Weekend Thread | Hotel 3 $44.1 Skyscraper 25.4, Ant Man’s size does matter with $28.8M

[JohnnyGossamer]

9 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Oh come on losing 700m worldwide in just 2 years was huge and there wasn't anything weird about the shock.

 

Imagine Avengers 4 making 1300m (less than Age of Ultron)

Ultron isn't far and away the highest grossing flick DOM of all-time and a $2.07B earner WW. That's a poor comparison.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Kind of misread that too. There would've been nothing wrong with IW doing $1.3B+ WW. You're saying that would've been a problem? Isn't that what a lot of people expected - maybe a little more - going into the release?

[IronJimbo]

10 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Kind of misread that too. There would've been nothing wrong with IW doing $1.3B+ WW. You're saying that would've been a problem? Isn't that what a lot of people expected - maybe a little more - going into the release?

After Infinity War part 1 people will be expecting 1800m+ from Infinity War part 2.

There will be meltdowns everywhere it dropped like The Last Jedi did.

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

After Infinity War part 1 people will be expecting 1800m+ from Infinity War part 2.

There will be meltdowns everywhere it dropped like The Last Jedi did.

Ah, I see you meant IW2. Yeah. I could see that. That's not a problem for it though. People could meltdown all they like. They'd be wrong.

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Ah, I see you meant IW2. Yeah. I could see that. That's not a problem for it though. People could meltdown all they like. They'd be wrong.

It's definitely a problem as the studio would have lost hundreds and millions of potential dollars and someone will probably get sacked for it. It will probably cause second thoughts about planned releases aswell.

 

The film will make a profit though yes.

[Valonqar]

TA4 is not gonna drop like TLJ cause OS markets eat TA up. Unlike SW which has no traction in LA and Asia minus Japan. 

[sfran43]

 

[Moviefanatic]

1 hour ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Assume JWFK grossing $400M+ DOM is now a done deal. Needs less than $37M to get there coming off a $15.5M+ weekend and we're in the heart of summer weekdays. Thinking $410M+ DOM total now.

 

Does I2 still have a realistic shot at $600M+ DOM? Or, will it fall just short?

599.9 million for I2. The Disney way 

[YM!]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

this is the start of the end

 

just watch 😎 IWp2<IWp1 and BP2<BP1

 

1 hour ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

It is going to be weird when IW2 does something like $625M+ and BP2 does something like $525M+ DOM each and folks are freaking out around here. Similar to the weird insanity when TLJ did $620M+ DOM.

I sort of agree, IW2 I can see an increase OW but weak legs (> or = 2.4x) ($270M OW * 2.4x = $650M DOM is my highest point). WW I have about the same give or take $100M-$150M.

 

Panther 2 is a question mark, OS I could see a small increase (5%-10%). DOM I don’t expect BP2 to increase or even be flat towards the first mainly due to how big the first one was since it like WW hit a zeitgeist but I can see a slight decrease ala DP2 to around the $630M-$640M range. 

[TwoMisfits]

For everyone who wants Spidey in an Ant-Man 3, can they even do that in the Sony-Disney deal?  How many movies does Spidey HAVE to show up in for Disney vs how many Disney supers HAVE to show up for Spidey films for Sony?  I know they made a deal for Avengers and Civil War, but this deal didn't include all the single character movies, right?

 

I'm assuming the actor would have shot down becoming the next Samuel L Jackson, especially since the studios aren't the same...

Edited July 16, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[WrathOfHan]

13 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

For everyone who wants Spidey in an Ant-Man 3, can they even do that in the Sony-Disney deal?  How many movies does Spidey HAVE to show up in for Disney vs how many Disney supers HAVE to show up for Spidey films for Sony?  I know they made a deal for Avengers and Civil War, but this deal didn't include all the single character movies, right?

 

I'm assuming the actor would have shot down becoming the next Samuel L Jackson, especially since the studios aren't the same...

It's probably allowed. I believe Sony gets at least one other hero in each of their Spider-Man movies, but Spider-Man showing up in Ant-Man shouldn't be any different than Civil War or Infinity War.

Edited July 16, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[ZeeSoh]

2 hours ago, SteveJaros said:

 

To me, "flop" can't just be about finances. Something can lose money and still be a smash hit. "Hit" and "flop" refer at least as much to public response as to costs, because the public doesn't care about the costs. 

Otherwise, we end up with absurd conclusions like saying a movie that made $8m on a $2m budget (made a nice $4m profit) is a big hit while one that made $100m on a $80m budget (and lost $30m) is a flop, when truth is, the second movie was a lot more popular than the first. The second movie was a popular hit while a studio flop, the former was a popular dud while a studio hit. 

 

So "flop" is subjective, depending on the POV. Have to specify whether you are talking from the public or studio POV.

 

 

Im taking time away from my vacation to ask WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK!

 

Please share what you’re smoking

[MrGlass2]

25 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

For everyone who wants Spidey in an Ant-Man 3, can they even do that in the Sony-Disney deal?  How many movies does Spidey HAVE to show up in for Disney vs how many Disney supers HAVE to show up for Spidey films for Sony?  I know they made a deal for Avengers and Civil War, but this deal didn't include all the single character movies, right?

Spidey is more likely to show up in 2.

[LonePirate]

44 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

That is a horrible, albeit somewhat expected, PTA for Leave No Trace. Any future expansions seem unlikely unless they are minor. Some of the big market theaters will be dropping it while some smaller markets pick it up. $5M looks to be the ceiling, although it could go lower. Reviews are not coming to the rescue for it.

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Alright, fair enough. Though for all I care, the Sony thing was an exception to the rule in their part. JL cost a presumed 300 million, could be a little more, could be a little less.... I don't find it that hard to believe that a money loss from a 650+ WW gross (of which 230 are DOM) could have happened.

I am not sure why it would be an exception to the rules, 22 Jump Street, Amazing Spider Man 2 both shown quite a difference between rough estimate and reality.

 

Could have lost money obviously, Amazing Spider Man 2 got close to loose money with a 308.2m budget + participation, but was a bit weaker dbo and they didn't control the merchandise sales like WB.

[LonePirate]

5 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Spidey is more likely to show up in 2.

I think you’re being presumptuous here with your belief that a second film will even be made.

[filmlover]

8 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

That is a horrible, albeit somewhat expected, PTA for Leave No Trace. Any future expansions seem unlikely unless they are minor. Some of the big market theaters will be dropping it while some smaller markets pick it up. $5M looks to be the ceiling, although it could go lower. Reviews are not coming to the rescue for it.

It's actually doing pretty great, actually. $5M total is a big win for a very tiny film like this.

[Jake Gittes]

7 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

That is a horrible, albeit somewhat expected, PTA for Leave No Trace. Any future expansions seem unlikely unless they are minor. Some of the big market theaters will be dropping it while some smaller markets pick it up. $5M looks to be the ceiling, although it could go lower. Reviews are not coming to the rescue for it.

Horrible is too strong a word. It's not gonna be a breakout but it can still expand to 500+ theaters and stay above or close to $1m for a couple more weekends. I do think they took it too wide too quickly, though. With a 700% theater increase it's basically impossible to have a good PTA hold. 

[a2k]

- JL did 2.19x it's 300 prod budget ww. That's like Ant-Man2 having a final global tally of 162*2.19 = 355 . But it's gonna do around 3.5-4x it's prod budget which is great especially cause not a fluke OS market or two is bringing in all the money. Dom returns are the strongest and here it's gonna go well past it's prod budget.

 

- JW2 has a decent shot at 2.75x multi, 407 dom. Should manage 2.73x at least.

[Valonqar]

Talk about AM&TW flopping is beyond ridiculous. Sure, the movie didn't get as big IW boost dom as boxoffice amateurs like myself expected, and female lead narrative expired with Wonder Woman (again, we who thought Wasp would significantly bump the interest) but the movie's doing what it was mean to do - increase over the original and it's especially increasing in lucrative Asia. Also, another reminder that OS numbers are partial because the movie's yet to open in many key markets including China (where it should do really well considering reception in rest of Asia).