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sfran43

The Calm Before The Storm Weekend Thread: Estimates - Curse Of LaLlorona $26.51M | Shazam $17.34M | Breakthrough 11.0M | CM $9.10M

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That seems really good for Llorona. I'll do some "if it follows" stuff later, but I'm pretty sure that locks 20M this weekend.

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Only wondering, to those americans here, do you guys get any holidays for Good Friday? Could that be slightly boosting previews?

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Also runtimes w/out credits (even though everyone will stay until the credits for this) and attachments for next week:

 

Avengers: Endgame: 2:48. 2D showings have Lion King and Rise of Skywalker attached. 3D has Toy Story 4 and Aladdin.

 

This is just like when TFA debuted. 2D had Civil War and Zootopia, 3D had The Finest Hours and The Jungle Book

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2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Also runtimes w/out credits (even though everyone will stay until the credits for this) and attachments for next week:

 

Avengers: Endgame: 2:48. 2D showings have Lion King and Rise of Skywalker attached. 3D has Toy Story 4 and Aladdin.

 

This is just like when TFA debuted. 2D had Civil War and Zootopia, 3D had The Finest Hours and The Jungle Book

I guess those choices make sense. Somewhat expected Frozen 2 though. Maybe just wishful thinking on my part because I really wanna see that teaser in theatre. 

 

Do you know if IMAX attachments are any different?

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I imagine Warner Bros will be pleased to have both the number 1 and 2 films for this week.

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https://deadline.com/2019/04/the-curse-of-la-llorona-shazam-easter-weekend-box-office-2-1202598869/

 

That figure is slightly higher than the $2.3M that  Paramount’s Pet Sematary posted in previews two weeks ago, as well as Escape Room‘s $2.3M Thursday night and the Wan produced Lights Out ($1.8M).

 

Tracking has Llorona opening between $15M-$17M, making a run at Shazam!‘s No. 1 two weekend streak. It wouldn’t come as a surprise if La Llorona hits $20M given Wan’s name on the one-sheet and the fact that it’s Good Friday, a huge moviegoing day with 74% K-12 schools off and another 29% from colleges. Among Wan’s producer credits, he has only had one movie open to below $20M and that was Saw VI ($14.1M). In regards to Llorona‘s Thursday night comps, both Pet Sematary and Lights Out, made north of $20M respectively with $24.5M and $21.6M. Also Monday boasts 37% K-12 off and 8% colleges on break, so there should be an extra B.O. cushion on Easter Sunday.

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Escape Room previews started at 4pm. Llorona started at 6pm. This number is amazing!

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That's way better than I expected. A shame that it didn't reunite far better conditions to perform on, because it could've been a real breakout if they were there.

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Okay, so...

 

If it follows Pet Sematary

2.75

11.9

10.8

6.6

29.3M weekend

 

If it follows Glass

2.75

11.8

10.8

7.4

30M weekend

 

If it follows Escape Room

2.75

8.9

7.7

4.7

21.3M weekend

 

Glass opened on a holiday weekend, so this feels like the most apt comparison, and would be great for this movie. O/U Lights Out for the total probably.

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2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

That's way better than I expected. A shame that it didn't reunite far better conditions to perform on, because it could've been a real breakout if they were there.

 

Exactly, it makes me so fucking angry. If it's doing these kind of numbers with awful reviews, how much it would make with a good reception? We could've been talking about a potential $100m grosser here that got wasted, urgh.

 

Well, at least it reinforces the strength of the TCU brand.

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3 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Okay, so...

 

If it follows Pet Sematary

2.75

11.9

10.8

6.6

29.3M weekend

 

If it follows Glass

2.75

11.8

10.8

7.4

30M weekend

 

If it follows Escape Room

2.75

8.9

7.7

4.7

21.3M weekend

 

Glass opened on a holiday weekend, so this feels like the most apt comparison, and would be great for this movie. O/U Lights Out for the total probably.

Also ER had 4pm previews which probably skewed badly. 

 

Couple more comps:

 

The Nun:

2.75

11.3

10.1

6.1

27.3M weekend

 

A Quiet Place:

2.75

12.1

12.2

7.8

32.1M weekend

 

AQP was quite walkup friendly iirc, so that's probably a bit too high. Nun on the other hand Nun is directly part of TCU so maybe it should be more than that? 

 

Feels like 27-31 might be a suitable range ATP.

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This is way more than I expected. My theater was dead last night, at least for the first shows. My Dolby show only had about 25 people, 2D was a dozen, and IMAX was one ticket.

 

btw, this movie is godawful but really hilarious in moments

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The only caution I give is that Good Friday heavily inflates the Friday grosses, almost all films will be flat / up or down 5-10% Saturday which will only make the openers look worse in comparison. Friday usually reps more than 50% for the whole weekend so it needs to pull 13+ to have any hopes of going over 25m. 

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2 minutes ago, narniadis said:

The only caution I give is that Good Friday heavily inflates the Friday grosses, almost all films will be flat / up or down 5-10% Saturday which will only make the openers look worse in comparison. Friday usually reps more than 50% for the whole weekend so it needs to pull 13+ to have any hopes of going over 25m. 

Not true.

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3 minutes ago, Litio said:

Not true.

Agreed.

 

BvS, famed for being super-massively frontloaded did 81/166 = 48.8% on Friday. No way CoLL goes that high.

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It's going to be profitable for WB/New Line either way. 

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