4-day Weekend Official| Alita $33.50M, Lego $27.75m, Isn't Romantic $16.64M, WMW $12.21m, HDD2U $11m

[a2k]

1 hour ago, RealLyre said:

how much do you think the weekend (5-day) should be for Alita to secure a 100M domestic finish?

 

 

 

would guess it needs 41-44m 5-day cause tough to do more than 2.3-2.4x the 5-day even with must-see wom.

[charlie Jatinder]

Alita Friday final will be $7.5mn Approx.

[charlie Jatinder]

Isn't it Romantic $4.1mn.

[charlie Jatinder]

Gully Boy $498k 

[a2k]

8 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Alita Friday final will be $7.5mn Approx.

7.5 would keep 40 5-day well alive

 

8.7

7.5

10.5 (+40%)

8.4 (-20%)

4.4 (-47.5%)

= 39.5

 

[Boxofficerules]

2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

 

I don’t think ratings put audiences off. The target audience for these films are in their teens. 

But those under 17 flock to see R rated horror films more than any other genre.

[The Futurist]

2 hours ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

No because the original Manga was set where Colorado used to be. So you know, not Japan or even sort of Japan. And also I don't recall them specifying that the character was Japanese. Another factor is that people are just less familiar with the source material. 

 

The Ghost in the Shell movie would have still gotten shit but less so if they wouldn't have leaned into the idea that Scarjo was playing an actual Japanese woman. It still would have gotten crap but they should have set it in America and changed the lead character's name. Stop trying to pretend that it was Japanese altogether. 

Divide and Conquer.

[Krissykins]

6 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

But those under 17 flock to see R rated horror films more than any other genre.

Yeh but PG13 horror usually has mostly girls and they’re mostly teens. 

 

No one cares about what rating a horror film is anymore. It was a thing in the horror community between 2005-2008 and then everyone got over it. There’s plenty of excellent ones. 

[sfran43]

 

[AN9815]

I liked Alita but it had several problems. Really happy that at least it's doing much better than the initial tracking, seems like Fox made a good choice by moving it away from Christmas season. 

 

Box office this year so far seems really low (and I don't think HTTYD3 will change that) but once Captain Marvel opens there is going to be a lot of interesting weekends until mid-August (Captain Marvel, Us, Dumbo, Shazam!, Avengers, Pikachu, Aladdin, John Wick, Godzilla, Toy Story 4, SLOP2...)

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

The Wandering Earth

Date	Gross in CNY ('000)	Gross in $	Daily Change	L/W Change	Gross To Date	Weekend	Weekly
Previews	¥13,154	$1,948,741			$1,948,741
05/02/2019	¥188,471	$27,921,630			$29,870,370
06/02/2019	¥258,318	$38,269,333	37.06%		$68,139,704
07/02/2019	¥339,810	$50,342,222	31.55%		$118,481,926		$118,481,926
08/02/2019	¥383,958	$56,882,667	12.99%		$175,364,593
09/02/2019	¥415,516	$61,649,258	8.38%		$237,013,851
10/02/2019	¥415,860	$61,700,297	0.08%		$298,714,147	$180,232,222
11/02/2019	¥338,104	$49,794,404	-19.30%	2455.21%	$348,508,551
12/02/2019	¥257,829	$38,084,047	-23.52%	36.40%	$386,592,598
13/02/2019	¥215,175	$31,830,621	-16.42%	-16.82%	$418,423,220
14/02/2019	¥351,250	$51,883,309	63.00%	3.06%	$470,306,528		$351,824,602
15/02/2019	¥180,059	$26,596,603	-48.74%	-53.24%	$496,903,131
16/02/2019	¥235,000	$34,711,965	30.54%	-43.69%	$531,615,096

 

Crossed $500mn in China.

 

 

 

[sfran43]

 

Edited February 16, 2019 by sfran43

[chuck0]

25 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

sounds healthy

Could we at least get a 2.5-3x on that for overall gross?

[Hatebox]

5 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

No idea if that's any good for such a small film but it's clearly a passion project for the rock so I guess it doesn't really matter.

[Avatree]

3 minutes ago, chuck0 said:

sounds healthy

Could we at least get a 2.5-3x on that for overall gross?

I don't know all that much about China bo, but I think when the market is very crowded, import films will be taken off screens after 1-2 weeks. So idk if that means 1.5x, 2x multi something like that.

Its Chinese new year, so I think American movies get very little chance of success.

 

Edited February 16, 2019 by Avatree

[POTUS 2020]

6 hours ago, Avatree said:

I don't know all that much about China bo, but I think when the market is very crowded, import films will be taken off screens after 1-2 weeks. So idk if that means 1.5x, 2x multi something like that.

Its Chinese new year, so I think American movies get very little chance of success.

 

AQM VNM ans BBB all did 2.5 to 3x OW with high audience scores.

The norm is 1.8-2x

CNY is winding down. Alita has 2 clear weeks then CM opens.

[a2k]

ALITA

 

90 Dom * 0.50 = 45

115 China * 0.25 = 28.75

230 OS-China * 0.40 = 92 // this could be optimistic but haven't followed current numbers

 

Gives 166 theatrical returns on 435 WW.

 

If a tent-pole recovers the prod budget globally or comes close then it can be expected to break-even and cover marketing and release costs using non-theatrical revenue. May not necessarily be the case here but at the very least, it's face-saving. When ALITA and MORTAL ENGINES were gonna release together folks were wondering which would bomb more. ALITA is at least looking to approach 400 WW if not 450-475+.

Edited February 16, 2019 by a2k
Guessing numbers a million times

[Avatree]

1 minute ago, POTUS 2020 said:

AQM VNM ans BBB all did 2.5 to 3x OW with high audience scores.

The norm is 1.8-2x

CNY is winding down. Alita has 2 clear weeks then CM opens.

Thank you

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, a2k said:

ALITA

 

90 Dom * 0.55 = 49.5

115 China * 0.25 = 28.75

240 OS-China * 0.40 = 96 // this could be optimistic but haven't followed current numbers

 

Gives 174.25 theatrical returns on 445 WW.

 

If a tent-pole recovers the prod budget globally then it can be expected to break-even and cover marketing and release costs using non-theatrical revenue. At the very least, it's face-saving. When ALITA and MORTAL ENGINES were gonna release together folks were wondering which would bomb more. ALITA is at least looking to approach 400 WW if not 450-475+.

Domestic consider 50% only. 3D gross has lower share a bit. China around 22%.

 

Apart from the budget there is release cost as well, that would be around $100-150mn.

Edited February 16, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[sfran43]