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That One Girl

Dec 21-23 Weekend Thread | Sat#'s (Asgard pg 60) - Aqua 21.8, MPR 8.8, BB 7.2, SMSV 6.9, Mule 3.8 | Discuss Pitbull's musical work here

By That One Girl, in Numbers and Data

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted
Just now, TalismanRing said:

Way too early to be calling legs on a holiday movie release.

 

To put holiday legs in perspective - the reviled Assassin's Creed did 5.3x

Yeah, but amazing legs on this movie get it to what, The Greatest Showman ($176M DOM) if it makes $22M this weekend?  Legs can save a movie, and TGS is the perfect example, but they can only do so much if you start from a tiny number...and the tinier you start, the more likely you are to get bumped out unless you are pulling amazing holds (ala TGS) while other higher-starting movies collapse...

 

$200M DOM is probably the great legs goal now...and that can't be what Disney planned for when they set the budget and plans for this movie, since it's international draw will be lower than say, a supers or Star Wars movie...

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John Marston Global Phenomenon

John Marston

Posted
Posted
AQUAMAN
Warner Bros.

4,125 		$28,000,000

-- / $6,788
$32,700,000 / 1
N/A
N/A
N/A
2 BUMBLEBEE
Paramount

3,550 		$8,460,000

-- / $2,383
$8,460,000 / 1
N/A
N/A
N/A
3 MARY POPPINS RETURNS
Buena Vista

4,090 		$6,700,000

+65.4% / $1,638
$15,514,671 / 3
N/A
N/A
N/A
4 SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE
Sony / Columbia

3,813 		$4,850,000

+68.1% / $1,272
$52,950,063 / 8
N/A
N/A
N/A
5 THE MULE
Warner Bros.

2,656 		$4,250,000

+141.2% / $1,600
$29,953,465 / 8
N/A
N/A
N/A
6 SECOND ACT
STX Entertainment

2,607 		$2,480,000

-- / $951
$2,480,000 / 1
N/A
N/A
N/A
7 DR. SEUSS' THE GRINCH (2018)
Universal

2,780 		$2,364,000

+57.9% / $850
$247,403,975 / 43
N/A
N/A
N/A
8 RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET
Buena Vista

2,495 		$1,325,000

+56.5% / $531
$158,819,930 / 31
N/A
N/A
N/A
9 WELCOME TO MARWEN
Universal

1,911 		$909,000

-- / $476
$909,000 / 1
N/A
N/A
N/A
10 THE FAVOURITE
Fox Searchlight

790 		$625,000

+129.1% / $791
$8,652,140 / 29
N/A
N/A
N/A
11 MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS
Focus Features

795 		$622,000

+746.3% / $782
$1,925,755 / 15
N/A
N/A
N/A
12 BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
Fox

1,168 		$515,000

+23.2% / $441
$183,346,798 / 50
N/A
N/A
N/A
- MORTAL ENGINES
Universal

3,103 		$511,000

+17.5% / $165
$10,775,960 / 8
N/A
N/A
N/A
- GREEN BOOK
Universal

732 		$365,000

+15.9% / $499
$26,488,971 / 36
N/A
N/A
N/A
- FANTASTIC BEASTS: THE CRIMES OF GRINDELWALD
Warner Bros.

682 		$240,000

-22.5% / $352
$153,832,713 / 36
N/A
N/A
N/A
- ONCE UPON A DEADPOOL
Fox

1,428 		$235,000

+24.7% / $165
$5,199,257 / 10
N/A
N/A
N/A
- A STAR IS BORN (2018)
Warner Bros.

262 		$90,000

-3.8% / $344
$199,811,727 / 78
N/A
N/A
N/A
- THE NUTCRACKER AND THE FOUR REALMS
Buena Vista

241 		$62,000

+8.1% / $257
$54,020,430 / 50
N/A
N/A
N/A
- ROBIN HOOD (2018)
Lionsgate/Summit

230 		$27,000

-47.7% / $117
$30,346,419 / 31 		 
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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted

PS - while I hate this weekend's results for pretty much all the movies, I'm betting this will be the last Christmas season where we get, what, 11 wide releases (from Deadpool PG-13 to Vice) + limited ones (like Peter Jackson's doc) all set to release within 12 days of each other...

 

It will be a good lesson to all the studios that they really can cannibalize each other and destroy each other's box office when they leave 1/2 a month empty and then try to jam everything in to the other half...

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Asyulus Blockbuster

Asyulus

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, boyamama said:

u forgot the promotional budget....total X 3 = break even...so far is a bit loss for WB......

U forgot to learn Math Multiplication.

 

200 x 3 = $600m.

 

FB2 will end above that.

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TheDarkKnightOfSteel Box Office Gold

TheDarkKnightOfSteel

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

200M x 2.5 = 500M to break even. It did. It's now making profit but clearly not as much as WB hoped. still, profit is profit. perhaps they scale down the budget and try to be more like Bumblebee? 

Plus, it's a profit before they even star cou ting money from merchadise and home media sales.

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AniNate Global Phenomenon

AniNate

Posted
Posted (edited)

There are factors besides "cannibalization" you can use to explain why everything is disappointing, but I have to admit it was a curious move to not release anything besides a Schindler's List re-release over the December 7th weekend.

 

 

Edited by tribefan695
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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted
Just now, tribefan695 said:

There are factors besides "cannibalization" you can use to explain why everything is disappointing, but I have to admit it was a curious move to not release anything besides a Schindler's List re-release over the December 7th weekend.

 

 

Only ME might have benefited from that since it did a crash and burn this w/e any way.  Or Marwen. 

 

But anything released that w/e would have lost at least 1/3rd of it's theaters this w/e and a bigger % of it's screens.. 

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MaxAggressor Box Office Gold

MaxAggressor

Posted
Posted

https://deadline.com/2018/12/aquaman-bumblebee-christmas-thursday-night-previews-weekend-box-office-1202524462/

 

Industry estimates show Warner Bros.’ Aquaman after a $27.8M Friday heading toward a $70M opening. Friday’s figure includes Thursday’s $9M, and the overall cume by Sunday of $74.7M will include the Wednesday and Amazon previews. Pic is still within the tracking range we spotted earlier this week ($65M-$70M) and the question remains how much will Christmas spike the pic. Many were predicting a $120M 5-day, and now it could be lower, though some still see $100M+.

 

 

While Bumblebee and Poppins were $300K apart in their FSS per Friday night’s estimates, they’re now $1M apart. Still some below it’s still a fight between the two for today. Paramount’s Bumblebee made more than the Emily Blunt British nanny on Friday night, $8.4M to $6.7M. The yellow VW-robot is eyeing a $22.7M weekend in the range where we saw it, while Poppins is eyeing $21.7M. Frankly it’s a coin-toss who comes out ahead after five days. Some are betting Poppins beats Bumblebee, $37M+ to $33M+.

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

There are factors besides "cannibalization" you can use to explain why everything is disappointing, but I have to admit it was a curious move to not release anything besides a Schindler's List re-release over the December 7th weekend.

 

 

I'd like this, but it wasn't just Dec 7...

 

1 wide release for 1st Dec weekend (Nov 30-Dec 2) - 1 microbudget horror on 2000 screens

0 wide releases for 2nd Dec weekend (Dec 7-9) - re-release of Schindler's list made it to 1000 screens and did nothing

0 wide releases for 5th Dec weekend (Dec 28-30) - now, that will give the stupid amount of movies released between Dec 12 and Dec 25 a chance, but c'mon...this was a dumb month set up any way it goes...something could have kicked here for the ending Christmas run and to get the Mortal Engine/Marwen screens:)...

 

It's telling that the 1st and 2nd weekends were used for pre-previews for the big Dec movies b/c it seems even the studios knew they had to get in front of the mess...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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Manny G Indie Sensation

Manny G

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

Honestly I think there's a few people in here trying to make the Aquaman numbers seem "bad"  or "underwhelming"  to offset the horrible Floppins numbers. That's the real story here...  

Yuuuuup spotted them too. “Aquaman is opening above $65M tracking” oh no it’s bad “Mary floppins is opening $20M below tracking” LEGS LEGS HOLIDAY GREATEST SHOWMAN JUMANJI rinse repeat.

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MrGamer Blockbuster

MrGamer

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

I think Marwen is flopping because the marketing didn't make it clear that this was an open invitation to Marwen.  They made it appear as if it was an invite-only event, when in reality everyone was allowed into Marwen.

Forgive them, TOG. They know not what they do,

 

bEOTe6w.jpg&key=047bf732bb337a36449134f7

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AniNate Global Phenomenon

AniNate

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I'd like this, but it wasn't just Dec 7...

 

1 wide release for 1st Dec weekend (Nov 30-Dec 2) - 1 microbudget horror on 2000 screens

0 wide releases for 2nd Dec weekend (Dec 7-9) - re-release of Schindler's list made it to 1000 screens and did nothing

0 wide releases for 5th Dec weekend (Dec 28-30) - now, that will give the stupid amount of movies releases between Dec 12 and Dec 25 a chance, but c'mon...this was a dumb month set up any way it goes...something could have kicked here for the ending Christmas run and to get the Mortal Engine/Marwen screens:)...

 

It's telling that the 1st and 2nd weekends were used for pre-previews for the big Dec movies b/c it seems even the studios knew they had to get in front of the mess...

Traditionally the post-Thanksgiving weekend has been a no-man's land, and studios generally don't release anything New Year's weekend because everything tends to stay flat and they're essentially leaving a week's worth of box office on the table. 

 

That is why Christmas often gets these films bunched up like this; because studios want to get ahead of the full two weeks off kids have.

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