Weekend Thread | An Asgardian pops in on p.9 ~ HTTYD3 17m, A:BA 3.1m, IIR 2.2m

[JB33]

That's a disappointing number for Alita. It did solid business on opening weekend but it looks like, yet again, and not surprisingly, North American audiences are quickly tuning out a manga adaptation.

[charlie Jatinder]

17 minutes ago, dakus said:

That's ugly for FFMF then, since it was being estimated for 2.6M just this morning.

Do FFMF had any Previews. I didn't add that to its number. If there are add them.

[dakus]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Do FFMF had any Previews. I didn't add that to its number. If there are add them.

Ah that makes sense then. The previews were 450k so it would come out to 2.65M, just slightly over estimates.

[Eric Duncan]

5 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Do FFMF had any Previews. I didn't add that to its number. If there are add them.

It did $450K in previews

[Zakiyyah6]

Alita has to do the best it can before Captain Marvel hits. It needs a good drop this weekend and the one after that. If it really only does like 11.5mil then chances of 100mil are dead. 

[charlie Jatinder]

I still can't believe it will do $11.5mn. On Wednesday, I was thinking that $14mn will be absolute floor for it.

[Godzilla]

9 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I still can't believe it will do $11.5mn. On Wednesday, I was thinking that $14mn will be absolute floor for it.

Can evening shows save it?

[LexJoker]

3 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

LEGO 2 looks like $1.65-1.7mn Friday. That to be honest seems very low, but even using the most leniant comp I have for numbers, it don't go above $1.85mn. which again is low.

 

Assuming it has bigger Saturday bump, I see it going 1.7 3.8 2.8 : 8.3mn.

 

 

 

 

3 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Alita looks like $2.5mn using the most leniant comp I have. Again like LEGO 2 it's just way too low.

All I can see it doing is $9.5mn weekend from this point of time.

 

That's simply unbelievable but what to do? That's what numbers are showing. 

 

Could be some problem with numbers and may be that's why Deadline didn't shared the Friday for these 2. Most likely it will be sorted by evening (I mean your morning).

Toothless frying everything that gets in its way.

 

[Ozymandias]

2 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Alita: Battle Angel: $2.85mn

lol

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

maybe they make a Disney + series of Alita

If Cameron produces it and maybe directs a pilot - yes and far more likely than Disney giving $170-200m for a sequel. 

 

Even Pacific Rim 2 had a lower budget and needed to be a co production with China and it took 5 years.  Disney doesn't do co productions any more.

[TalismanRing]

2 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Friday Estimates (+/- 3%)

 

HTTYD 3: $16.5mn

Alita: Battle Angel: $2.85mn

Fighting With My Family: $2.6mn

LEGO Movie 2: $2.05mn

Isn't it Romantic: $1.95mn

What Men Want: $1.35mn

Some pretty poor Friday jumps.  Alita from that is 78% - even under Ghost In The Shell's 84%

[lorddemaxus]

8 hours ago, Godzilla said:

Ouch 59% drop for Alita. 

Terrible weekend for the holdovers. Lego Movie 2's 55% drop doesn't look any better.

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Terrible weekend for the holdovers. Lego Movie 2's 55% drop doesn't look any better.

LEGO facing direct competition and a Sunday inflated holiday w/e was expected to do sub 50%

 

Alita opened on a Thur and two others on a Wed so previews weren't in play in o/w numbers so I expected a bit better in drops from last w/e openers.

Edited February 23, 2019 by TalismanRing

[picores]

If Dragon's can make at least 55m this weekend, which looks very likely, cant see it going under 200m DOM. With strong OS returns (bigger than Dragon's 2) plus lower budget and even better critical response....this is a big, big winner.

[Barnack]

11 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Even Pacific Rim 2 had a lower budget and needed to be a co production with China and it took 5 years.  Disney doesn't do co productions any more.

Also feel they are not too likely currently to be interested in low-risk, low-reward affair, but they still do some co-distribution too right ? Glass for example.

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

55 or higher for Dragon will happen if Saturday jump is big. 2nd one has an okayish jump on true Friday so we don't know it yet. It could turn out to be the high 40s by tomorrow this time around.

[filmlover]

Keep in mind last weekend was a 4-day frame, everyone.

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Also feel they are not too likely currently to be interested in low-risk, low-reward affair, but they still do some co-distribution too right ? Glass for example.

 

 

Yes though that's because they distributed Unbreakable so there were pre existing rights issues.

[narniadis]

The post holiday weekend meltdowns are starting.

After the Wednesday number for Alita, I never could understand the overly optimistic expectations for weekend 2. No matter how much you jump, if you are starting from a low point, your ceiling is small.

 

I am seeing the doldrums continue all the way to Avengers. Captain Marvel is going to do well, but not blow the doors out (125m is my current expectation.) The economy is not nearly as strong as some are trying to say and it's showing in consumer spending. Biggest difference now than in previous pre-recession eras is the theatrical release window has gotten dramatically short AND the cost of tickets is just too high post the moviepass debacle.

[Premium George]

6 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

55 or higher for Dragon will happen if Saturday jump is big. 2nd one has an okayish jump on true Friday so we don't know it yet. It could turn out to be the high 40s by tomorrow this time around.

Since you have started doing this, has there been any time when your numbers were far away from actual numbers? At the same time of course.