factor.

Edited May 19, 2018 by Barnack

[Mekanos]

125 million would be a great opening by all accounts, it just comes down to legs. Falling 50M+ from DP1's domestic finish might be seen as disappointing for people who were hoping the franchise would grow a la the MCU. Thankfully they were smart to not let the budget get out of control and it will still be a very profitable film. I'm curious about foreign markets too. 

Edited May 19, 2018 by Mekanos

[LonePirate]

$52M for its OD makes it the 16th top grossing film of the year. After Saturday, it will jump into the Top 10 for the year. After Sunday, it will leap into the Top 5. That's pretty impressive considering we're a couple of weeks away from June.

[BoilingHotCoffee]

so how's everyone doing today 

[EmpireCity]

5 minutes ago, Nova said:

I don't think any of us are saying it could have done better. What we are saying is that the preview to OD ratio is simply not good and doesn't paint a pretty picture for how the rest of the weekend will play out. Pretty much off of its preview number, we expected it to do better than it did. Not that a $52M OD for an R-rated flick is bad. 

 

Lol.  It's the all-time fucking record for an R rated movie.  

 

ALL FUCKING TIME.  NEVER BEEN DONE BEFORE.  

 

Maybe you need a couple of xanax.  

[Lordmandeep]

1 minute ago, LonePirate said:

$52M for its OD makes it the 16th top grossing film of the year. After Saturday, it will jump into the Top 10 for the year. After Sunday, it will leap into the Top 5. That's pretty impressive considering we're a couple of weeks away from June.

It is but you do know that BP and iw have sold like 30% of all tickets this year alone lol...

[KP1025]

9 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Letting how much you enjoyed a film affect what you’re rooting for re: its box office run is healthy, and presumably a big part of why we’re all here.    

And then there are those that root against a film just because they don't want it to cross another film they like better. 

[Joyous Legion]

5 minutes ago, baumer said:

And that's my cue to go to bed.  This is the stuff I find unbearable here at times.  A movie sets a record but that record isn't good enough.  People say it's a disappointment and now the film will miss 300.

 

Good night.

Breaking records by less than 10% is just another way to say failure 

[Nova]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Lol.  It's the all-time fucking record for an R rated movie.  

 

ALL FUCKING TIME.  NEVER BEEN DONE BEFORE.  

 

Maybe you need a couple of xanax.  

I do. I think my final exams are getting to me and then coupled with me not following box office like I used to 

[harrycaul]

There's a bit too much reading emotional states that probably aren't there into some posts.

 

Seems to happen a lot on this forum, strangely.

 

Anyway, DP2 is a candidate to be very heavily front-loaded. Its audience is super hyped about it, but it may not be big enough to sustain legs. Its appeal is specialized, although specialized in what happens to be a broad genre at the moment.

 

It's not inconceivable that it will burn bright but short. We'll see.

 

Note- I have zero emotional involvement in this film. I saw the first one, liked it. I'll see this one in six months on video, probably like it.

[Webslinger]

6 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

It's definitely somewhat surprising the OD ended up being more so much more frontloaded to previews than Guardians 2 was, though I'm still thinking it'll have a strong Sat number to put it in the $125M range.

 

Certainly still boffo box office, but the strong late marketing push and positive reviews inflated expectations in the last week or so, and I think Fox did make a bit of a miscalculation by not going for the August release date.

Agreed. I know hindsight is 20/20 and all, but it definitely feels like Deadpool 2 would have benefited from taking advantage of a traditional off-month as its predecessor did. Looking at the potential for longevity, even Suicide Squad stabilized somewhat in late August after its horrendous second weekend drop (its multiplier still wasn't great, but it was far from the sub-2.0 for Batman v. Superman despite a comparable second weekend drop), so it stands to reason that Deadpool 2 probably would have enjoyed late legs (not to mention some boost from summer weekdays thanks to colleges not being back in session yet) in August even if it had taken a hard fall in its second weekend.

[titanic2187]

52-53m is a big number but somehow it doesn't feel satisfying....

[EmpireCity]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

52-53m is a big number but somehow it doesn't feel satisfying....

Here is another one.  

 

Deadpool 2 has the largest opening day for an R-rated movie all-time and multiple people are upset or downplaying it or saying it doesn't feel satisfying and some even saying it is a flat out bad number.

 

You can't make this shit up.  

[Lordmandeep]

Wonder what batman vs superman legs would be during x-mas...

 

Hmmm..

Edited May 19, 2018 by Lordmandeep

[harrycaul]

Maybe they could have eked out some more money with a different release date. But sometimes that cash flow dollar today is worth more than that cashflow $1.10 in 6 months.

[Zakiyyah6]

5 minutes ago, Webslinger said:

Agreed. I know hindsight is 20/20 and all, but it definitely feels like Deadpool 2 would have benefited from taking advantage of a traditional off-month as its predecessor did. Looking at the potential for longevity, even Suicide Squad stabilized somewhat in late August after its horrendous second weekend drop (its multiplier still wasn't great, but it was far from the sub-2.0 for Batman v. Superman despite a comparable second weekend drop), so it stands to reason that Deadpool 2 probably would have enjoyed late legs (not to mention some boost from summer weekdays thanks to colleges not being back in session yet) in August even if it had taken a hard fall in its second weekend.

It's not even hindsight for myself and others. We said that we thought this date was harmful to the film. Deadpool has no reason to be in the traditional Summer movie season. So if it under performs according to their and some people on here's expectations domestically then Fox only has themselves to blame.

Edited May 19, 2018 by Zakiyyah6