Weekend Thread: Friday Estimates: Pika pi! 20.7m, Assemble! 16.1m, Anne Hathaway! 4m, Cheerleaders: Endgame 1.5m, LotR: Origins 825k

[Minnale101]

Just now, cdsacken said:

Sure but we most didn't see end game falling this fast with much better wom. We'll know soon enough. I'm only saying like 7-12 million less. 

A lot of people did predict that endgame drop. I don’t know how you can multiple by 3 on a 357 million OW

 

detective pikachu has room to grow with its OW

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

3 is the best one. and btw since i haven't mentioned it in this thread yet detective pikachu is the worst movie i've seen so far this year. i need an avatar change!

Something Hobbs & Shaw related.

[ScoobyDoo21]

The Rock and both Bad Boys are one of the few good Michael Bay films. Transformers 1 as well.

 

Armaggedon is only a guilty pleasure and the less said about Pearl Harbor the better.

[Brainbug]

The Rock has one of the best action soundtracks of all time:

 

 

[Porthos]

Pika Pika is still a family film and those typically have good legs.  Even AWiT legged it out to 3x. While the late legs were to Disney manipulation, it still probably would have had 2.87x legs or so on its own.

 

Reaction looks to be pretty good for Pika Pika.  If it does close to 60m this weekend, I see no particular reason why 170 to 180 can't be in play for it.

Edited May 11, 2019 by Porthos

[TMP]

4 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

3 is the best one. and btw since i haven't mentioned it in this thread yet detective pikachu is the worst movie i've seen so far this year. i need an avatar change!

something from Aquaman

[Minnale101]

Legs depends really on how other movies are good or bad

 

i think the run will end when toy story releases so 6 weeks 

 

aladdin 

men in black 

x men 

 

I’m iffy on these movies 

[Nova]

Okay but I actually like Pearl Harbor  And Armageddon  

 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Minnale101 said:

Legs depends really on how other movies are good or bad

 

i think the run will end when toy story releases so 6 weeks 

 

aladdin 

men in black 

x men 

 

I’m iffy on these movies 

The other thing is, there can be more than one family film on the market at the same time.

 

I brought up AWiT for a reason.  Not just the "even AWiT" angle, but also because when AWiT came out, the nearly inexplicable Peter Rabbit run was going on at the same time.  Somehow that flipping movie got a 4.60x run off a 20m OW WHILE Black Panther was crushing all in its path AND when AWiT showed up on its fifth weekend.

 

Or, alternatively, AWiT still managed somehow (*cough* somehow *cough*) to pip by 3x with Peter Rabbit already sucking up family film entertainment budget for a month and destined to get nearly another 30m when AWiT opened (Peter Rabbit was at 86.7m the day AWiT opened).

 

I may be a multiplier skeptic, but even I realize that family films are leggier than their counterparts.

 

===

 

It is also true that the higher the open, the more difficulty there is in keeping the legs (hence why I AM a multi skeptic ).  But I just think that Pika should have a nice run when all is said and done.  Especially if it ends up getting better reviews than Aladdin.

[Minnale101]

Just now, Porthos said:

The other thing is, there can be more than one family film on the market at the same time.

 

I brought up AWiT for a reason.  Not just the "even AWiT" angle, but also because when AWiT came out, the nearly inexplicable Peter Rabbit run was going on at the same time.  Somehow that flipping movie got a 4.60x run off a 20m OW WHILE Black Panther was crushing all in its path AND when AWiT showed up on its fifth weekend.

 

Or, alternatively, AWiT still managed somehow (*cough* somehow *cough*) to pip by 3x with Peter Rabbit already sucking up family film entertainment budget for a month and destined to get nearly another 30m when AWiT opened (Peter Rabbit was at 86.7m the day AWiT opened).

 

I may be a multiplier skeptic, but even I realize that family films are leggier than their counterparts.

 

===

 

It is also true that the higher the open, the more difficulty there is in keeping the legs (hence why I AM a multi skeptic ).  But I just think that Pika should have a nice run when all is said and done.  Especially if it ends up getting better reviews than Aladdin.

You always the most optimistic yet realistic 

 

appreciate you’re work as always. If movie can get to summer holidays with some decent run then should be comfortable success and profit for warner Bros 

[John Marston]

Pokémon will have a degree on front loading. There are loads of Pokémon fanatics that will rush out to see it 

[LonePirate]

Oops?

 

 

 

[John Marston]

54 minutes ago, baumer said:

Well I don't have to read every single page of this thread to know that there are typical meltdowns because endgame won't have amazing legs. It's going to end up as the top grossing film in the history of film and it's going to end up being second 2 Star Wars on the domestic front. Who gives a shit if it has good legs or not. The movie grossed so much in the first 10 days or so that it really doesn't matter what the legs are. It was inevitable that the legs on this would be stunted because there was an unprecedented Rush factor to see this movie. I'm sorry to sound preachy but some of you guys just really need to give your head to shake.

 

Agree but if you were one that was hoping Endgame would beat TFA and it really looked possible after opening weekend it’s not hard to be a little disappointed just on that front 

[Barnack]

7 hours ago, Silcardo Jenazad said:

solo is a movie that if someone told you about 10 years ago you would have thought was a no doubt $1 billion dollar movie. 

10 year's ago:

https://web.archive.org/web/20090517103704/https://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/

1	Titanic	Par.	$1,842.9	$600.8	32.6%	$1,242.1	67.4%	1997
2	The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King	NL	$1,119.1	$377.0	33.7%	$742.1	66.3%	2003
3	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest	BV	$1,066.2	$423.3	39.7%	$642.9	60.3%	2006
4	The Dark Knight	WB	$1,001.9	$533.3	53.2%	$468.6	46.8%	2008
5	Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone	WB	$974.7	$317.6	32.6%	$657.2	67.4%	2001
6	Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End	BV	$961.0	$309.4	32.2%	$651.6	67.8%	2007
7	Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix	WB	$938.2	$292.0	31.1%	$646.2	68.9%	2007
8	The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers	NL	$925.3	$341.8	36.9%	$583.5	63.1%	2002^
9	Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace	Fox	$924.3	$431.1	46.6%	$493.2	53.4%	1999
10	Shrek 2	DW	$919.8	$441.2	48.0%	$478.6	52.0%	2004
11	Jurassic Park	Uni.	$914.7	$357.1	39.0%	$557.6	61.0%	1993
12	Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire	WB	$895.9	$290.0	32.4%	$605.9	67.6%	2005
13	Spider-Man 3	Sony	$890.9	$336.5	37.8%	$554.3	62.2%	2007
14	Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets	WB	$878.6	$262.0	29.8%	$616.7	70.2%	2002
15	The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring	NL	$870.8	$314.8	36.1%	$556.0	63.9%	2001^
16	Finding Nemo	BV	$864.6	$339.7	39.3%	$524.9	60.7%	2003
17	Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith	Fox	$848.8	$380.3	44.8%	$468.5	55.2%	2005

 

 

 

Was not that far removed from the last Star Wars and billion dollar movie were still quite the big deal (that what Dark Knight barely did).

 

Solo is a movie that if someone told you 3 year's ago (After Awaken/Rogue One success), you would have thought that was a billion dollar movie too, I think you are right about that.

 

Pika is a completely different tier of underperforming.

[John Marston]

54 minutes ago, baumer said:

Well I don't have to read every single page of this thread to know that there are typical meltdowns because endgame won't have amazing legs. It's going to end up as the top grossing film in the history of film and it's going to end up being second 2 Star Wars on the domestic front. Who gives a shit if it has good legs or not. The movie grossed so much in the first 10 days or so that it really doesn't matter what the legs are. It was inevitable that the legs on this would be stunted because there was an unprecedented Rush factor to see this movie. I'm sorry to sound preachy but some of you guys just really need to give your head to shake.

 

Agree but if you were one that was hoping Endgame would beat TFA and it really looked possible after opening weekend it’s not hard to be a little disappointed just on that front 

[FlitcherBooks]

18 minutes ago, Nova said:

Okay but I actually like Pearl Harbor  And Armageddon  

 

Nothing wrong with that. There’s no such thing as a good or bad film.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, FlitcherBooks said:

Nothing wrong with that. There’s no such thing as a good or bad film.

 

I dare you to still say that when you watch The Godfather and Manos: The Hands of Fate back to back.

[Barnack]

22 minutes ago, Nova said:

Okay but I actually like Pearl Harbor  And Armageddon  

 

 

Loved Pain&Gain a lot personally, even watched it a second time.

[Mekanos]

I'm out of the loop, if Endgame grosses 800-850M, how is beating Avatar WW still looking?

[a2k]

49 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Pika Pika is still a family film and those typically have good legs.  Even AWiT legged it out to 3x. While the late legs were to Disney manipulation, it still probably would have had 2.87x legs or so on its own.

 

Reaction looks to be pretty good for Pika Pika.  If it does close to 60m this weekend, I see no particular reason why 170 to 180 can't be in play for it.

Rampage as a video-game adaptation also did 2.8x, even ignoring the WB push to 101. 

 

55 ow, 2.8x+ legs, 155 dom should be the least it should do imo unless word of mouth ends up being pretty negative which doesn't look to be the case so far. If it opens closer to 60 170+ is very feasible.