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Weekend Thread | An Asgardian pops in on p.9 ~ HTTYD3 17m, A:BA 3.1m, IIR 2.2m

By sfran43, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Rthmessiah,

Quick stop by HTTYD3 17, A 3.1, IIR 2.2
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Posted by Rthmessiah,

Sat HTTYD3 22.5, Alita 5.6, L2 4.9, FWMF/ITR 3.3, WMW 2.4
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narniadis Blockbuster

narniadis

Posted
Posted

Interestingly enough, 2019 is reminding me very much of 2014 (the last time we also surprise has a Lego Movie and Dragon Sequel) minus the big hit that was The Lego Movie, 2014 at the beginning was bouyed some by the 2013 oscar contenders, but the year overall was quite depressed (last time we didn't have a 400m grosser either.)

 

Obviously, I don't think that will be the case this year, but these things are cyclical as well and with so much unappealing product and a severe lack of product being spread around evenly (the bunching around holiday times this year is just crazy) I don't see the overall yearly box office doing well.

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Mulder Global Phenomenon

Mulder

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4 minutes ago, narniadis said:

The post holiday weekend meltdowns are starting.

After the Wednesday number for Alita, I never could understand the overly optimistic expectations for weekend 2. No matter how much you jump, if you are starting from a low point, your ceiling is small.

 

I am seeing the doldrums continue all the way to Avengers. Captain Marvel is going to do well, but not blow the doors out (125m is my current expectation.) The economy is not nearly as strong as some are trying to say and it's showing in consumer spending. Biggest difference now than in previous pre-recession eras is the theatrical release window has gotten dramatically short AND the cost of tickets is just too high post the moviepass debacle.

I don't think there's a reason to be pessimistic tbh. Nothing in these first two months was exceptionally GA friendly/got good WoM and even then we've had minor break-outs/surprises like The Upside and now HTTYD3.

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

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5 minutes ago, Premium George said:

Since you have started doing this, has there been any time when your numbers were far away from actual numbers? At the same time of course.

Glass weekend Saturday and Sunday were bit off. Rest naah. Its been good so far. +/- 3-4% the number I estimate in the morning.

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LegendaryBen Sleeper Hit

LegendaryBen

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18 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

55 or higher for Dragon will happen if Saturday jump is big. 2nd one has an okayish jump on true Friday so we don't know it yet. It could turn out to be the high 40s by tomorrow this time around.

The 2nd one had a subdued increase Due to it being a summer release. February should provide a higher increase.

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JB33 Blockbuster

JB33

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1 minute ago, narniadis said:

Interestingly enough, 2019 is reminding me very much of 2014 (the last time we also surprise has a Lego Movie and Dragon Sequel) minus the big hit that was The Lego Movie, 2014 at the beginning was bouyed some by the 2013 oscar contenders, but the year overall was quite depressed (last time we didn't have a 400m grosser either.)

 

Obviously, I don't think that will be the case this year, but these things are cyclical as well and with so much unappealing product and a severe lack of product being spread around evenly (the bunching around holiday times this year is just crazy) I don't see the overall yearly box office doing well.

Agreed 100% on that point. I've noticed it too. Studios can't help themselves cramming their tentpoles in with other tentpoles to get a piece of the Summer or Christmas holiday pie. We got a taste of it when it became apparent Disney wasn't moving Solo back to December 2018 and other studios absolutely dogpiled on that month.

 

Aquaman obviously still turned out great, and Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse legged its way to a solid gross, but they were pretty much TLJ and Jumanji-lite. That is to say, there can really only be 2 big winners. Other movies can do fine business, like Bumblebee, or a smaller one like The Mule, but there's no room for any other movies to explode.

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lorddemaxus Global Phenomenon

lorddemaxus

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, narniadis said:

The post holiday weekend meltdowns are starting.

After the Wednesday number for Alita, I never could understand the overly optimistic expectations for weekend 2. No matter how much you jump, if you are starting from a low point, your ceiling is small.

I mean, the people with the really optimistic predictions (like a 20 mil second weekend lol) are the Cameron fanboys who expected the movie to make a billion WW. Hell, they were even expecting a 140 mil DOM total after last weekend. They think Alita is the best movie of the decade and everyone agrees (which is a weird hill to die on considering the movie isn't even a James Cameron film). But to be honest, even I was optimistic. I expected around 13.6-14.6 mil second weekend. Didn't expect a drop anywhere near as bad as this.

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JB33 Blockbuster

JB33

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1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

I mean, the people with the really optimistic predictions (like a 20 mil second weekend lol) are the Cameron fanboys who expected the movie to make a billion WW. Hell, they were even expecting a 140 mil DOM total after last weekend. They think Alita is the best movie of the decade and everyone agrees (which is a weird hill to die on considering the movie isn't even a James Cameron film). But to be honest, even I was optimistic. I expected around 13.6-14.6 mil second weekend. Didn't expect a drop anywhere near as bad as this.

Predictably, the Cameron brigade has been quiet (although I think it's the middle of the night where they all live so we'll see what they have to say in the morning).

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