4-day Weekend Official| Alita $33.50M, Lego $27.75m, Isn't Romantic $16.64M, WMW $12.21m, HDD2U $11m

[lorddemaxus]

4 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

From a holiday weekend? 45% would be an amazing drop dude. 

Yeah, wouldn't a decent drop be more like 55%? I think if the WOM is as good as the A- cinemscore suggests, a 50% drop would be about right (unless HTTYD 3 opens in the high 40s).

 

[Elessar]

13 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

From a holiday weekend? 45% would be an amazing drop dude. 

I don't think so. Fri-Sun doesn't seem that much inflated, maybe Sun a little bit since many folks seem to have Monday off. On the other hand, Alita's OD was on Thu, so that deflates opening weekend. -45% might be good but nothing amazing.

Edited February 17, 2019 by Elessar

[IronJimbo]

6 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Saturday estimates (+/- 2%)

Alita: Battle Angel - $11mn 

LEGO 2 - $8.5mn

Isn't it Romantic - $5.5mn

 

Thanks again Charlie!

So looks like Alita won the weekend by quite some margin.

 

Looks to be ~$26.5m 3 day

 

so we could see >$40m 5 day, I want it to make $41m to beat

 

box office pro's TOTAL dom prediction https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-isnt-romantic-alita-battle-angel-happy-death-day-2u/

 

 

[terrestrial]

still error for me

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, terrestrial said:

still error for me

same

[lorddemaxus]

5 minutes ago, Elessar said:

I don't think so. Fri-Sun doesn't seem that much inflated, maybe Sun a little bit since many folks seem to have Monday off. On the other hand, Alita's OD was on Thu, so that deflates opening weekend. -45% might be solid but nothing amazing.

 

Not for an action blockbuster. The only action blockbuster I checked with a President' day weekend opening that has dropped 45% or less was Black Panther. The rest seem to be in the 50-55% range.

[IronJimbo]

19 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

From a holiday weekend? 45% would be an amazing drop dude. 

Well it's opening day wasn't a part of the weekend so that will help. I know it would be an incredible drop that's why I hope it will happen...

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

Not for an action blockbuster. The only action blockbuster I checked with a President' day weekend opening that has dropped 45% or less was Black Panther. The rest seem to be in the 50-55% range.

How many action blockbusters did you check that didn't open on a friday on president day weekend?

 

 

[lorddemaxus]

10 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

How many action blockbusters did you check that didn't open on a friday on president day weekend?

  

 

Like two. A Good Day to Die Hard (B+ cinemascore) and Jumper (B cinemascore). they are at 59% and 54% respectively so I think around 50% seems right considering that WOM is better for Alita than those two movies.

 

The inflation from Monday is larger than the deflation from Thursday.

Edited February 17, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[Brainbug]

The forum works for me normal now. Yesterday was a clusterfuck though lol.

 

Edit: Too early of a celebration. The subforums are still not working.

Edited February 17, 2019 by Brainbug

[terrestrial]

I just tried it again, still error

 

I found another work around

 

I'll go to the start side

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/

and use the search box, add the search only topics and get all movie titles I tried out

[a2k]

ALITA should at least do 38.5-39.5 at this point.

 

8.72

7.53

10.9 (+45%)

8.18 (-25%)

4.09 (-50%)

= 39.42

 

Close to 20% drop on Sun and/or mid-high 40s drop on Mon could nudge it past 40 5-day.

Even with positive reception few movies can do 2.5x the 5-day ow, so can't call 100 a lock.

[charlie Jatinder]

16 minutes ago, a2k said:

ALITA should at least do 38.5-39.5 at this point.

 

8.72

7.53

10.9 (+45%)

8.18 (-25%)

4.09 (-50%)

= 39.42

 

Close to 20% drop on Sun and/or mid-high 40s drop on Mon could nudge it past 40 5-day.

Even with positive reception few movies can do 2.5x the 5-day ow, so can't call 100 a lock.

IMO may be 8.7 7.5 11 8.6 5.2 : 41

 

 

Full run 95-100 approx.

 

Best case $42.5mn 5 days.

Edited February 17, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[salvador-232]

Don't you love that people still give a not cool to Lord even when he is saying something useful? 

 

 

 

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, salvador-232 said:

Don't you love that people still give a not cool to Lord even when he is saying something useful? 

 

 

 

I've never seen that happen!

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, salvador-232 said:

Don't you love that people still give a not cool to Lord even when he is saying something useful? 

 

 

 

 

Its like a running gag.

[a2k]

Is ALITA holding on to premium screens in it's 2nd weekend when HTTYD3 releases? That could make a significant difference in how it holds.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

Not for an action blockbuster. The only action blockbuster I checked with a President' day weekend opening that has dropped 45% or less was Black Panther. The rest seem to be in the 50-55% range.

What make that even special for Black Panther is that, it had a big Thursday Previews as well. The true FSS to FSS drop was barely 37.5% Approx.

 

Though I believe, Alita might manage that 45%, if you add $3.5-4mn to weekend, the real value of weekend if not for Thursday release. i.e. $15mn 2nd weekend from $27.5mn 1st weekend FSS, but in reality that's 52% down.

Edited February 17, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[Stewart]

So for me the International Thread now works and the China @ the box office sub topic works, it's just the normal "Box Office Discussion" sub-topic that's broken for now. 

 

I don't know whether that means they've fixed something or are in the process of doing so. Or perhaps it magically fixed itself  

[Stewart]

4 minutes ago, a2k said:

Is ALITA holding on to premium screens in it's 2nd weekend when HTTYD3 releases? That could make a significant difference in how it holds.

From what I can see on IMAX's website, it seems to be sharing IMAX with HTTYD3. Although many theatres haven't added their schedule yet it seems. Perhaps waiting to see how well Alita does