jack-jack INCREDIBLES 2 Weekend |🏆| ACTUALS: 182.7M OW | O8 19M, Tag 14.9M, Solo 10M, DP2 8.7M, IW 5.4M

[dxmatrixdt]

I thought Incredibles 2 would suffer because the announced plot states it takes place right after the end of the original.  That would make it seem like rewatching part 1 a priority vs like Harry Potter where you just dwell in the dark and get back on board the Hogwarts Express.  

 

the killer demand that brought in a ridiculous 18.5m in previews kept up with the unpredictable jump to 59m.  weekdays are likely to find Finding Dory strength.  Dorys Fri = Sat which equaled about 0.43 of Monday.  Using this for Incredibles 2 of 53m Friday is 22.79.  

 

what is going to happen Thursday though?  Jurassic World is supposed to be set 3 years after the original remake.  Incredibles 2 could be on path for another 18.5 next Thursday.   Jurassic World made 18.5 back in 2015.

[Joyous Legion]

45 minutes ago, Chewy said:

 

E9 < 200M OW

Hmm, good point. Guess we’ll need Brie Larson or Frozen:Let it Goer to come through with that 210.

[Fanboy]

Really good Saturday number for Incredibles 2. I know it's probably unlikely, but I really want it to beat Inside Out's record for biggest weekend at #2 next week. 

[Joyous Legion]

2 minutes ago, Fanboy said:

Really good Saturday number for Incredibles 2. I know it's probably unlikely, but I really want it to beat Inside Out's record for biggest weekend at #2 next week. 

The record is only 90.5, it’s not unlikely at all that Incredibles could beat that.

[Ledmonkey96]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

Hate to be a party pooper here, but if you want to go by admissions, Shrek the Third may still hold on to the title. 161M adjusted without any 3D or PLF. I2 probably needs to go closer to 185 than 180 to beat those admissions. 

Considering BoM's 'inflation adjustment' is just the average ticket price wouldn't that already be included? 

[Fake]

So Incredibles didn't stay flat from true Fridays (like TS3 or Dory), but actually jumped 10% (like Cars 3). So, it looks headed for 180M+ after all assuming a 15% drop on Sunday (Cars 3 dropped 15.2%).

 

However, we should be prepared for a relatively higher drop on Monday compared to TS3 and Dory. Dory dropped 43.5% and TS3 51.3%. I'd say 55% drop for I2.

 

Projections:

 

Fri: 71.5

Sat: 59.0

Sun: 50.0 (180m cume)

 

Mon: 22.5

Tue: 27.0

Wed: 20.5

Thu: 20.0 (270m cume)

 

Fri: 27.0

Sat: 35.0

Sun: 28.0 (90m 2nd weekend, 360 cume)

 

Needs 3.67x multiplier off 2nd weekend to hit 600m. Doable, as FD did 3.74x and TS3 did 4.17x.

[Fanboy]

4 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

The record is only 90.5, it’s not unlikely at all that Incredibles could beat that.

Against JW opening I don't think it will drop <50%.  Stranger things have happened though, I guess.  

[pepsa]

2 hours ago, baumer said:

Is it possible that this could behave more like Beauty and the Beast instead of Finding Dory?  This is a massive opening and hence the multiplier could be less than 3.  I honestly have no idea and I'm just spit-balling here, but according to Mojo, the largest pure animated opening is Dory at 135 million.  This is going to best that by at least 45 million.  And the fact that this is going to open in BatB territory, could it mean that the multiplier could be similar?

What I am thinking is that this might have the advantage that it opened this big. Movie taht opened above $200m all had great legs, especially for their openings. Execpt for TLJ and IW, but the OW for TLJ was big and the OW from IW was even bigger and it had way better legs than CW or AOU because once you open exeptionaly big you get that event style of run.

 

So because I2 also seem to be a event movie and an animation with an A+, I really do think this will help legs massively and I don't see this going below $600m. Btw I might be comepletly wrong.

[Jake Gittes]

Shouldn't forget that the only previous summer Pixar joint that had JW-sized competition in its second weekend was Cars 2, which dropped 60% against Transformers 3. I doubt the entirety of that collapse was due to bad WOM. So yeah a drop over 50% next weekend shouldn't be entirely ruled out.

[IronJimbo]

Pretty cool that it's beating out Beauty and the Beast.

Wonder what overseas will look like.

[pepsa]

1 hour ago, bladels said:

Is Disney gonna put I2 estimate at $170M with 30%+ drop on FD Sun? I'll not be surprised 

Nah knowing Disney, they will probably try to sneak in a 40% drop, they seem to really like that number 

[pepsa]

18 minutes ago, Fanboy said:

Against JW opening I don't think it will drop <50%.  Stranger things have happened though, I guess.  

It won't drop big vs JW, it might hurt JW more than JW will hurt I2. 

[Fanboy]

3 minutes ago, pepsa said:

It won't drop big vs JW, it might hurt JW more than JW will hurt I2. 

It'll probably depend on which one has more sellouts. 

[Mekanos]

700M is an insane amount to ask for with this movie. Even 650M is pushing it. It should clear a 3x multiplier without a problem but I think it will just barely miss TLJ and TA.

[Rthmessiah]

quick flyby2

o8 7.4,Tag 4.9, Solo 3.5,DP2 3.3 

[a2k]

did not see this coming - ts3 and dory's sat staying flat from true friday gets thrown out of the window. bo is unpredictable forever.

 

I2

18.5

53.0

59.0 (+11%)

52.5 (-11%)

= 183.0

 

O8

5.9

7.4 (+25.4%)

6.2 (-16.2%)

= 19.5 (-53.1%)

 

DP2

2.3

3.3 (+43.5%)

2.9 (-12%)

= 8.5 (-39.9%)

Edited June 17, 2018 by a2k

[Mekanos]

I seriously underestimated how much the Incredibles was loved. I think it became even more popular over the last 14 years and the superhero boom has only helped it. I thought 600M was a pipe dream for this movie... Christ almighty. I3 got greenlit with Friday's numbers.

[Stewart]

1 hour ago, FTF said:

I2 > IW club? 

 

 

I already made that back in March before IW released 😈

[The Futurist]

The Feast or famine nature of modern box office is getting out of hand.

Crazy.

[kayumanggi]

This will obliterate SOLO in FOUR days.