Weekend Thread: Friday Estimates: Pika pi! 20.7m, Assemble! 16.1m, Anne Hathaway! 4m, Cheerleaders: Endgame 1.5m, LotR: Origins 825k

[Silcardo Jenazad]

15 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

Solo is a movie that if someone told you 3 year's ago (After Awaken/Rogue One success), you would have thought that was a billion dollar movie too, I think you are right about that.

 

Pika is a completely different tier of underperforming.

See I feel like a need to see the overseas before I can say it's underperforming? I just feel like people were over inflating the demand for this movie. No doubt it's under that super high expectations  Maybe if it got super great reviews it would be like 15% higher but the 90 million plus was crazy talk for me. 

 

[a2k]

Disappointed that Shazam could not recover once AEG hit it. Rampage behaved differently last year. Shazam will barely get to 140 dom. Good compared to the prod budget (100) but underwhelming for sure. The global cume will cross 360 (or already has) and considering China is a very small part with dom being heavy it will ensure great returns.

[Pure Spirit]

Surprised to see these Endgame drops given the CS/RT ratings. I'm also reading a lot of anecdotal "IW was better" posts all over the web, as people digest the movie and start asking questions about the plot (similar to another franchise movie which shall not be named).

 

I do wonder if Endgame was largely considered better than IW that instead of heavy drops we'd be talking about the first $3B WW movie and $1B domestic. Hard to say. Like most people, I'm chalking this up to "uncharted territory" as the opening couple weeks may have satiated virtually all of the demand. The runtime may also be a factor, especially as Endgame does drag in parts (being a finale) whereas Infinity War felt like a nonstop theme park ride.

[Silcardo Jenazad]

2 minutes ago, a2k said:

Disappointed that Shazam could not recover once AEG hit it. Rampage behaved differently last year. Shazam will barely get to 140 dom. Good compared to the prod budget (100) but underwhelming for sure. The global cume will cross 360 (or already has) and considering China is a very small part with dom being heavy it will ensure great returns. 

will it get to 370 ww? that put's it like the 1st cap movie but on a smaller budget? I wonder If it was just not enough spectacle for china or is there something about the material that does not work there. 

[ZeeSoh]

2 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Detective Pikachu has made 43.4m till Friday. This includes 10.4 million till Thursday in Japan. Removing that gives 32m till Friday (assuming 1m in Japan on Friday). The only major market it has not opened in is Russia. 

 

Shazam had made 44m overseas till Friday. Out of this Russia was 1.96m. Removing that gives a total of 42.04

 

So DP is running at 32m till Friday in OS-Ch&Rus. Shazam was 42m till Friday in OS-Ch&Rus. 

 

Shazam went on to gross 102.3m till Sunday. DP is running 24% behind Shazam but lets assume Shazam is more frontloaded. DP will also make about 8 million more in China over the OW. With all others being equal it seems like DP is heading for around 100m overseas opening. Combined with about 60m domestic opening gives us a combined opening weekend of 160m which is where Shazam opened to as well. 

 

160m is precisely where Deadline had it pegged as well before its opening. A report on which a few fans laughed. 

 

Similar trajectory as Shazam will result in a similar gross, around 375m. But even assuming a better run both overseas and domestically I dont see this doing more than 450m. Right now I have it at 430m worldwide 

Posted this in the DP overseas thread. Lets see how right it becomes

[stealthyfrog]

6 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

Surprised to see these Endgame drops given the CS/RT ratings. I'm also reading a lot of anecdotal "IW was better" posts all over the web, as people digest the movie and start asking questions about the plot (similar to another franchise movie which shall not be named).

 

I do wonder if Endgame was largely considered better than IW that instead of heavy drops we'd be talking about the first $3B WW movie and $1B domestic. Hard to say. Like most people, I'm chalking this up to "uncharted territory" as the opening couple weeks may have satiated virtually all of the demand. The runtime may also be a factor, especially as Endgame does drag in parts (being a finale) whereas Infinity War felt like a nonstop theme park ride.

Endgame and TLJ are not similar situations. TLJ's honeymoon period wasn't even a week long. People are still very positive about Endgame.

[Minnale101]

5 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Posted this in the DP overseas thread. Lets see how right it becomes

I’m not sure how it only does 450 million 

 

movie is projected to do 15 million in japan 

 

atleast 20-25 million more in China 

 

the domestic opening might be higher shazam and will have better legs just for the fact that it doesn’t have Endgame killing its legs 3 weeks after 

 

that 75 million difference is gonna be shattered easily 

[ZeeSoh]

2 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

I’m not sure how it only does 450 million 

 

movie is projected to do 15 million in japan 

 

atleast 20-25 million more in China 

 

the domestic opening might be higher shazam and will have better legs just for the fact that it doesn’t have Endgame killing its legs 3 weeks after 

 

that 75 million difference is gonna be shattered easily 

Its opening in comparable OS territories is 24% weaker than Shazam. Despite that I have it doing the same as Shazam over the opening weekend anticipating better legs. 

 

Even overall I have it doing 90m more than Shazam (450 vs 360). That 90m is where those extra gross from domestic/China/Japan is gonna go. 

 

Even giving 25m extra gross in other OS countries (apart from China/Japan/Dom) will only take it to 475m at max

[Minnale101]

Shazam did 10.2 million in china Saturday 

 

Detective pikachu 16.8 million in China Saturday 

 

shazam number OD worldwide was inflated because of holiday in China 

 

also 2nd weekend of detective pikachu will do more than Shazam FW in japan 

[Pure Spirit]

2 hours ago, cookie said:

At the same time two of his bad ones are Age of Extinction and Pearl Harbor which count as ten bad movies each.

Pearl Harbor was an attempt to copy the formula of Titanic. Unfortunately the comparisons to Titanic did Pearl Harbor no favors and it just became a laughingstock.

[ZeeSoh]

1 minute ago, Minnale101 said:

Shazam did 10.2 million in china Saturday 

 

Detective pikachu 16.8 million in China Saturday 

 

shazam number OD worldwide was inflated because of holiday in China 

 

also 2nd weekend of detective pikachu will do more than Shazam FW in japan 

Ok then you obviously think its gonna do more than 475m. So what do you think its gonna do worldwide total?

[Minnale101]

Just now, ZeeSoh said:

Ok then you obviously think its gonna do more than 475m. So what do you think its gonna do worldwide total?

I don’t think it’s gonna do much more than 475 million 

 

I think 530 million. Which for 150 million dollar budget is a success 

[ScoobyDoo21]

2 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

Pearl Harbor was an attempt to copy the formula of Titanic. Unfortunately the comparisons to Titanic did Pearl Harbor no favors and it just became a laughingstock.

The biggest problem is that it lasted longer than it should. The event comes in half way and then the movie continues into some raid or some shit.

Edited May 11, 2019 by ScoobyDoo21

[John Marston]

According to the overseas thread. DP is not doing impressive numbers anywhere really 

[doublejack]

4 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

Surprised to see these Endgame drops given the CS/RT ratings. I'm also reading a lot of anecdotal "IW was better" posts all over the web, as people digest the movie and start asking questions about the plot (similar to another franchise movie which shall not be named).

 

I do wonder if Endgame was largely considered better than IW that instead of heavy drops we'd be talking about the first $3B WW movie and $1B domestic. Hard to say. Like most people, I'm chalking this up to "uncharted territory" as the opening couple weeks may have satiated virtually all of the demand. The runtime may also be a factor, especially as Endgame does drag in parts (being a finale) whereas Infinity War felt like a nonstop theme park ride.

I'm not buying any of the "IW is better than Endgame" argument. It is simply not true. RT scores do not support that position. Endgame opened higher on the IMDB top 250 list and will almost certainly remain higher. CS for Endgame is better with an A+. The whole "IW is better" argument is a myth. There is nothing that supports it.

 

There is also no support for the argument "If Endgame were better it would be $1B DOM and $3B WW". The fact is, there's only so much money a comic book movie is going to make. Endgame, as of this weekend, has out grossed IW both DOM and WW. Endgame has made more money than any CBM ever, everywhere. We can assume that most of the people who went to the theater to see IW came back and saw Endgame, and then some. They just did it in less time. Avoiding spoilers is one reason. Anticipation is another reason.

 

So, what is taking shape is what some had predicted - known as second part syndrome. Just like DH1 and DH2, Endgame is looking to be more front loaded than IW. Bigger OW and not as good multi, but will make more overall money. The data is pointing to a rush factor at work. I also believe the much longer run time of Endgame is a factor, but that has a lesser impact. I believe it hurts when it comes to repeat viewings, but there is data to say I'm wrong (Titanic and Avatar both clock in with similar runtimes). It is crazy to think about, but maybe the biggest impact the 3 hour runtime had was limiting the OW.

[Jake Gittes]

IW is better than Endgame.

[LonePirate]

3 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

Pearl Harbor was an attempt to copy the formula of Titanic. Unfortunately the comparisons to Titanic did Pearl Harbor no favors and it just became a laughingstock.

Pearl Harbor would have been infinitely better if it had explored a romance between Affleck and Hartnett instead of making Beckinsale the focal point between them.

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

IW is better than Endgame.

I actually agree...

 

That doesn't mean Endgame is a bad movie...I gave it a B+ in my review.  It just means Infinity War was a spectacular movie:).

 

As I said elsewhere, Infinity War is the Empire Strikes Back to Endgame's Return of the Jedi - you get all the rewarding payoff you want, but it does lead to a "not quite as great" movie as a movie:)...

[IronJimbo]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

I actually agree...

 

That doesn't mean Endgame is a bad movie...I gave it a B+ in my review.  It just means Infinity War was a spectacular movie:).

 

As I said elsewhere, Infinity War is the Empire Strikes Back to Endgame's Return of the Jedi - you get all the rewarding payoff you want, but it does lead to a "not quite as great" movie as a movie:)...

I agree in a way, it's more like it does mean Endgames a bad movie tho.

[CoolioD1]

8 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

IW is better than Endgame.

yeah i agree w/ whoever was saying endgame doesn't have as much rewatch value. i saw infinity war a couple times in the cinemas i've had no interest in going back to endgame a second time.