Weekend Thread: Friday Estimates: Pika pi! 20.7m, Assemble! 16.1m, Anne Hathaway! 4m, Cheerleaders: Endgame 1.5m, LotR: Origins 825k

[YM!]

You know what I think is breaking out: Toy Story 4.

 

2 months ago, I thought competition would be too powerful but with Pikachu looking at anywhere from $130M DOM to $180M DOM, Aladdin looking around mid $200M, and Pets 2 doing Grinch numbers. I can see a real breakout.

[ZeeSoh]

5 minutes ago, raulbalarezo said:

How many markets it has open?

Is $125M overseas opening weekend even possible ?

According to IMDB its running in 29 countries. Of which 22 opened on Thursday and 7 opened earlier. 

 

125m overseas OW is not possible based on numbers so far

[UserHN]

Just now, ScoobyDoo21 said:

Anyway since someone mentioned Dark Phoenix, if anyone here is saying Detective Pikachu is underperforming ooh boy, i think Dark Phoneix is going to give them a real underperformance. China is going to have to bail it out since i can see it doing 400 million at best.

Everyone expects Dark Phoenix to perform badly. I don't think there's a room for underperformance if the expectations are already super low.

[YM!]

Just now, Minnale101 said:

How ? 

 

How to train you’re dragon 3 did 519 million and I think OW will be higher domestic 

 

 

It’s not doing strong enough opening wise and HTTYD3 will likely have better legs as it was fully animated.

[TMP]

Just now, YourMother the Edgelord said:

You know what I think is breaking out: Toy Story 4.

 

2 months ago, I thought competition would be too powerful but with Pikachu looking at anywhere from $130M DOM to $180M DOM, Aladdin looking around mid $200M, and Pets 2 doing Grinch numbers. I can see a real breakout.

Aladdn’s not even gonna do $200m dom, come on now.

[kitik]

3 minutes ago, TMP said:

I could imagine Dark Phoenix topping it in China ngl...

 

I'll admit, I know absolutely nothing about the China market, but that result would shock me.

 

3 minutes ago, ScoobyDoo21 said:

is it wrong to say that i want to see that

 

lol, nope

I'll admit, that Godzilla water-skiing commercial from a few years ago is still one of the GOAT

[cdsacken]

2 minutes ago, kitik said:

 

Where have you been the past 6 months? You seem to have missed some of the bigger predictions.

The delusional predictions from 6 months ago were detached from reality. BOP which had the most bullish prediction from 90 million dropped its forecast to 56 million a few weeks later.

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

You know what I think is breaking out: Toy Story 4.

 

2 months ago, I thought competition would be too powerful but with Pikachu looking at anywhere from $130M DOM to $180M DOM, Aladdin looking around mid $200M, and Pets 2 doing Grinch numbers. I can see a real breakout.

 

So with 3 family movies looking at a combined total of 700M in a month, you think another family movie will break out as a result?

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, TMP said:

Aladdn’s not even gonna do $200m dom, come on now.

Honestly it's an unknown. Dumbo was way less popular, had horrendous reviews and it did 110. I could see it easily double or less just depends on reviews and wom.

[YM!]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

So with 3 family movies looking at a combined total of 700M in a month, you think another family movie will break out as a result?

I mean, at this point I expect the GA to gobble it up. 

[TMP]

Just now, cdsacken said:

Honestly it's an unknown. Dumbo was way less popular, had horrendous reviews and it did 110. I could see it easily double or less just depends on reviews and wom.

Dumbo had glowing early reactions compared to aladdin... also way less backlash

[UserHN]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

So with 3 family movies looking at a combined total of 700M in a month, you think another family movie will break out as a result?

Why not? It's Pixar.

[Minnale101]

1 minute ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

It’s not doing strong enough opening wise and HTTYD3 will likely have better legs as it was fully animated.

Captain marvel released 2 weeks after it and 2 weeks after detective pikachu is aladdin on Memorial Day weekend 

 

I guess we shall see Sunday with the openings 

[kitik]

6 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

Cinema is truly dead, everything apart of these funny book movies are underperforming lately. People said last year this May would be massive, but now that we are here, everything in is looking like will underperform, except for JW3.

 

I might be misremembering, but I thought maybe a year or year and a half ago I was seeing a few folks throw around a 400+ number for Aladdin.

[TServo2049]

If it happens, I could imagine two possibilities for a live-action Ash movie. Either go with kid Ash (Ian Chen from Shazam?) or do a time jump with a young adult Ash (Ryan Potter?) and do a “how would Ash’s adventure end?” story where after years of training he finally achieves the status of Pokémon Master. And he still has his Pikachu who still will not evolve but is god-tier anyways (there has to be some Thor-meets-Toothless badass lightning-ery). And end it with another time jump and some kind of tear-jerking epilogue (the happy kind) involving Ash, Misty and their kids (think Deathly Hallows 2 meets How to Train Your Dragon 3) that will leave my generation of fans sobbing and gushing tears of joy all the way home.

Edited May 10, 2019 by TServo2049

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Minnale101 said:

Captain marvel released 2 weeks after it and 2 weeks after detective pikachu is aladdin on Memorial Day weekend 

 

I guess we shall see Sunday with the openings 

While it’s obvious Aladdin won’t be as big as Captain Marvel, it’s direct competition.

[HouseOfTheSun]

2 minutes ago, TServo2049 said:

If it happens, I could imagine two possibilities for a live-action Ash movie. Either go with kid Ash (Ian Chen from Shazam?) or do a time jump with a young adult Ash (Ryan Potter?) and do a “how would Ash’s adventure end?” story where after years of training he finally achieves the status of Pokémon Master. And it has to end with another time jump and something tear jerking involving Ash, Misty and their kids (think Deathly Hallows 2 meets How to Train Your Dragon 3) that will leave my generation of fans gushing tears of joy all the way home.

These would all be pretty bad entries for anyone not a hardcore Pokémon fan....and as we can see it really isn’t that big of a deal anymore. I doubt we see anything Pokémon related rushed into theaters now. 

[efialtes76]

7 minutes ago, TMP said:

Still better than Shazam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

Shazam had a $100M budget. 

Dark Phoenix? $180M minimum... 

[CoolK]

14 minutes ago, cannastop said:

$200m ow would be underperforming.

your dp is from which series/mv...i've seen it before

[ScoobyDoo21]

I think an Ash Ketchum movie would have done better. I bet that more people know Ash than Red. It couldn't be too hard to adapt the first few epsidoes into a movie with Jessie and James being the antagonist.

 

Question is that why the hell is Jessie and James still trying to steal a normal ass pikachu.

Edited May 10, 2019 by ScoobyDoo21