Dec 21-23 Weekend Thread | Sat#'s (Asgard pg 60) - Aqua 21.8, MPR 8.8, BB 7.2, SMSV 6.9, Mule 3.8 | Discuss Pitbull's musical work here

[jedijake]

Imagine if MPR makes TFA's multiplier. It would be no better than Into The Woods. People talk about "legs" and while the holidays will help it be consistent for a little while, after the holidays I think MPR is going to fade REALLY fast despite any praise Blunt gets.

 

TGS was more mature and artsy. It appealed to teens more and had the love story attached. It had hotter names for young people (teens) and was more Broadway-like to appeal to the 20's and 30's (and 40's for that matter). MPR has Blunt but I'm not sure if she alone can bring in folks from all ages by herself.

 

And if Aquaman's fun factor, despite the RT scores, can bring in the numbers it is, I HOPE that JJ Abrams has brought us a fun SW movie to close out that story. Aquaman, Jumanji, and looking back years ago at Night at the Museum should tell us something. People LOVE fun films over the holidays. MPR seems fun but in a different way that isn't appealing to the masses in this day and age.

 

Disney will end up with quite a bit more underperformers this year than big successes.

[MCKillswitch123]

Well, as it turns out, you were right, @Jessie. People really don't care about Mary Poppins as much as any of us thought. I really believed this had everything to perform phenomenally. Emily Blunt was never a huge star, but with A Quiet Place this year and all of the buzz surrounding MPR, especially after the raves on social media and all of the Best Actress talk for her, I believed that she would totally help sell this movie to a mass audience, similarly to Lin-Manuel Miranda himself. And musicals - or music-related films - have been huge lately, and fuck, you still have A Star Is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody making money as we speak. Hell, BR is on its way to 700M WW, which is ridiculous, while ASIB is the 2018 Best Picture frontrunner to my knowledge and has one of the biggest songs in the world right now (The Shallow) in its soundtrack. If MPR really is as bland and doesn't pop out as much as people say it does.... it makes sense that it would be overlooked. But I still find it odd that one of Disney's greatest icons and someone known across multiple generations has basically been rejected by audiences and may or may not do between Greatest Showman numbers and 200+, when it really should be doing better than that. But oh well, it is what it is.

 

Let's see how everything shapes out, cause December is all about legs, but still, far from a great start for anything other than Aquaman, which is doing pretty spectacularly considering the thud that was Justice League and its impact on the DC brand, with Momoa's Aquaman, in my eyes, not really being one of the highlights of the movie. I mean, he was cool and entertaining, but didn't really pop out as much as I anticipated (and that Atlantis scene was horrendous). But people were still psyched the fuck out for this movie nonetheless, though, and James Wan, being the God he is, made the ultimate GA's-are-so-going-to-eat-this-up theatrical Christmas gift for WB to rack in a shit ton of money. Which, despite them having a fantastic 2018, is a welcome rebound for their blockbuster side after the disappointment of Beasts 2, and ESPECIALLY for the DCEU side of things given what went down with JL. It would be hilarious if Aquaman outgrossed BVS and even hit the billion mark WW, as I think it should be looking up at 300+ DOM and close to that in China. Meanwhile, Shazam should continue DC's slow return to form and audience trust, so let's see what happens from here on out.

 

As for Bumblebee, all I hope is for it to have great legs and for it to pave the way for the Hasbro toyline franchises to have good talent behind them. Sure, Bay made billions of dollars with his films (and I still like Transformers 1 and don't dislike Dark Of The Moon) but what he crafted just wasn't all that compelling and it was bound to bore audiences sooner than later. It happened 5 movies in, and now is a more than welcome time for the franchise to have revitalized itself with something much more akin to what old school Transformers fans always wanted to see, rather than Bay splooging all of his Bay quirks and fetishes on the screen with absolutely no one keeping him under control. Plus, I love Hailee Steinfeld pretty big time, so I would always stan for this movie anyway.

 

And finally, I don't know if Spider-Verse can hit 200 anymore, because it is kinda performing like a superhero movie more than a family animation, but, with the holidays right here and the insane wom to its advantage, it will obviously shoot for a high distance. I believe it can and should be able to outgross Lego Batman, at least.

[filmlover]

Welcome to Marwen likely won’t even make $15M with a holiday boost and Mortal Engines won’t even reach $20M. What an embarrassing Christmas season for Universal.

 

Mary Queen of Scots pulling in higher numbers than The Favourite is highly impressive considering the reviews are much weaker and it hasn’t factored into the awards conversation much at all. Lady Bird and I, Tonya bought Ronan and Robbie some temporary goodwill probably.

[MCKillswitch123]

Btw, how many weekends until Venom outgrosses Solo DOM? And who the fuck saw that coming at the beginning of this year?

[Ash Skywalker]

36 minutes ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

So is it 27.7 or 32?...I am confusion...

32, including all previews and early screening numbers.

[TMP]

$80m OW dead?

Edited December 22, 2018 by TMP

[Yandereprime101189]

This is going likely be one of the more unpredictable Christmas weekends. Pretty sure a lot of releases with fluctuate.

[lorddemaxus]

41 minutes ago, jedijake said:

 

TGS was more mature and artsy.

 

 

LMAO, no. It was dumb and a romantic depiction of exploitation. I have no clue how a movie that has a musical number with Zendaya and Zac Efron can be considered mature and artsy.  

Edited December 22, 2018 by lorddemaxus

[TMP]

$300m dom is still possible after $70m+ opening, no?

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

7 minutes ago, TMP said:

$300m dom is still possible after $70m+ opening, no?

I hope so because if 300M won’t happen then we can kiss every possibility for 1B goodbye.No matter what the film is a huge win.

Edited December 22, 2018 by TheDarkKnightOfSteel

[WrathOfHan]

AQUAMAN (2018)
BUMBLEBEE (2018)
SECOND ACT (2018)
WELCOME TO MARWEN (2018)
MARY POPPINS RETURNS (2018)

 

[Asyulus]

7 minutes ago, TMP said:

$300m dom is still possible after $70m+ opening, no?

Locked. It has very strong WOM and Christmas will help boost its sexy alluring legs.

[Ezen Baklattan]

So The Favourite gained a lot of theaters and is having a 25% Decrease?!?!

 

Yikes. 🤕

[WrathOfHan]

I’m not too surprised Mary QOS made more than The Favourite. Both were tracking incredibly close to each other. WOM is pretty mixed on both of them going by the audience score, so I expect QOS to fade away once Oscar nominations are out. The Favourite will still probably hit 35-40M being one of the frontrunners.

[Valonqar]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

I’m not too surprised Mary QOS made more than The Favourite. Both were tracking incredibly close to each other. WOM is pretty mixed on both of them going by the audience score, so I expect QOS to fade away once Oscar nominations are out. The Favourite will still probably hit 35-40M being one of the frontrunners.

sorry to be a bitch but I need The favorite to fade away cause I want Coogler to make DGA line-up and BP to win Picture. I'm bullish on this outcome so the more competition falls by the wayside thanks to shitty boxoffice the better for my cause. 

[Ezen Baklattan]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I’m not too surprised Mary QOS made more than The Favourite. Both were tracking incredibly close to each other. WOM is pretty mixed on both of them going by the audience score, so I expect QOS to fade away once Oscar nominations are out. The Favourite will still probably hit 35-40M being one of the frontrunners.

Favourite will need to hold on into the new year. Yorgos Lanthimos isn’t exactly known for making surefire crowd pleasers, and I can see it being too weird for older audiences easily. I think it’ll skew younger than most Oscar films.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Spagspiria said:

Favourite will need to hold on into the new year. Yorgos Lanthimos isn’t exactly known for making surefire crowd pleasers, and I can see it being too weird for older audiences easily. I think it’ll skew younger than most Oscar films.

I mean, January has a whopping 7 wide releases over 4 weeks, half of which will fade pretty fast. It’ll be putting up decent grosses and get a boost when nominations are out.

[excel1]

18 minutes ago, TMP said:

$300m dom is still possible after $70m+ opening, no?

 

Jumanji did $400m with a $36m opening last year...

[filmlover]

I imagine most movies will hold well through January considering the month looks completely dead even by the month’s standards with the exception of Glass. Usually the weaker the competition, the better the holds.

[WrathOfHan]

7 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I imagine most movies will hold well through January considering the month looks completely dead even by the month’s standards with the exception of Glass. Usually the weaker the competition, the better the holds.

This January, we had:

 

The Post: 82M

Insidious: 68M

Maze Runner: 58M

12 Strong: 46M

Den of Thieves: 45M

Paddington: 41M

The Commuter: 36M

Hostiles: 30M

Proud Mary: 21M

Forever My Girl: 16M

Total: 443M

 

Next month won’t even come close to that:

 

Glass: 200M (ish)

A Dog’s Way Home: 55M

The Kid Who Would Be King: 45M

The Upside: 40M

Escape Room: 30M

Replicas: 10M

Serenity: 5M

Total: 385M

 

If not for Glass, next month would be super quiet. Despite having a massive grosser in store, theaters are still going to need their screens occupied by the holdovers and expansions.