Weekend Thread: weekend #s (Actuals) Dumbo $45.99M, Us $33.23M, CM $20.66M

[The Panda]

5 hours ago, That One Guy said:

Almost saw Dumbo last night, but swapped my ticket last minute to see Captain Marvel again with my friends.  I have a gut feeling I made the better decision.

The money is going to the same mouse, sadly

[pepsa]

14 hours ago, The Panda said:

The money is going to the same mouse, sadly

The money from I2 also went to the same mouse house  

Edited March 31, 2019 by pepsa

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, Jerry said:

50 million opening would mean a $120M+ domestic total. That's "ok" but projections are showing that a WW total for the weekend will be in the midrange 100's. So it will likely make its budget back within 5-6 days of being out which is pretty ok. I think it should lie in the $300-400M range at the end of it's run worldwide

 

$200-299M range = bomb

$300-349M range = flop

$350-399M range = fair

$400-549M range = mild hit

$550M+ = big hit

 

I would had a bit of market granularity here, a 165m/135m dbo/intl story could play quite differently than a 85/225, I imagine it is already heavily implied that Dumbo will be quite domestic heavy if it make under 325.

 

I am not sure where the real budget will end up between those 150-170m type of estimate, but I would hesitate ever calling a movie that make somewhat close to it's budget domestic a bomb and would not for a movie that get close and never for a movie reaching it.

 

1 hour ago, pepsa said:

This seems a bit fairer.  I don't think 600m with that budget would ever be a big hit.

Because AntMan2 had a smaller budget and did $650m ww and now way I call that a 'big hit'.

Would have been for a non sequel of an other studio too, imagine if Tarzan or Valerian made that kind of money, Marvel do bend perception a little bit.

 

A classic like Dumbo being a movie that is received well enough to make 600m could have a lot of value for Disney and is historicaly hability to moneytise that kind of stuff.

 

Take it this way, look at Deepwater Horizon or Adam Sandler Pixels, those movies were not particularly that much cheaper (about 50m less) and the studio didn't thought they had that good of a change at reaching 300m WW. 650m if it is heavy domestic is still a lot (just 10 year's ago that would have made you the third biggest movie of the year in the world)

 

Pixels for example at a 120m budget, was expecting to make 92m in profits (32m to Sandlers and co., 50m the studio, 10m the co-investors)  with a 179m dbo / 189m intl type of performance and that movie was not promoting any toys / previous movie in the vault / Park attractions.

Edited March 30, 2019 by Barnack

[MagnarTheGreat]

 

It's harder than folks think for Disney to break out and get more of their slate to into the Top 10 domestic. Captain Marvel is obviously going to grab one of these slots. The other 9 are still open. They're averaging 4.2 Top 10 slots per year in the past 6 years. Captain Marvel looks to finish around the median of #3 or peak of #4 or #5 on this chart across the past 5 years.

 

There's only so much money people are gonna spend on the live-action remakes and spamming them may be leading to a certain amount of cannibalization, and they're not a connected cinematic universe. The typical movie-goer accounted for 5 tickets last year and 4.7 tickets in the prior year according to the 2018 MPAA report.

Edited March 30, 2019 by MagnarTheGreat

[lilmac]

Burton strikes again. *sigh*

[Ledmonkey96]

Disney should be good for at least 5 top 10 finishes this year, CM, Endgame, LK, Frozen 2 and SW9

[Jerry]

1 hour ago, pepsa said:

This seems a bit fairer.  I don't think 600m with that budget would ever be a big hit.

Because AntMan2 had a smaller budget and did $650m ww and now way I call that a 'big hit'.

Apples to oranges. Dumbo is an ancient movie that isn't that memorable that got a mixed review (not expected to do over 600m.) Antman & The Wasp is part of a universe that consistently does 1B+ ww. So overall that movie should be expected to do better but they don't. 

[MagnarTheGreat]

7 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Disney should be good for at least 5 top 10 finishes this year, CM, Endgame, LK, Frozen 2 and SW9

2 Marvel Studios: Captain Marvel & Avengers: Endgame

1 Pixar: Toy Story 4

1 Disney Animation Studios: Frozen 2

1 Lucasfilm: Star Wars Episode IX

5 Other: Dumbo, Aladdin, The Lion King, Artemis Fowl, Malificent 2, etc.

...and the tricky part for this year is that FOX is now Disney too going forward.

 

Or 6, provided that Toy Story 4 doesn't fall off a cliff despite 9 years of ticket price hikes since the last one.

[MovieGuyKyle17]

Dumbo isn't flying high

[IronJimbo]

36 minutes ago, MovieGuyKyle17 said:

Dumbo isn't flying high

Dumbo's not really taking off

[PenguinHyphy]

3 hours ago, filmlover said:

I have Shazam pegged at $60M. Buzz definitely feels a lot quieter than when Wonder Woman and Aquaman (which obviously would've opened much higher at any other time of the year than right before Christmas) but should still pull solid numbers.

 

Pet Sematary will land in the mid-$20M area while The Best of Enemies will be DOA.

The Evil Dead remake opened to $25,000,000 on the same weekend, which makes that really appear to be the perfect comparison for it. 

[WhiteWings]

9 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Dumbo's not really taking off

Dumbo's ears are burning...

[cookie]

1 hour ago, MagnarTheGreat said:

 

It's harder than folks think for Disney to break out and get more of their slate to into the Top 10 domestic. Captain Marvel is obviously going to grab one of these slots. The other 9 are still open. They're averaging 4.2 Top 10 slots per year in the past 6 years. Captain Marvel looks to finish around the median of #3 or peak of #4 or #5 on this chart across the past 5 years.

 

There's only so much money people are gonna spend on the live-action remakes and spamming them may be leading to a certain amount of cannibalization, and they're not a connected cinematic universe. The typical movie-goer accounted for 5 tickets last year and 4.7 tickets in the prior year according to the 2018 MPAA report.

I mean getting 4 out of 10 in the top 10 is still pretty massive for one studio especially when they've held 15 out of the 25 films that were in the top five between those same years.

 

And now that they have Fox which has squeezed in at least one top 10 grosser every year with the exception of 2017 their competition is lessening.

[DAR]

1 hour ago, MovieGuyKyle17 said:

Dumbo isn't flying high

 

13 minutes ago, WhiteWings said:

Dumbo's ears are burning...

Those are pretty Dumbo 

[Brainbug]

[chuck0]

Man, picking on poor dumbo...

while i am no fan of the remakes, that one at least had some kind of merit since the original cannot be shown anymore due to its PC issues.

[Blankments]

Dumbo's cute. loved the Elfman score and Burton's direction but that script needed some work. but hey, the elephant is ADORABLE

[Dementeleus]

2 minutes ago, Blankments said:

Dumbo's cute. loved the Elfman score and Burton's direction but that script needed some work. but hey, the elephant is ADORABLE

 

Are you saying it’s pachyDUMB?

[DAR]

24 minutes ago, chuck0 said:

Man, picking on poor dumbo...

while i am no fan of the remakes, that one at least had some kind of merit since the original cannot be shown anymore due to its PC issues.

I’ve seen it pop up early morning on Freeform or a Disney channel 

[chuck0]

6 minutes ago, DAR said:

I’ve seen it pop up early morning on Freeform or a Disney channel 

In its original form? Interesting, i always assumed that they wont show it anymore in the US (the drunken underage main character being the least pressing issue  )