Weekend Thread....Please read the staff announcement pg 104 (Solo 29.2...DP 23.3...Adrift 11.5)

[Joyous Legion]

Why did I just have to slog through 5 pages about Grace RandomNumberGenerator. Can’t we go back to talking about Wikipedia vandalism and Action Point more :/ 

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Dear god, now RT is claiming reports put Solo north of 450m after marketing. These "reports" of the costs for it just keep climbing and climbing. What I wouldn't give to be a fly on the wall in certain Disney exec meetings on this one...

Not new. That's the same as what Deadline was claiming which is probably where RT got their info. 

[MovieMan89]

@Barnack

Assuming that 450m production and marketing cost for Solo is legit and say it makes 380-400 WW, what would your guesstimates be for potential loss? 

[Jonwo]

Book Club is already in profit from just the US alone considering Paramount only paid $10m for three territories. 

[poweranimals]

Hopefully IW's Sunday was underestimated again and adjusts into the top 3.

[Mojoguy]

So SW fans saying Solo would have a low 2nd weekend drop, that drop turned out to be shit.

Typical big post Memorial day weekend drop.

[PPZVGOS]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

Also Grace Randolph isnt worth mentioning at all. Theres a fine line between beeing wrong or naive and beeing stupid. She crosses the line with basically every word that comes out of her mouth. If one searches a good box office channel on YT, theres really only Dan Murrel's "Charting with Dan" on Screen Junkies.

Grace Randolph is spectacularly hit-and-miss. On some things she is correct, on others, completely wrong. But I will definitely give her one thing, she is prolific. She has a video ready for just about any news coming from Hollywood within hours from those news breaking. She has in fact built a good following of her own. 

 

As for Dan from SJs, I have to say that I am somewhat disappointed with his show. I can learn much more from just about any random poster in here than from Dan. For a clearly intelligent person, he seems unaware of a lot of BO basics. 

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

Grace Randolph is spectacularly hit-and-miss. On some things she is correct, on others, completely wrong. But I will definitely give her one thing, she is prolific. She has a video ready for just about any news coming from Hollywood within hours from those news breaking. She has in fact built a good following of her own. 

 

As for Dan from SJs, I have to say that I am somewhat disappointed with his show. I can learn much more from just about any random poster in here than from Dan. For a clearly intelligent person, he seems unaware of a lot of BO basics. 

Yeah, Dan does falter a lot with understanding box office. I like SJ, but again box office isn't really their specialty. 

[harrycaul]

27 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Dear god, now RT is claiming reports put Solo north of 450m after marketing. These "reports" of the costs for it just keep climbing and climbing. What I wouldn't give to be a fly on the wall in certain Disney exec meetings on this one...

This is lower than numbers some have been throwing around here.

[Nova]

So I like to lurk around other sites that talk box office and I just stumbled upon a comment on a site that claimed "Han Solo will drop 1,100 theaters next weekend." 

 

I swear some of the hot takes on here are bad, but god damn we are all Einstein's of box office compared to some of the shit I've seen else where 

[YLF]

31 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Dear god, now RT is claiming reports put Solo north of 450m after marketing. These "reports" of the costs for it just keep climbing and climbing. What I wouldn't give to be a fly on the wall in certain Disney exec meetings on this one...

Yikes. way worse than AWIT. Even if it did just ok making 700M it wouldve been fine, but this is a BOMB

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

So I like to lurk around other sites that talk box office and I just stumbled upon a comment on a site that claimed "Han Solo will drop 1,100 theaters next weekend." 

 

I swear some of the hot takes on here are bad, but god damn we are all Einstein's of box office compared to some of the shit I've seen else where 

Well, when even all the paid gurus predicted Solo this weekend at $40M and up, it doesn't take much to seem like Einstein:)...

 

Seriously, though, if it does lose 1100 theaters, I will now laugh out loud next weekend (it would take some epic weekday drops this week to have even a small chance at that...but then again, Solo's run has been epic so far:)...

[Mojoguy]

I see Solo dropping 50% when I2 opens and 50% again when JW2 opens.

Its goose is truly cooked, because it doesn't have the 4 weeks on the biggest screens requirement that TLJ had.

Theaters are breathing a sigh of relief that they can start dropping it soon.

Edited June 3, 2018 by Mojoguy

[Mojoguy]

Solo's "magic legs" will turn out to be the "magic bullet" of the boxoffice. Often talked about but not really existing.

Solo's OW and 2nd weekend drop shows the general audience doesn't give a shit about that movie.

[Mekanos]

Just imagine Solo's drop this weekend if Deadpool 2 kept its original release date.

Edited June 3, 2018 by Mekanos

[Brainbug]

13 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

Grace Randolph is spectacularly hit-and-miss. On some things she is correct, on others, completely wrong. But I will definitely give her one thing, she is prolific. She has a video ready for just about any news coming from Hollywood within hours from those news breaking. She has in fact built a good following of her own. 

 

As for Dan from SJs, I have to say that I am somewhat disappointed with his show. I can learn much more from just about any random poster in here than from Dan. For a clearly intelligent person, he seems unaware of a lot of BO basics. 

 

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yeah, Dan does falter a lot with understanding box office. I like SJ, but again box office isn't really their specialty. 

 

I agree that Dan is extremely basic with his BO coverage. But at the same time, for people outside the Movie/Box office world, its still very helpfull and gives a good idea how all of this works. Also, atleast he tries to always back up his arguments with actual facts which i can appreciate.

[Joyous Legion]

2 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

Just imagine Solo's drop this weekend if Deadpool 2 kept its original release date.

Well, without the huge competition from Deadpool last weekend it would have premiered with a 150 3-day, so naturally the % drop would be a bit worse.

Edited June 3, 2018 by Thanos Legion

[Nova]

7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Well, when even all the paid gurus predicted Solo this weekend at $40M and up, it doesn't take much to seem like Einstein:)...

 

Seriously, though, if it does lose 1100 theaters, I will now laugh out loud next weekend (it would take some epic weekday drops this week to have even a small chance at that...but then again, Solo's run has been epic so far:)...

I see it losing like 150-300 theaters which is the norm after 2 weekends of release. The thing that might hurt it next weekend is I think it's losing some of its premium screens to O8. Otherwise it should stabilize. 

 

The good thing for Solo is that a lot of the films that are out now, have been out for a while so they're more likely to bleed out theaters when I2 and JW2 come out and it'll get to keep more theaters. 

[Mekanos]

Disney might have to fudge Solo to 200 million. This is basically the same weekend drop as Apocalypse, and its multiplier takes it to 200 exactly, but this summer is considerably more stacked than 2016. 

Edited June 3, 2018 by Mekanos

[Nova]

5 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

Just imagine Solo's drop this weekend if Deadpool 2 kept its original release date.

I am actually wondering if the reason why Deadpool 2 moved up to May 18th had more to do with a contract that Disney had for Solo with theaters. Similar to the TLJ one. Like Solo was going to keep all the big screens even when Deadpool 2 came out. I know moving to May 18th allowed it to have one week of IMAX that it wasn't going to get with June 1st. 

 

But either way that drop wouldn't have been pretty imo