Hustlers | Sept 13th, 2019 | STX | Jennifer Lopez, Constance Wu | 25th Most Profitable Movie of 2019

[JB33]

Finally saw the trailer and have to admit the film looks great! It's a top priority movie for the girlfriend too - plus I owe her for dragging her to It Chapter Two - so I'll definitely be going to see this. It's the easy number 1 choice that weekend over The Goldfinch.

[Eric Atreides]

 

[Napoleon]

Can ‘Hustlers’ Really Deliver Record $26M Live-Action Opening For Jennifer Lopez & STX? – Box Office Forecast

 

While everyone is expecting New Line’s It: Chapter 2 to tee us off into what is expected to be a lucrative fall-holiday season with at least a $90 million-$110 million start, one shocker that hit tracking last Thursday: STX Entertainment’s Jennifer Lopez-Constance Wu stripper crime drama came on with a hot $24M-$26M projection.

 

Typically we post projections ASAP for tentpoles, but this one gave us pause: Really?

 

Historically, stripper movies are a challenge at the box office, the last two notable ones being the 1990s pair Striptease and Showgirls which failed to dazzle with $12.3M and $8.1M opening weekends, respectively, while costing $45M-$50M.

 

However, many tracking services are forecasting that Hustlers is set to be a record opening for STX and Jennifer Lopez’s best live-action opening of all time at the domestic B.O. How the heck is that? You mean the STX that is reportedly seeking a half billion in fresh capital? Typically, Lopez averages in the mid-teens for an opening. But $20M? Lopez’s best live-action opening of all  time was the 2005 New Line comedy Monster-in-Law ($23.1M), which repped Jane Fonda’s return to the big screen after a hiatus. An $20M-plus opening for Hustlers would be a ray of sunshine for STX — the challenged mini-major that saw bombs this summer with UglyDolls and Poms — possibly beating the studio’s previous record debut, Bad Moms ($23.7M).

 

So, we talked with several sources in box office analytics and distribution, and, yes, no B.S. here: Hustlers as of this minute is poised to do $20M-plus — that is if it doesn’t get deep-sixed by critics after its world premiere at the Toronto Film Festival (which would put the pic’s opening in the teens). However, those with knowledge tell us that STX wouldn’t chance a TIFF launch for the film unless they thought they had the goods. Following test screenings, females have embraced this high-concept empowerment story about how the women take down the man. Directed and written by Lorene Scafaria, Hustlers is based on “The Hustlers at Scores,” the New York magazine article by Jessica Pressler about the high-end strippers who turned the tables on their greedy Wall Street clients. The pic was put in turnaround by Annapurna last fall, with STX giving it the greenlight.

 

The pic is told from the POV of Constance Wu, who is mentored by Lopez’s star stripper at New York City’s Scores — not just in the trade, but the hustle as well that they put into place. Riverdale‘s good girl Betty Cooper Lili Reinhart plays against type in the pic as a stripper who comedically vomits on cue (that talent comes in handy with the hustle). Cardi B, who used to be a stripper, also has a cameo in Hustlers. All together, this foursome screams closed to 275 million followers on social media across Twitter, Instagram and Facebook. That’s one factor contributing to the pic’s wattage in addition to the diverse cast’s alchemy, say sources. Lopez counts 187M followers alone, with Cardi B at 63M-plus. Some also attribute Lopez’s recent celeb renaissance as a factor that’s fueling the pic; Variety reported today in its weekly cover story that the multi-hyphenate’s latest tour, It’s My Party, racked up close to $55M after 38 sold-out shows in August.

 

One tracking service reports that Hustlers is the first choice for women with a low double-digit score, well ahead the single-digit scores of such female-skewing pics as Ocean’s 8, A Star Is Born, Girls Trip, Crazy Rich Asians, Bad Moms and Magic Mike XXL. Wow.

 

Will Hustlers be No. 1? No, because it’s following in the wake of It: Chapter 2, which should lead in its second weekend with at least $36M. But it will be No. 2. Pic opens against Warner Bros’ drama The Goldfinch, another TIFF opener, which is expected to do around $12M.

 

Other bright light indicators for Hustlers, social media monitor RelishMix reports; “With two trailers in rotation and over two weeks till release, Hustlers is engaging an audience who are reposting on YouTube at an exceptional rate of 45:1 which is far beyond the norm for any sub-genre of crime titles and nearly 30M views on YouTube alone.” That’s rate isn’t that far from Warner Bros’ all-star femme caper Ocean 8’s viral rate last June, which was 47:1 (but a $41.6M opening).

 

Hustlers also touts a strong social media universe of 290M across YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and Instagram, well above the average for other crime dramas which counted 109M at the same point in their campaign.

 

And how about advance ticket sales? Fandango reports Hustlers is pacing ahead of STX’s Bad Moms Christmas at the same point in their respective sales cycles. That latter movie posted a three-day total of $16.7M.

 

Word on the street has been that STX moved all of their summer pics, i.e. 21 Bridges, Brahms the Boy II, Playmobil and My Spy later into Q4 or Q1 2020 so it could have the cash to open Hustlers. Hustlers cost $20M before P&A per the studio ($30M with others who have knowledge of the project) and was shot reportedly in 28 days. STX has prided itself on its thrifty, demo-targeted marketing campaigns; rival sources tell Deadline that to open a pic north of $20M at the B.O., it takes about $30M in P&A spend. With projection numbers like these for Hustlers, the pressure is on STX to open this film.

 

Does the success of Hustlers boost STX’s financial profile? Too soon to tell, but it’s the slate that makes a studio of this size, not just the success of one pic. STX back in January celebrated its first No. 1 weekend win with Lantern’s The Upside, which debuted to $20.3M. Overall, it made $108.2M domestic and $122.7M worldwide.

 

But after a summer that has seen some counter-programming pics challenged (the latter half has shown some promising resurgence with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Good Boys, Yesterday and Angel Has Fallen), it truly would be amazing if Hustlers works on the big screen.

 

Netflix might have to be concerned that streaming doesn’t completely own the low- to mid-budget film space.

 

https://deadline.com/2019/08/jennifer-lopez-hustlers-cardi-b-lili-reinhart-constance-wu-box-office-projection-1202704574/

[Alli]

On 8/26/2019 at 1:25 AM, JB33 said:

. It's the easy number 1 choice that weekend over The Goldfinch.

[Alli]

gotta say i'm surprised at the tracking. for a movie about strippers, the trailer doesn't have that many views on youtube. most videos on youtube that show women in various states of undress have millions of views. The main trailer on stx channel has only 2.9M views

Edited August 27, 2019 by Alli

[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, Alli said:

gotta say i'm surprised at the tracking. for a movie about strippers, the trailer doesn't have that many views on youtube. most videos on youtube that show women in various states of undress have millions of views. The main trailer on stx channel has only 2.9M views

 

What about the Instagram, facebook/twitter type of platform views ? Do we have an ideas for those ?

[Alli]

2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

What about the Instagram, facebook/twitter type of platform views ? Do we have an ideas for those ?

An article on Forbes says the trailer has been viewed online 115 million times . I find that hard to believe. on youtube it is doing pitiful

Edited August 27, 2019 by Alli

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, Alli said:

An article on Forbes says the trailer has been viewed online 115 million times . I find that hard to believe. on youtube it is doing pitiful

It is a target audience that I imagine way more easily watching the trailer on their social media feed than typing youtube.com to go watch it too.

[TLK]

The trailer on JLo's Instagram has 16 million views. The facebook trailer has 18 million+ views. I don't consider trailer views stats to be particularly relevant unless they are over the top great or really bad but Hustlers has a lot of trailer views FWIW.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

 

[Krissykins]

11 hours ago, Alli said:

An article on Forbes says the trailer has been viewed online 115 million times . I find that hard to believe. on youtube it is doing pitiful

See below

11 hours ago, Barnack said:

It is a target audience that I imagine way more easily watching the trailer on their social media feed than typing youtube.com to go watch it too.

Exactly. Especially the social media accounts for Jlo, Cardi B, Lizzo, the Riverdale girl etc.  

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

 

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[Napoleon]

Great interview with Constance Wu for the LA Times where she addresses her Twitter meltdown and rumors of diva behavior in the Hustlers set:

 

https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/movies/story/2019-08-29/constance-wu-hustlers-social-media-2019

 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

 

 

 

[Vanilla]

I just don’t see it. 

 

12 million opening. 30 million total. 

[JB33]

Pretty much all the ladies in my life (except my Mom, thankfully) are dying to see this. There's a pretty big audience out there for it. People are talking about it.

[Krissykins]

I can’t imagine reviews impacting this on opening weekend.

 

Quite a lot of the cast have a built in fan base. Bad reviews certainly won’t mean the difference between an opening in the 20’s or teens. 

[JB33]

13 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I can’t imagine reviews impacting this on opening weekend.

 

Quite a lot of the cast have a built in fan base. Bad reviews certainly won’t mean the difference between an opening in the 20’s or teens. 

Agreed. People are going to see this movie regardless. I think it looks great and I'll be there with some friends on the 13th. Don't think I'll check out one single review.

[Napoleon]

 

[75Live]

that was the first trailer I have seen for this film and for me, it looks awful.  But I'm sure I'm in the minority on that.  Definite pass for me but I still think it will do pretty good to good numbers overall