Weekend Thread: Friday Estimate | LEGO MOVIE 2 $8.5M | WHAT MEN WANT $6.6M | COLD PURSUIT $ 3.64M | THE PRODIGY $2.02M

[SchumacherFTW]

22 minutes ago, TMP said:

It's a two-way race between WB & Universal for Disney's biggest rival and, between Dreamworks & Illumination, Universal is clearly doing much better in the animation field. 

Re: Shazam, having a trailer with Captain Marvel just seems too late. That's 4 weeks before release, can it really sustainably build a lot of anticipation in that time? They should have launched something at the start of January like it was originally planned, have no idea why they delayed it by so long. We'll see.

Kong Skull Island turned things around with a large trailer and marketing surge. Went from being a $30m OW to $60m.

[Jonwo]

23 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

WAG needs serious help, outside of Space Jam 2 and Super Pets, nothing else can potential reach Lego Movie 1 numbers. It’s amazing that Disney’s biggest rival is doing the worst at animation and family films especially with it’s heritage.

I don't think WAG should expect every film to do Lego Movie 1 numbers, following what Sony did with using familiar IP and controlled budgets could work out well for them. Smallfoot was a modest hit for them and actually ended doing more than Storks. 

 

I think Scooby and Tom and Jerry could do quite for well, not Lego Movie 1 big but Scooby will likely get a big push, I fully expect the first trailer to debut on the 50th anniversary.

[Mulder]

I've gotten the Shazam SDCC trailer constantly in theaters. I don't think Shazam has anything to worry about.

[YM!]

20 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I don't think WAG should expect every film to do Lego Movie 1 numbers, following what Sony did with using familiar IP and controlled budgets could work out well for them. Smallfoot was a modest hit for them and actually ended doing more than Storks. 

 

I think Scooby and Tom and Jerry could do quite for well, not Lego Movie 1 big but Scooby will likely get a big push, I fully expect the first trailer to debut on the 50th anniversary.

By TLM numbers I meant as $200M/$400M DOM/WW hits or to be frank, films over $150M DOM. If they marketed Smallfoot as a musical and arguably better, it would’ve easily done $100M DOM.

 

Both Scooby and to a lesser extent Tom and Jerry have to face a battle of overexposure from DTV movies, the former also has a lot of live action movies too.

Edited February 8, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[tupek]

27 minutes ago, RobrtmanAStarWarsReference said:

Pikachu will be fine, it's fucking Pokemon

Pikachu will be fine, $150m total guaranteed

[MrGlass2]

5 minutes ago, tupek said:

Pikachu will be fine, $150m total guaranteed

The first weekend?

[Jonwo]

6 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

By TLM numbers I meant as $200M/$400M DOM/WW hits or to be frank, films over $150M DOM. If they marketed Smallfoot as a musical and arguably better, it would’ve easily done $100M DOM.

 

Both Scooby and to a lesser extent Tom and Jerry have to face a battle of overexposure from DTV movies, the former also has a lot of live action movies too.

Scooby will stand out from the DTV and TV shows as it'll be CGI and Tom and Jerry being a hybrid also will stand out for the same reason. If SpongeBob 2 could be successful then the two WAG films will be fine. 

 

 

 

 

[Napoleon]

Another WB franchise failing. Soon the only franchise they'll have will be the one created by Zack Snyder. How ironic, after the living Hell the media made his family go through.

[a2k]

27 minutes ago, AdamKendall said:

Oh and in regards to the #s ... just too much Lego in too short of a time. 

Ninjago shouldn't have existed. I think WB will make Potter Lego next.

[TwoMisfits]

Another weekend, another set of middling to bad numbers in 2019...

 

I know, I know...we can't ever think about those brand new domestic subscription services around in 2018 that probably drove an insane 1st quarter:)...and those promos after promos after promos available from the online ticket services to compete with them...

 

And we can't mention that right now, we have a much lower overall subscriber base (across all services) with very few new subscribers (the ones who go crazy with subs) every month:)...

 

Because all of that would be crazy talk...it's gotta be just the movies that have changed:)...

 

PS - Although Lego 2 did last minute decide to run a $5 off 2 tickets deal this week on Atom...that's about the only thing I saw floating anywhere...whereas Alita at least has already advertised its $4 any showing deal for next Tuesday on TMobile:)...

Edited February 8, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

The first weekend?

Forgive me brother but I’m starting to doubt.

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

Another WB franchise failing. Soon the only franchise they'll have will be the one created by Zack Snyder. How ironic, after the living Hell the media made his family go through.

My man quite honestly, shut the fuck up.

[MrGlass2]

Just one more weekend when people are taking the very first Deadline estimate as fact.

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, a2k said:

Ninjago shouldn't have existed. I think WB will make Potter Lego next.

I think JK would veto that very quickly. 

 

 

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

Another WB franchise failing. Soon the only franchise they'll have will be the one created by Zack Snyder. How ironic, after the living Hell the media made his family go through.

There’s still MonsterVerse and Potter still has some life to it. Pokémon has the potential of the next big thing as well.

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

Another WB franchise failing. Soon the only franchise they'll have will be the one created by Zack Snyder. How ironic, after the living Hell the media made his family go through.

Also 

 

or

 

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

.it's gotta be just the movies that have changed:)

 

Well considering 2017/2016/2015/2014 start were all much bigger than 2019, not just 2018, yes movies being weaker do seem to be the way to go, I mean, the previous year had literally a star wars playing.

 

Look at this:

 

Year	Gross*	2019 % change	2018 % change	2017 % change	2016 % change	2015 % change	2014 % change
2019	$913.1	-	-16.5%	-16.6%	-21.8%	-21.8%	-10.6%
2018	$1,093.5	+19.8%	-	-0.1%	-6.4%	-6.4%	+7.1%
2017	$1,094.9	+19.9%	+0.1%	-	-6.2%	-6.2%	+7.2%
2016	$1,167.8	+27.9%	+6.8%	+6.7%	-	-0.0%	+14.3%
2015	$1,167.8	+27.9%	+6.8%	+6.7%	+0.0%	-	+14.3%
2014	$1,021.3	+11.9%	-6.6%	-6.7%	-12.5%	-12.5%	-

 

 

When did the subscription service boost happened and leaved ?

 

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

Well considering 2017/2016/2015/2014 start were all much bigger than 2019, not just 2018, yes movies being weaker do seem to be the way to go, I mean, the previous year had literally a star wars playing.

 

Look at this:

 

Year	Gross*	2019 % change	2018 % change	2017 % change	2016 % change	2015 % change	2014 % change
2019	$913.1	-	-16.5%	-16.6%	-21.8%	-21.8%	-10.6%
2018	$1,093.5	+19.8%	-	-0.1%	-6.4%	-6.4%	+7.1%
2017	$1,094.9	+19.9%	+0.1%	-	-6.2%	-6.2%	+7.2%
2016	$1,167.8	+27.9%	+6.8%	+6.7%	-	-0.0%	+14.3%
2015	$1,167.8	+27.9%	+6.8%	+6.7%	+0.0%	-	+14.3%
2014	$1,021.3	+11.9%	-6.6%	-6.7%	-12.5%	-12.5%	-

 

 

When did the subscription service boost happened and leaved ?

 

It's pretty much a late 2017 - late 2018 bump...it probably prevented the trend line continuing down...biggest effect would be through May 2018, when Moviepass started its implosion, although AMC mitigated it with its brand new subscription service for a few months...

Edited February 8, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Nova]

14 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

The first weekend?

$150M is the OD not OW my friend. I see expectations have already begun to drop for Pokémon. 

[DAJK]

14 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

Another WB franchise failing. Soon the only franchise they'll have will be the one created by Zack Snyder. How ironic, after the living Hell the media made his family go through.

Please don't bring up Snyder's family and their troubles right now, even if it's in the context of defending then against the 'horrible' media. They really have nothing to do with this weekend's box office whatsoever. We get it, you love MoS and BvS, I'm glad. I love one of them as well.