Weekend Thread | An Asgardian pops in on p.9 ~ HTTYD3 17m, A:BA 3.1m, IIR 2.2m

[TimmyRiggins]

3 minutes ago, boxofficeth said:

Then, hopefully, it could show some great leg next week staying above 9-10M given zero competition.

One can only hope

[marveldcfox]

1 hour ago, TimmyRiggins said:

We'll see the actuals and how Saturday jumps for Alita. I wonder if HTTYD3 blowing past expectations isn't causing Alita to drop harder than it should. Or Alita, despite seemingly strong WOM, has reached most of its potential audience. Come on Alita. 

This

[a2k]

15 minutes ago, TimmyRiggins said:

I honestly think they'll seriously consider a sequel if it does above 400 M WW which it should. If it was anyone else than Jim Cameron spearheading the film, perhaps not, but as others have said, and maybe that's delusional but I don't think it is, he can very well make a case for it and make it happen even if there's not necessarily a huge potential for growth.

 

Saturday could still jump big and the film ends up dropping less, but I don't know if even with great marketing, domestic could increase on a sequel? This is definitely one of those films that can gain a substantial following once it's out on VOD/BD/UHD/DVD, I hope and think it's worth pursuing.

 

Also, isn't Maoyan at 9.0? 

 

@chuck0 I think Alita or anime in general is too niche to ever score big domestically. And the mangas are absolutely bonkers and I'm surprised and pleased that the film retained some of that. I still think it's gonna recover on Saturday but maybe it simply did the most it could do domestically and no amount of good WOM can make up for it. Let's not forget that BO Pro had Alita at a 40 M something total, so this is still good,  but of course, with a big budget, expectations are high.

 

But it's a promising start regardless. 

Dom gives 50-55% theatrical returns and that is too weak compared to the prod budget. I don't think it would get a sequel even at 450 ww.

 

Sat jump was very good last week from true Friday and I expected it to be better this Sat.

Die Hard jumped 42% on 1st Sat and 67% on 2nd Sat (PD weekend 2013, Thu opening like Alita)

Alita jumped 55.5% on 1st Sat and could do 75-80% this time?

Going optimistic,

3.1

5.6 (+80%)

3.6 (-35%)

= 12.3 (-57%, comparable to Die Hard's -59% and with Captain Marvel around the corner)

~61 cume

 

9.0 on Maoyan is not amazing or break-out worthy. The scores on Maoyan are always high and even 8.6-8.7 can mean bad legs.

 

 

[TimmyRiggins]

We shall see, seems Cameron and Landau know it's all about the overseas play here. Pacific Rim pulled 101 M domestically and got its sequel which obviously turned out to be a bad call. 

[Hydrogen]

10 minutes ago, TimmyRiggins said:

We shall see, seems Cameron and Landau know it's all about the overseas play here. Pacific Rim pulled 101 M domestically and got its sequel which obviously turned out to be a bad call. 

The PR sequel sucked though I would prefer not a sequel than something that bad. 

[Brainbug]

100M could really make a difference for Alita (DOM). Not financially speaking, since it will probably still not make 1 Cent of a profit theatralically. But that number is just a symbolic treshold that indicates that there are millions of people who are willing to spend their money on a project like this.

 

Which means for the future, that it isnt illogical to invest in these types of films, just that the studios/filmmakers need to find ways to not let the budget explode. Its all relative after all: If Alita had a budget of 100M, its projected 400M Worldwide total would look really really good.

[charlie Jatinder]

I checked the International numbers of HTTYD 3. Is it only me or that's the case, the film has done bad in comparison with the second part. It will barely do half of it in UK. Similarly in Australia it will be 75% of 2nd one.

France is about 80% at same time in the run.

 

[salvador-232]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I checked the International numbers of HTTYD 3. Is it only me or that's the case, the film has done bad in comparison with the second part. It will barely do half of it in UK. Similarly in Australia it will be 75% of 2nd one.

France is about 80% at same time in the run.

 

E-X-C-H-A-N-G-E.    R-A-T-E-S  

 

 

In UK will have a ridiculous boost this week with the school holidays. I think the only place where it has done truly bad is South Korea 

[TimmyRiggins]

26 minutes ago, Box Office Theory Fan said:

The PR sequel sucked though I would prefer not a sequel than something that bad. 

 

The same team would return to the Alita sequel anyway, no fear

[Brainbug]

5 minutes ago, salvador-232 said:

E-X-C-H-A-N-G-E.    R-A-T-E-S 

 

What is that? Cant be important whatsoever, right? Since when do economic fluctuations apply to box office?

 

Next youll tell me that Avatar only managed to gross nearly 3 Billion because of all-time great exchange rates which can never be duplicated which will result in Avatar 2 having to drop a significant amount?

Edited February 23, 2019 by Brainbug

[TimmyRiggins]

8 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

100M could really make a difference for Alita (DOM). Not financially speaking, since it will probably still not make 1 Cent of a profit theatralically. But that number is just a symbolic treshold that indicates that there are millions of people who are willing to spend their money on a project like this.

 

Which means for the future, that it isnt illogical to invest in these types of films, just that the studios/filmmakers need to find ways to not let the budget explode. Its all relative after all: If Alita had a budget of 100M, its projected 400M Worldwide total would look really really good.

Agreed but then again, you can't realistically make a film like Alita: Battle Angel on anything less than it was made for imo. Cameron jokingly said it would have cost twice as much if he'd done it and I don't doubt it would have been more expensive. Robert being such an expert at doing a lot with not much money made this probably as cheap as it could possibly get. And he also said that the film is also not longer than it is because he's making the film at a budget, with a studio, and obviously, every shot with Alita is expensive.

 

Fact is, really, the films that cost a lot usually do for a very good reason, I'm currently being reminded of that and I'm just making a 30 min short and yet the budget is surprisingly high even for a drama, no spectacle, film. It's outrageous

[Premium George]

3 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

What is that? Cant be important whatsoever, right? Since when do economic fluctuations apply to box office?

 

Next youll tell me that Avatar only managed to gross nearly 3 Billion because of all-time great exchange rates which can never be duplicated which will result in Avatar 2 having to drop a significant amount?

That doesn't make sense. ER is not that bad that $6 billion becomes less than $2.8 b. Baka!

[a2k]

17 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

100M could really make a difference for Alita (DOM). Not financially speaking, since it will probably still not make 1 Cent of a profit theatralically. But that number is just a symbolic treshold that indicates that there are millions of people who are willing to spend their money on a project like this.

 

Which means for the future, that it isnt illogical to invest in these types of films, just that the studios/filmmakers need to find ways to not let the budget explode. Its all relative after all: If Alita had a budget of 100M, its projected 400M Worldwide total would look really really good.

ALITA needed ~13.5 weekend to keep 100 alive. Felt ~15 weekend (-47%) was possible as it was a Thu opener burnt off demand before FSS and wom seemed very good. It be 29 away from 90 dom even if weekend is 12.4 (1m above Deadline's current 11.4 projection) which itself seems like some ask considering CAPMAR is around the corner.

 

Edit:

 

ALITA's cume after 2 weekends will be similar to BR2049 with a much smaller weekend.

 

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Week
2017/10/06	1	$32,753,122		4,058	$8,071	$32,753,122	1
2017/10/13	2	$15,492,244	-53%	4,058	$3,818	$60,970,631	2
2017/10/20	4	$7,353,151	-53%	3,203	$2,296	$74,203,354	3
2017/10/27	5	$4,117,395	-44%	2,421	$1,701	$81,538,180	4
2017/11/03	7	$2,321,372	-44%	1,464	$1,586	$85,542,502	5
2017/11/10	8	$1,460,463	-37%	863	$1,692	$88,051,760	6
2017/11/17	11	$626,039	-57%	466	$1,343	$89,276,502	7
2017/11/24	13	$541,078	-14%	434	$1,247	$90,201,869	8
2017/12/01	15	$401,403	-26%	515	$779	$90,785,165	9
2017/12/08	18	$264,527	-34%	388	$682	$91,252,390	10
2017/12/15	26	$74,827	-72%	121	$618	$91,460,081	11
2017/12/22	30	$31,682	-58%	75	$422	$91,556,239	12
2017/12/29	36	$46,838	+48%	75	$625	$91,654,512	13
2018/01/05	31	$100,018	+114%	133	$752	$91,800,042	14
2018/01/12	35	$70,014	-30%	125	$560	$91,917,746	15
2018/01/19	37	$49,170	-30%	124	$397	$92,001,208	16
2018/01/26	43	$24,132	-51%	72	$335	$92,044,134	17

Edited February 23, 2019 by a2k

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Premium George said:

That doesn't make sense. ER is not that bad that $6 billion becomes less than $2.8 b. Baka!

 

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, salvador-232 said:

E-X-C-H-A-N-G-E.    R-A-T-E-S  

 

 

In UK will have a ridiculous boost this week with the school holidays. I think the only place where it has done truly bad is South Korea 

Hopefully but, its not better in local currency either in Australia, UAE.

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

What is that? Cant be important whatsoever, right? Since when do economic fluctuations apply to box office?

 

Next youll tell me that Avatar only managed to gross nearly 3 Billion because of all-time great exchange rates which can never be duplicated which will result in Avatar 2 having to drop a significant amount?

Avatar in $ did $25mn (₹110cr) Approx in India.

 

Today that is worth $15mn Approx.

 

However it won't be that bad everywhere else. More like $2.8b is par $2.45-2.5bn today.

Edited February 23, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[Premium George]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Avatar in $ did $25mn (₹110cr) Approx in India.

 

Today that is worth $15mn Approx.

Well good thing it will beat bahubali 2.

[salvador-232]

13 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

What is that? Cant be important whatsoever, right? Since when do economic fluctuations apply to box office?

 

Next youll tell me that Avatar only managed to gross nearly 3 Billion because of all-time great exchange rates which can never be duplicated which will result in Avatar 2 having to drop a significant amount?

Well, Avatar will have the tremendous growth of China and South East Asia, will that be enough? IDK

[a2k]

16 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I checked the International numbers of HTTYD 3. Is it only me or that's the case, the film has done bad in comparison with the second part. It will barely do half of it in UK. Similarly in Australia it will be 75% of 2nd one.

France is about 80% at same time in the run.

 

KFP3 OS reduced a lot from KFP2. OS-China was shockingly low.

 

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Worldwide	Domestic / %		Overseas / %		Year
1	Kung Fu Panda 2	P/DW	$665.7	$165.2	24.8%	$500.4 (96 Ch + 404)	75.2%	2011
2	Kung Fu Panda	P/DW	$631.7	$215.4	34.1%	$416.3 (26 Ch + 390)	65.9%	2008
3	Kung Fu Panda 3	Fox	$521.2	$143.5	27.5%	$377.6 (154 Ch + 224)	72.5%	2016

 

 

In case of HTTYD probably 3D-mania lasted longer overseas compared to Dom and helped HTTYD2?

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, Premium George said:

Well good thing it will beat bahubali 2.

Not even close. The original did 40% of 3 Idiots, sequel will be lucky to do 20% of Baahubali 2.

 

Will stay below End Game most likely. The Jungle Book will be the target.