The Calm Before The Storm Weekend Thread: Estimates - Curse Of LaLlorona $26.51M | Shazam $17.34M | Breakthrough 11.0M | CM $9.10M

[Eric the Fall Guy]

BOX OFFICE FOR APRIL 19-21

THUMB RANK FILM DIS. SCREENS (CHG) FRIDAY 3-DAY TOTAL WK 1 Curse Of La Llorona NL/WB 3,372 $11.8M $26M $26M 1 2 Shazam! NL/WB 4,183 (-123) $6.1M (-3%) $16.5M (-32%) $120.5M 3 3 Breakthrough Dis/Fox 2,824 $3.8M $10.9M $14.4M 1 4 Captain Marvel Dis 2,653 (-322) $3.1M (+43%) $9M (+6%) $400M 7 5 Little Uni 2,667 $2.9M (-46%) $8.2M (-47%) $29.1M 2 6 Dumbo Dis 3,225 (-481) $2.7M (+19%) $7.1M (-25%) $101.6M 4 7 Pet Sematary Par 3,146 (-439) $1.76M (-40%) $4.65M (-52%) $49.3M 3 8 Missing Link UA 3,437 (+24) $1.8M (+11%) $4.57M (-22%) $13.1M 2 9 Us Uni 2,264 (-504) $1.5M (-28%) $4.1M (-40%) $170.2M 5 10 Hellboy LG/Mill 3,303 $1.3M (-73%) $3.8M (-69%) $19.6M 2

[Legion Again]

9M for CM seems really optimistic to me. But then again, after that Friday number, who knows what’s going on 🤷‍♂️

[TMP]

CM killing it.

Was hoping Shazam! would hit $17m this weekend before Thanos destroys everything next weekend, but oh well 

[CJohn]

I am ready for everything to go over 70% drops next weekend. Stuff like Hellboy and La Llorona are going over 80% drop.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I am ready for everything to go over 70% drops next weekend. Stuff like Hellboy and La Llorona are going over 80% drop.

Those record THEATER DROPS are incoming.

[Ms Lady Hawk]

Just now, CJohn said:

I am ready for everything to go over 70% drops next weekend. Stuff like Hellboy and La Llorona are going over 80% drop.

Everything except CM will probably drop at least 60% next weekend, but they should rebound. I think Endgame hype will end up adding an extra ~20 million to CM’s gross, which it may otherwise not have earned. 

 

For all the angst some purported to have about Shazam, it is doing just fine. It should get to ~150 million. 

[TMP]

Really curious to see the critical reception to Endgame. It sounds like a huge crowd-pleaser, but the 3 hour run-time could turn some critics off. We'llsee

[Krissykins]

 

 

6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I am ready for everything to go over 70% drops next weekend. Stuff like Hellboy and La Llorona are going over 80% drop.

I don’t think La Llorona will drop 80%. 

2 minutes ago, TMP said:

Really curious to see the critical reception to Endgame. It sounds like a huge crowd-pleaser, but the 3 hour run-time could turn some critics off. We'llsee

Critics sit through the awards film every single year. 3 hours won’t turn any of them off. 

[Lordmandeep]

so CM is getting hugely boosted by Endgame hype right? 

 

 

[DlAMONDZ]

1 minute ago, Lordmandeep said:

so CM is getting hugely boosted by Endgame hype right? 

 

 

It's drops have gotten better the closer we get to it so yea

[Ms Lady Hawk]

When do we get RT rating for Endgame? This movie will be ratings proof though. It is destined for historical proportions. The hype is real. I snagged tix for 11AM on Friday. 

[That One Girl]

12 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I am ready for everything to go over 70% drops next weekend. Stuff like Hellboy and La Llorona are going over 80% drop.

 

Some stuff probably will receive a benefit from Endgame sellouts.  I imagine Shazam! will be the second choice for a lot of people, much like how A Quiet Place was the second choice for Infinity War sellouts last year

[cdsacken]

Haha we literally had people adamant and chastising about CM finishing at 405. It will be higher than 405 by the end of next weekend. Probably closer to 408/409. Absolutely ridiculous. I'm curious as what the most conservative end prediction is for it. 

[cdsacken]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

Some stuff probably will receive a benefit from Endgame sellouts.  I imagine Shazam! will be the second choice for a lot of people, much like how A Quiet Place was the second choice for Infinity War sellouts last year

Yeah. End Game 1/2/3/4/5, Shazam 6a, CM 6b. Wouldn't be shocked to see Disney magic flip a and b for next weekend. It would produce a great headline/story.

[Eric the Fall Guy]

Feel like Shazam might honestly not that bad of a hold next week and benefit from Endgame spillover. With so many Endgame sellouts, I think a lot of walk-up people will probably go over to something like Shazam to get their superhero fix

[cdsacken]

15 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

Everything except CM will probably drop at least 60% next weekend, but they should rebound. I think Endgame hype will end up adding an extra ~20 million to CM’s gross, which it may otherwise not have earned. 

 

For all the angst some purported to have about Shazam, it is doing just fine. It should get to ~150 million. 

See now that's just reasonable.  Certain trolls indicated it would do Ant Man box office otherwise (nevermind the fact that Ant Man 2 was after Infinity War and barely did 600). I'd say possibly even 30+ Dom and 100+ WW. Still was gonna a crush it regardless 

[a2k]

5 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Feel like Shazam might honestly not that bad of a hold next week and benefit from Endgame spillover. With so many Endgame sellouts, I think a lot of walk-up people will probably go over to something like Shazam to get their superhero fix

Rampage fell 64%. AQP fell 49%. Would be satisfied if Shazam can split the difference and stay above 7m next weekend.

[Lordmandeep]

Will CM make another 9-10 million nnext weekend? 

 

[Legion Again]

19 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Haha we literally had people adamant and chastising about CM finishing at 405. It will be higher than 405 by the end of next weekend. Probably closer to 408/409. Absolutely ridiculous. I'm curious as what the most conservative end prediction is for it. 

Going very pessimistic:   

7.6M weekend (398.5M)  

4M weekdays (402.5)  

6.5M weekend (409)  

5M next 7 days (414)   

5M rest of run (419)    

 

Correspondingly optimistic would be over 430.   

 

Edited because I made a basic addition mistake and everything was too low by 1M

 

Edited April 20, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[filmlover]

12 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Feel like Shazam might honestly not that bad of a hold next week and benefit from Endgame spillover. With so many Endgame sellouts, I think a lot of walk-up people will probably go over to something like Shazam to get their superhero fix

Depends on how bad everything gets cut down showtime-wise. I imagine theaters everywhere are gonna give Endgame more than half their auditoriums, and stuff that isn't selling will likely have shows cancelled to make way for screens.