Weekend Thread....Please read the staff announcement pg 104 (Solo 29.2...DP 23.3...Adrift 11.5)

[pepsa]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Imagine if Ocean's 8 makes more than Solo. This forum will be crumbling down if that happens. 

I don't think we would mind

[LonePirate]

In the Book Club vs. I Can Only Imagine legs showdown, after 15 days, it currently stands like this:

 

Book Club: 3.138

I Can Only Imagine: 2.834

 

ICOI hit 3.058 on day 16 and 3.232 on day 17. BC needs $23.4M to pass ICOI's multiplier (4.856) and it needs $25.3M to hit a 5.000 multiplier. Its performance next weekend against O8 will tell us if that is possible although it is looking very likely right now.

 

I Feel Pretty needed $64K on Friday (following its $60K on Thursday) to reach a 3.000. Overboard will hit a 3.000 multiplier today (Saturday). It's always nice to see comedies perform well and leg it out to being mid-range hits. Derbez will undoubtedly receive a hefty salary increase for his next film as he can draw in Latinx moviegoers to the cinema. 

 

[Barnack]

4 hours ago, boomboom234 said:

They aren’t even that good haha deadline just reported that 

 

Second, industry sources inform Deadline that Last Jedi missed its $600M merchandise revenue target with a $450M take.

I am not sure what is your reference to say $450 is not that good.

 

Other studio tend to get what around 15% in licensing sales ? You need to sales for likes 3 billions of stuff to get 450m.

 

According to deadline Paramount was making with Transformer around 30m in merchandise revenues (I would imagine they expect Hasbro to get most of it ? sound low):

https://deadline.com/2015/03/transformers-age-of-extinction-profit-box-office-2014-1201391233/

 

When SpiderMan was one of the biggest merchandise sellers in the world with the Cars franchise or at least by far the biggest superheroes franchise in the world able to push for over 1billion in sales some year's, Sony was not making nearly has much from it (105m from spider-man 2, 150m from spider-man 3)

 

450m is enormous, specially when you consider that part of that business has extremely high margin (the part were you let people put your logo on stuff they do and they gave you a percentage of the sales with you spending or doing nothing).

 

Warner brothers complete year of theatrical product consumer products revenues for example:

2014: 271m

2015: 269m

2016: 321m

 

Last Jedi reportedly beat that by itself, Star Wars was really in a different space than almost everything else merch wise, if not everything else.

 

 

Edited June 2, 2018 by Barnack

[MrGamer]

How many Bison Dollars will it take for Solo to break even? 

[pepsa]

6 minutes ago, Barnack said:

I am not sure what is your reference to say $450 is not that good.

 

Other studio tend to get what around 15% in licensing sales ? You need to sales for likes 3 billions of stuff to get 450m.

 

According to deadline Paramount was making with Transformer around 30m in merchandise revenues:

https://deadline.com/2015/03/transformers-age-of-extinction-profit-box-office-2014-1201391233/

 

When SpiderMan was pretty much the biggest merchandise sellers in the world with the Cars franchise Sony was not making nearly has much (105m from spider-man 2, 150m from spider-man 3)

 

450m is enormous, specially when you consider that part of that business has extremely high margin (the part were you let people put your logo on stuff they do and they gave you a percentage of the sales with you spending or doing nothing).

 

Warner brothers complete year of theatrical product consumer products revenues for example:

2014: 271m

2015: 269m

2016: 321m

 

Last Jedi reportedly beat that by itself, Star Wars was really in a different space than almost everything else merch wise, if not everything else.

 

 

I would agree that is nuts.

The only thing I could think of that might make it not super is if:

Sale for TFA were 1B

RO: 0.4B

TLJ: 0.45B

 

In that if disney saw that it dropped prety hard they might not like the declining revenue. This is the only reason i could imagine.

 

Edited June 2, 2018 by pepsa

[YLF]

12 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

 

LMAO I bet the comments under this post are just lovely.

[BK007]

10 minutes ago, filmlover said:

This is more or less how the month will play out. Everything else isn't gonna make much of a dent (Tag in particular feels like a dud waiting to happen).

The month pretty much has only 3 mainstream choices, all of which of course have led in the poll. 

 

But it's also atypical of an Internet forum to have those choices, so it doesn't really say much at all. 

I do wonder where the GA rates their films. After the plunge in RT/Flixster ratings, there seems to be no comparable place. 

I guess the GA don't really rate their films anywhere. Perhaps the only way to truly measure this would be if it were in the cinema chain's system/app whatever that proceeded to give you some kind of reward points. I'm sure Moviepass has something. 

Otherwise it's really just looking at the BO, legs and whatever limited data we can get on home video/streaming sales. 

I don't think anyone could have predicted this amount of apathy for a SW flick. You'd have to see the results play out to believe it. 

[Nova]

Just now, YLF said:

LMAO I bet the comments under this post are just lovely.

The comments in that post are exactly what you expect 

 

Its like the BOT clan who hated TLJ migrated over there 

[Barnack]

4 hours ago, baumer said:

JJ made way more from TFA than you could possibly imagine...

If I imagine ?

Fee for

Directing: 20-25m

Writing: 5-9m

Producing: 2-3m

Participation: 45-95m

Total: 72m to 132m

 

Good ballpark ?

Edited June 2, 2018 by Barnack

[Punishment]

47 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yikes at how BP will drop this weekend. 700m on its own is over, and who knows if Disney will really care to step in. Probably not honestly. They messed it up anyways with that dumb home release date.

A BP IW double feature would have been much better than Solo IW

[Valonqar]

48 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yikes at how BP will drop this weekend. 700m on its own is over, and who knows if Disney will really care to step in. Probably not honestly. They messed it up anyways with that dumb home release date.

NOOOOO! I refuse to believe that! I refuse! Damn you Disney and your home release! Why so early? Why? Why is AWIT still in theaters? Give money to BP!

[Alli]

2 minutes ago, BK007 said:

I do wonder where the GA rates their films. After the plunge in RT/Flixster ratings, there seems to be no comparable place. 
 

Why did this suddenly happen? It's weird.

[Barnack]

3 hours ago, Thrylos 7 said:

I am sorry but if we are talking about strictly theatrical runs then these are the numbers.

Why would one ever do something like this ? What possible useful information could one achieve to make by talking about theatrical, what does those revenues have in any way that the others windows does not ?

 

Buying Star Wars for 2b+2b would have never make sense for the strictly theatrical runs.

 

Take a giant 1.4b run, even domestic heavy and the best high disney term.

 

Say 650m dbo, 750m intl, that say a 760m world rental (65% dbo, 45% world)

 

Say your movie did cost net 265m with a 185m world release and is giving to the talent/star/producer just 20% of it's rental, that a 602m cost.

 

You have 160m left, how many of those do you need to make to ever make back 4b with a good ROI of say just 10% (not that good for Disney) ? A ridiculous amount.

 

The Star Wars complete franchise making over 5 billion a year in sales when it does good must be taken into account or once you amortize the acquisition cost in your production cost you will never make a profit from theater from those movies, even turning 6 Last Jedi/Awaken type of performance in a row.

 

 

Edited June 2, 2018 by Barnack

[Jay Beezy]

22 minutes ago, pepsa said:

I don't think we would mind

When does the embargo lift for Ocean's, though?

[Spidey Freak]

56 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yikes at how BP will drop this weekend. 700m on its own is over, and who knows if Disney will really care to step in. Probably not honestly. They messed it up anyways with that dumb home release date.

It's passing the 699M point today with the dollar theatre run still to go. Even if it falls short of 700M on its own, it will reach a point where the fudging will be *ahem* a piece of cake compared to what it took for Tangled to reach 200M and the (vain) efforts made for AWiT to reach 100M.

[Barnack]

3 hours ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Ah the toy grosses, the home video/streaming grosses ...yep we are at justice league territory again somehow. As if toys from various franchises , from batman figures to Freddie Krueger t-shirts aren’t being sold without movies at the horizon.

They do tend to be helped by the marketing surrounding a movie (and by is popularity if it get popular too):

 

 

Or if you have good study that show a weak or no link I would be interested, it is hard to find some.

[MovieMan89]

16 minutes ago, Barnack said:

I am not sure what is your reference to say $450 is not that good.

 

Other studio tend to get what around 15% in licensing sales ? You need to sales for likes 3 billions of stuff to get 450m.

 

According to deadline Paramount was making with Transformer around 30m in merchandise revenues (I would imagine they expect Hasbro to get most of it ? sound low):

https://deadline.com/2015/03/transformers-age-of-extinction-profit-box-office-2014-1201391233/

 

When SpiderMan was one of the biggest merchandise sellers in the world with the Cars franchise or at least by far the biggest superheroes franchise in the world able to push for over 1billion in sales some year's, Sony was not making nearly has much from it (105m from spider-man 2, 150m from spider-man 3)

 

450m is enormous, specially when you consider that part of that business has extremely high margin (the part were you let people put your logo on stuff they do and they gave you a percentage of the sales with you spending or doing nothing).

 

Warner brothers complete year of theatrical product consumer products revenues for example:

2014: 271m

2015: 269m

2016: 321m

 

Last Jedi reportedly beat that by itself, Star Wars was really in a different space than almost everything else merch wise, if not everything else.

 

 

Yes, it is on a different level than anything else. Hence why Disney set the $600m target, something they clearly wouldn’t have done if they didn’t think it was more than doable. The fact that it misses by so much is just further proof of how TLJ disappointed all around. No one has ever said it wasn’t hugely profitable, but that has nothing to do with failing to meet pretty much all expectations from Disney. Expectations that were not unrealistic for what it should have done. You can’t just look at it as any film, there has to be context of the franchise. And sure, TLJ still made bucketloads for them, but now mere months and one fIlm in the franchise later and they’re already in a spot where an SW film may not make very much for them, even with additional revenues. That was always the whole point of why TLJ disappointing mattered. What it meant going forward. 

[Alli]

8 minutes ago, Jay Beezy said:

When does the embargo lift for Ocean's, though?

Tuesday apparently

 

 

Edited June 2, 2018 by Alli

[YLF]

Wont BP get a dollar theater expansion? Also they could literally do an expansion for 1 weekend like Wonder woman got and get to 700M. If Disney was trying to "fudge" freaking AWIT then I doubt they wouldn't try to do it for BP that is only a little over 1M away.

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

It's passing the 699M point today with the dollar theatre run still to go. Even if it falls short of 700M on its own, it will reach a point where the fudging will be *ahem* a piece of cake compared to what it took for Tangled to reach 200M and the (vain) efforts made for AWiT to reach 100M.

Why is the dollar run still to come? Shouldn’t it have already been there? Can’t say I’ve ever heard of a dollar run coming so long after the home video release. Also, kid’s films are an entirely different beast for dollar runs and long legs. A kids film can make $1m very very slowly over like a 2 month value theater run. That’s pretty unusual for anything else though. BP will need like a 5x multi from this weekend to get there. That’s extremely difficult this late in a run for anything that’s not a kid’s film.