Weekend Thread: weekend #s (Actuals) Dumbo $45.99M, Us $33.23M, CM $20.66M

[terrestrial]

2 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Honesly if you aren't attatched to any party it's pretty funny to see everybody go nuts about small things.

So plz don't make another LOTR movie or I might be involved in the next fanwar. 

[Ledmonkey96]

Somewhat unrelated, any idea how long it will take for Fox releases to be counted towards the Buena Vista box office total? Or is Disney keeping Fox distribution alive?

[CJohn]

Shazam won't even open with 40M. There is no hype.

[pepsa]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

Shazam won't even open with 40M. There is no hype.

At this point I think everyone is just meming this. Every movie gets the 'x' won't even do 'y' because no hype.

IW didn't need any hype to get 257m I am sure Shazam will get 50m or more with no hype  

 

[pepsa]

12 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Why do we still have no 'like' with a emote being super happy/excited, that would be great to have.

[filmlover]

I have Shazam pegged at $60M. Buzz definitely feels a lot quieter than when Wonder Woman and Aquaman (which obviously would've opened much higher at any other time of the year than right before Christmas) but should still pull solid numbers.

 

Pet Sematary will land in the mid-$20M area while The Best of Enemies will be DOA.

[Nero]

..

Edited March 30, 2019 by Nero

[MrGlass2]

There is hype for Shazam, but not much presales (yet?).

It will be one of the relatively interesting box office runs to follow before the Big One, in six weeks.

[Ledmonkey96]

22 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

There is hype for Shazam, but not much presales (yet?).

It will be one of the relatively interesting box office runs to follow before the Big One, in six weeks.

Speaking of pre-sales how big of a bump can we expect for CM next week when Endgame presales start up.

[YLF]

2 hours ago, ScoobyDoo21 said:

Oh you got to me kidding me. Pure Flix's audience of Persecution complexs showed up.

A lot of republican politicians and christian leaders posted about it all over social media on how important the film is lmaoooo so I’m sure that helped 

Edited March 30, 2019 by YLF

[cdsacken]

Cm will be depressed by Shazam next week offsetting gains. I will predict next week everyday on Sunday.

Over 10 million next weekend. 10.5-13 depending on how it finishes this week and how well Shazam does. Remember Pet Sematary comes out too and it will do decent as well.

 

Following 3 weeks though, I expect low weekend drops 30% or less probably almost flat week End Game opens 

 

Imo of course

Edited March 30, 2019 by cdsacken

[Jerry]

On 3/29/2019 at 2:17 PM, dudalb said:

50 Million for a 170 Million dollar film is not all that great.

I see people still like to proclaim a film is doing "really good" without looking at the cost.

50 million opening would mean a $120M+ domestic total. That's "ok" but projections are showing that a WW total for the weekend will be in the midrange 100's. So it will likely make its budget back within 5-6 days of being out which is pretty ok. I think it should lie in the $300-400M range at the end of it's run worldwide

 

$200-299M range = bomb

$300-349M range = flop

$350-399M range = fair

$400-549M range = mild hit

$550M+ = big hit

[Jerry]

7 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Cm will be depressed by Shazam next week offsetting gains. I will predict next week everyday on Sunday.

Over 10 million next weekend. 10.5-13 depending on how it finishes this week and how well Shazam does. Remember Pet Sematary comes out too and it will do decent as well.

 

Following 3 weeks though, I expect low weekend drops 30% or less probably almost flat week End Game opens 

 

Imo of course

I see a $50M+ weekend for Shazam (if not 60M+) I won't be seeing the movie as I'm really not the biggest fan of comic book movies in general but I think CM will take a large drop in its opening weekend but I also see it then having fantastic hold throughout the Endgame release. I know myself and many others still are making plans to see CM (I'm a new Marvel fan and currently watching all of the movies to catch up.) I think that new fan fare will help the movie just squeeze past $400M domestic mark. 

[pepsa]

2 minutes ago, Jerry said:

 

$200-299M range = bomb

$300-349M range = flop

$350-450M range = fair

$450-600M range = mild hit

 

This seems a bit fairer.  I don't think 600m with that budget would ever be a big hit.

Because AntMan2 had a smaller budget and did $650m ww and now way I call that a 'big hit'.

[The Futurist]

4 hours ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

I think Disney made a mistake by grouping Dumbo, Aladdin, and Lion King within essentially a four month span. Too many animated-remakes to keep in mind at once. Dumbo feels offered up as an appetizer, with a side-salad and main entree still to come.

I ve been saying this with  others for months.

Their 2019 shedule was always stupid to begin with.

Complete oversaturation.

[cdsacken]

Good idea to see CM she is going to play a major role in the film. I'm seeing it again on 4/22 for a refresher prior to End Game on opening weekend. 

[cdsacken]

Definitely dumb to do that many live action remakes.

[ThomasNicole]

27 minutes ago, Jerry said:

50 million opening would mean a $120M+ domestic total. That's "ok" but projections are showing that a WW total for the weekend will be in the midrange 100's. So it will likely make its budget back within 5-6 days of being out which is pretty ok. I think it should lie in the $300-400M range at the end of it's run worldwide

 

$200-299M range = bomb

$300-349M range = flop

$350-399M range = fair

$400-549M range = mild hit

$550M+ = big hit

Some multipliers of others disney live actions:

A Wrinkle In Time 3.03x

Alice In Wonderland 2.87x

Maleficent 3.47x

Oz The Great And Powerful 2.96x

 

Cinemascore:

Maleficent A

Dumbo A-

Alice In Wonderland A-

Oz The Great And Powerful B+

A Wrinkle In Time B

 

My point is: Dumbo has a good shot at $ 150M DOM with a $ 49 - 51M debut. Worldwide i'll wait more data, but from what i see it could finish in the $ 400M range or at least something close to that, which is decent enough, the only problem with this movie is really the budget, if it was $ 110 - 130M like MPR / AWIT / Nutcracker this could be profitable, not just ok.

Edited March 30, 2019 by ThomasNicole

[terrestrial]

43 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Speaking of pre-sales how big of a bump can we expect for CM next week when Endgame presales start up.

Not sure, if not adding material with her included gets added also, probably not really.

I think there is a higher chance for a bit later on, very shortly before, but also after Endgame's release
 

 

[ACSlater]

17 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Definitely dumb to do that many live action remakes.

 

Wrong choice to do Dumbo. No one gave a shit about that movie or now.

 

Bring on Lion King.