Weekend Thread | Hotel 3 $44.1 Skyscraper 25.4, Ant Man’s size does matter with $28.8M

[YM!]

46 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

All of these to me have a fair shot minus Spider Verse. For some reason, I see that having zero chance whatsoever at $200M+ DOM.

 

I think Ralph 2 and Mary Poppins feel like locks to do $200M+ DOM.

I would add The Grinch in that equation. Yes it looks like shit and yes trailer views are poor but audience reception is sadly good and Illumination has a strong track record. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

13 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I would add The Grinch in that equation. Yes it looks like shit and yes trailer views are poor but audience reception is sadly good and Illumination has a strong track record. 

I was pretty close to doing so. It's a holiday movie and an animated movie so it should get a bullshit boost from families. Looks trash you said. Right now, I have it at $150M+ DOM.

[Deja23]

3 hours ago, AJG said:

The Rock responds to the Skyscraper Box Office

 

 

Did he just spoil his own movie?

[dudalb]

Illumination films is very good at peddling really mediocre to crappy movies to the GA. And the Grinch Holiday angle will just make it easier.

The Grinch look likes shit....an insult to the Dr Suess  classic.. but it will make a lot of money, sadly.

Biggest problem that the Spidey animated film has is it's animated. For most people Animated film about Comic Book Charrecters are the domain of TV,not threatrical movies.

And I don't think "The Incredibles" quite counts as a CBM.Yes, its' inspired by Comic Book Heros, but it's not taken from an actual comic book. Major difference.

[JohnnyGossamer]

38 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Biggest problem that the Spidey animated film has is it's animated. For most people Animated film about Comic Book Characters are the domain of TV,not theatrical movies.

And I don't think "The Incredibles" quite counts as a CBM.Yes, its' inspired by Comic Book Heros, but it's not taken from an actual comic book. Major difference.

Yeah. This is why I too don't see anything over $200M+ DOM. Even with critical acclaim.

[Blankments]

8 hours ago, LonePirate said:

That is a horrible, albeit somewhat expected, PTA for Leave No Trace. Any future expansions seem unlikely unless they are minor. Some of the big market theaters will be dropping it while some smaller markets pick it up. $5M looks to be the ceiling, although it could go lower. Reviews are not coming to the rescue for it.

im hoping for one more expansion, I think WOM will be kind to it. My mother, who is never into movies like it, really enjoyed it and I feel like that's the general response I've seen from non-film nerd people on social media

[kayumanggi]

On 7/16/2018 at 12:44 AM, fastclock said:

Indonesia is pretty crazy for Marvel movies. Probably as crazy as S. Korea.. except it doesn't quite have the legs.

The Philippines (my country) is crazy as well, but it's mirroring the performance of North America. Indonesia's number on the other hand is insane. The market has expanded significantly.

[MOVIEGUY]

#FIRSTSUMMERBLOCKBUSTERWITHANAMPUTEEASTHELEAD #FIRSTROCKMOVIEWHERETHEWOMANSAVESTHEROCK #GROUNDBREAKING

[Blankments]

@WrathOfHan, better late than never, right?

 

16x:

 

Mission: Impossible – Fallout: Black Panther, Annihilation, Ready Player One, Black Panther Round 2, Avengers: Infinity War, A Quiet Place, Avengers: Infinity War Round 3, Deadpool 2, Book Club, Action Point, Adrift, Ocean’s 8, Deadpool 2 Round 2, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Tag, Sicario: Day of the Soldado

 

11x:

 

The Grinch: Isle of Dogs, Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero, Deadpool 2, Show Dogs, Ocean’s 8, Incredibles 2, Incredibles 2 Round 2, Incredibles 2 Round 3, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Incredibles 2 Round 4

 

10x:

 

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation: Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, Early Man, Peter Rabbit, A Wrinkle in Time, Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero, Show Dogs, Incredibles 2 Round 2, Incredibles 2 Round 3, Incredibles 2 Round 4, Ant-Man and the Wasp

 

9x:

 

The Darkest Minds: Blockers, A Quiet Place, Tully, Deadpool 2, Action Point, Adrift, Hereditary, Deadpool 2 Round 2, Ant-Man and the Wasp

 

8x:

 

Christopher Robin: A Wrinkle in Time, Love, Simon, Isle of Dogs, Book Club, Show Dogs, Incredibles 2, Incredibles 2 Round 2, Incredibles 2 Round 3

Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!: The Post, Love, Simon, Tully, Book Club, Adrift, Ocean’s 8, Ocean’s 8 Round 2, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

 

7x:

 

Venom: Black Panther, Game Night, Black Panther Round 2, Blockers, Avengers: Infinity War, Avengers: Infinity War Round 2, Avengers: Infinity War Round 3

Smallfoot: Paddington 2, Early Man, Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero, Incredibles 2 Round 2, Incredibles 2 Round 3, Incredibles 2 Round 4, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

 

6x:

 

Alpha: Dunkirk Round 2, Geostorm, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 3, Last Flag Flying, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

 

5x:

 

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse: Peter Rabbit, Love, Simon, Pacific Rim: Uprising, Ready Player One, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Searching: Book Club, Adrift, Hotel Artemis, Hereditary, Tag

Crazy Rich Asians: Adrift, Hotel Artemis, Ocean’s 8, Tag, Ocean’s 8 Round 2

Bumblebee: Incredibles 2, Incredibles 2 Round 2, Incredibles 2 Round 3, Incredibles 2 Round 4, Ant-Man and the Wasp

Dog Days: Show Dogs, Incredibles 2 Round 2, Incredibles 2 Round 3, Leave No Trace, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

 

3x:

 

Teen Titans Go! To The Movies!: Paddington 2, Peter Rabbit, Show Dogs, Incredibles 2

The Meg: Deadpool 2, Hereditary, Deadpool 2 Round 2, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Bad Times at the El Royale: Hotel Artemis, Ocean’s 8, Tag, Ocean’s 8 Round 2

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World: Incredibles 2, Incredibles 2 Round 2, Incredibles 2 Round 3, Incredibles 2 Round 4

Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2: Incredibles 2, Incredibles 2 Round 2, Incredibles 2 Round 3, Incredibles 2 Round 4

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald: Ready Player One, Avengers: Infinity War, Avengers: Infinity War Round 2, Ant-Man and the Wasp

The Spy Who Dumped Me: Ocean’s 8, Tag, Ocean’s 8 Round 2, Ant-Man and the Wasp

A Star is Born: Ocean’s 8, Ocean’s 8 Round 2, Sicario: Day of the Soldado, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

 

2x:

 

Duck Duck Goose: My Little Pony: The Movie, Wonder, Coco

Alita: Battle Angel: Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 2, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 3, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 4

Mortal Engines: Star Wars: The Last Jedi, The Commuter, A Wrinkle in Time

Can You Ever Forgive Me?: Unsane, Isle of Dogs, Book Club

Skyscraper: Pacific Rim: Uprising, Action Point, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Bohemian Rhapsody: Deadpool 2, Deadpool 2 Round 2, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Operation Finale: Ocean’s 8, Ocean’s 8 Round 2, Sicario: Day of the Soldado

A-X-L: Show Dogs, Incredibles 2, Ant-Man and the Wasp

 

2x:

 

Polaroid: Wind River, Happy Death Day

The New Mutants: Thor: Ragnarok, Thor: Ragnarok Round 2

Eighth Grade: Love, Simon, Isle of Dogs

The Happytime Murders: Action Point, Superfly

Mile 22: Adrift, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

The Nun: Superfly, Tag

Night School: Blockers, Tag

The Girl in the Spider’s Web: Ocean’s 8, Ocean’s 8 Round 2

White Boy Rick: Superfly, Sicario: Day of the Soldado

The Equalizer 2: Superfly, Sicario: Day of the Soldado

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms: The Greatest Showman, Ant-Man and the Wasp

The Little Stranger: Hereditary, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

Mary Poppins Returns: A Wrinkle in Time, Leave No Trace

The House with a Clock in Its Walls: Ant-Man and the Wasp, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

Wonder Park: Leave No Trace, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

 

1x:

 

The Current War: Wind River

Farmageddon: A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Early Man

Blindspotting: Tully

Johnny English Strikes Again: Tully

A Simple Favor: Adrift

Peppermint: Adrift

City of Lies: Hotel Artemis

Widows: Superfly

Creed 2: Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

BlacKkKlansman: Sicario: Day of the Soldado

Kin: Sicario: Day of the Soldado

First Man: Sicario: Day of the Soldado

The Predator: Sicario: Day of the Soldado

Dumbo: Ant-Man and the Wasp

The Old Man and the Gun: Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

Little Women: Leave No Trace

Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween: Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

[MovieMan89]

5 hours ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Are folks expecting this to drop sharply when M:I opens? I'm trying to figure out why its holds will all of the sudden become worse rather than improve week to week. Don't holds week to week generally improve later in a films run, especially in July? It's coming off of $30M+ (333.4 to 363.9) this past Monday through Sunday. Gotta figure it'll have grossed $380M+ after this coming Sunday. I just don't see how it will have any issue crossing $400M+ DOM. I honestly think it has a pretty real chance at $410M+ DOM. Wouldn't shock me in the least if it passed Wonder Woman's DOM total.

It gets to 415 if it follows JW's holds from here, but that had great late legs and got a huge labor day expansion that added another 10m to its run. So 400-405 seems right to me. 

[dxmatrixdt]

I'm guessing there is no numbers today?

[dxmatrixdt]

good numbers so far.  hopefully the estimates go up after Hawaii is counted

[scoobysaurus]

8 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

It gets to 415 if it follows JW's holds from here, but that had great late legs and got a huge labor day expansion that added another 10m to its run. So 400-405 seems right to me. 

402.5 gets it past JP's lifetime DOM gross so that's a pretty good milestone IMHO. 2nd highest grossing Jurassic movie both DOM and WW.

 

Btw, does anyone know JP's adjusted WW gross? Using DOM inflation rates it appears to have crossed $2b WW this year but I was wondering if anyone has more accurate numbers.

Edited July 17, 2018 by scoobysaurus

[grey ghost]

13 hours ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Hope I'm wrong. I want to see pretty everything listed breakout. Great for movie houses across the states. I just don't see a wide audience embracing Spider-Verse. I think casual viewers will be confused. And, it's animated. Unfortunately, I think when a superhero property is animated rather than live action, the GA sees it as second rate and doesn't run out to see it. Now, this does not apply The Incredibles as it was only and always animated. I'm thinking more so Batman and Stars Wars animated films that were given a wide release theatrically.

 

I think moviegoers associate Spider-man with live action. Not to mention, he just appeared in Infinity War and will appear next July in his own feature. And, yeah, I know this is a different Spider-man, not Peter Parker.

 

All that said, I do think it'll definitely do $100M+ DOM.

 

Mary Poppins is a widely adored cinematic property with a huge nostalgia hook and Wreck It Ralph adjusts to $215M+ DOM. I imagine that's why folks have each pegged at $200M+ DOM.

You shouldn't underestimate Lord and Miller tho.

 

They are break out masters.

[grey ghost]

14 hours ago, Pandamia! said:

If it’s still in the top 10 While being under 200m it’ll be a really frontloaded year.  

 

I reckon Mamma Mia 2, Fallout, Christopher Robin, Venom, First Man, Bohemian Rhapsody, Grinch, FB, Ralph 2, Spider Verse, MPR, Aquaman and Bumblebee all have a fair shot to go over Ant-Man 2 at this point (obviously not all of them will)

Maybe 3 of them, tops.

 

Ppl forget how hard it is to hit 185/600 m.

[Krissykins]

The Rock seemed to ignore the domestic opening lol. 

 

Wonder if he’s secretly pissed off. 

[YM!]

19 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Maybe 3 of them, tops.

 

Ppl forget how hard it is to hit 185/600 m.

Not necessarily. Domestic (have AMATW at about $210M) I can see 6 of them over AM2.  An additional 3 have a shot. Point is it probably won’t be in the top ten domestic.

 

So...

1.) Panther $699.99999999999fudge99999

2.) IW $675M

3.) I2 $600M

4.) JWFK $415M

5.) 💀💩L 2 $320M

6.) Poppins $285M

7.) Grinch $250M

8.) Aquaman $230M

9.) Beasts 2 $225M

10.) Ralph 2 $220M

11.) Solo $211M

12.) Fallout $210M

13.) AMATW $205M

 

Assuming AMatW does $630M it’d be about number 6 worldwide. Ralph 2, Fallout and Beasts 2 will likely top it putting it at #9. Poppins Returns will probably top it. Aquaman and Venom certainly could top it. Alita has a chance due to China. If MM2 breakouts here it has a strong chance too. Grinch is a maybe as Dr Seuss movies don’t do well OS but Illumination does, then again before they became big Lorax did around $120M OS. Bohemian, First Man, Robin, and Spiderverse have no chance. Ant Man and The Wasp might be number 10 but it’s a breakout away from losing the spot.

 

So...

1.) IW $2.07B

2.) Panther $1.35B

3.) I2 $1.25B

4.) Fallen Kingdom $1.2B

5.) Beasts 2 $800M+

6.) 💀💩L 2 $730M

7.) Fallout $670M-$700M

8.) Ralph 2 ~$650M

9.) Poppins ~$650M

10.) AMATW $630M

Edited July 17, 2018 by YourMother the Edgelord

[JohnnyGossamer]

9 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

It gets to 415 if it follows JW's holds from here, but that had great late legs and got a huge labor day expansion that added another 10m to its run. So 400-405 seems right to me. 

You're likely spot on but we shall see here. These weekdays and upcoming weekend will be telling. If it  hold's impressively Monday through Sunday, I see no reason why $410M+ DOM is out of the question. It'll almost assuredly be less than $20M away from $400M DOM after this Sunday.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

You're likely spot on but we shall see here. These weekdays and upcoming weekend will be telling. If it  hold's impressively Monday through Sunday, I see no reason why $410M+ DOM is out of the question. It'll almost assuredly be less than $20M away from $400M DOM after this Sunday.

 

I think at this point, no one, not even Thrylos, can deny that this is a massive hit world wide.  It took a dive domestically but is going to finish with 1.25 or if Japan is really strong, 1.3 billion WW.  Those are staggering numbers and just because it didn't match the zeitgeist total of the last one, doesn't make it a failure.  JWFK will go down as one of the top 15 grossing films of all time.  

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I think at this point, no one, not even Thrylos, can deny that this is a massive hit world wide.  It took a dive domestically but is going to finish with 1.25 or if Japan is really strong, 1.3 billion WW.  Those are staggering numbers and just because it didn't match the zeitgeist total of the last one, doesn't make it a failure.  JWFK will go down as one of the top 15 grossing films of all time.  

Are you seeing something barely over $400M DOM? Or, like me, do you still think a total of $410M+ DOM is very likely? I just don't see the holds improving down the stretch. Not to mention, it just had easily it's best hold this past weekend. It's only $36M short of $400M DOM as of yesterday.