Thuswind Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 Are you guys thinking that Endgame's drops will start leveling out to closer match Infinity War, or drop bellow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Thuswind said: Are you guys thinking that Endgame's drops will start leveling out to closer match Infinity War, or drop bellow? It's more that Infinity War drops hard this week and it truly falls off a cliff a couple weeks later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 56 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said: Lion King and SW9 under Cap Marvel are not outrageous clubs. We have worse clubs. What other clubs for SW9 exist at this point? You want me to list them all? Don't got all day. The closest one to that one would be Ep IX < 1b WW. In light of CM's 1.125b WW haul, I really don't see the need of one so close to that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 26 minutes ago, cdsacken said: It's more that Infinity War drops hard this week and it truly falls off a cliff a couple weeks later. why do you say that. Infinity war after its 2nd weekend drop, dropped > 50% only when Jurassic World 2 opened. All other weekend all the way till labor day weekend were sub 50% drops. So it definitely did not fall over the cliff? https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=marvel0518.htm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Porthos said: You want me to list them all? Don't got all day. The closest one to that one would be Ep IX < 1b WW. In light of CM's 1.125b WW haul, I really don't see the need of one so close to that. I did not know about that one. I agree with you. CM is too close to 1B and 1B is a gutsy target. I am out either way 🙂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Porthos said: You want me to list them all? Don't got all day. The closest one to that one would be Ep IX < 1b WW. In light of CM's 1.125b WW haul, I really don't see the need of one so close to that. A bit more to the point, clubs aren't supposed to be prediction threads, as far as I know. They're really not supposed to be "look at how close i can come to a total without going over/under". Instead, again as I understand it, they're suppose to generate discussion as well as being at least a little unlikely. Sure some successful clubs have been likely. But, really, IMO the point of clubs it is to make a counter-intuitive take, present reasons for it, and then see who agrees. Plus all the debate that comes out of it. But if there's already similar clubs... Again, what's the point? We already know that lots of folks on this board think that TROS will under-perform/do badly worldwide. The true counterintuitive take, and something worthy of a club at this point, is the pro-TROS outlook. It's why I keep getting tempted to make that TROS > 700m DOM club. I think that is just enough on the outside of folks current perceptions to generate some fun discussion. Just haven't been motivated enough to actually pull the trigger yet. EDIT::: @keysersoze123: I just saw the comment you made while I was typing up some longer thoughts. I just wanted to kinda get my PoV of the purpose of clubs out there. Edited May 14, 2019 by Porthos 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cap Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Porthos said: It's why I keep getting tempted to make that TROS > 700m DOM club. I think that is just enough on the outside of folks current perceptions to generate some fun discussion. Just haven't been motivated enough to actually pull the trigger yet. Spoiler You pull the trigger and I will do my Frozen Club 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menor the Destroyer Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Porthos said: A bit more to the point, clubs aren't supposed to be prediction threads, as far as I know. They're really not supposed to be "look at how close i can come to a total without going over/under". Instead, again as I understand it, they're suppose to generate discussion as well as being at least a little unlikely. Sure some successful clubs have been likely. But, really, IMO the point of clubs it is to make a counter-intuitive take, present reasons for it, and then see who agrees. Plus all the debate that comes out of it. But if there's already similar clubs... Again, what's the point? We already know that lots of folks on this board think that TROS will under-perform/do badly worldwide. The true counterintuitive take, and something worthy of a club at this point, is the pro-TROS outlook. It's why I keep getting tempted to make that TROS > 700m DOM club. I think that is just enough on the outside of folks current perceptions to generate some fun discussion. Just haven't been motivated enough to actually pull the trigger yet. EDIT::: I just saw your comment @keysersoze123 you made while I was typing up some longer thoughts. I just wanted to kinda get my PoV of the purpose of clubs out there. Is TROS > 700m really that crazy though? I feel like that's in most people's ranges. TROS>750 million might be a more interesting club Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Menor said: Is TROS > 700m really that crazy though? I feel like that's in most people's ranges. TROS>750 million might be a more interesting club It would have been a lot crazier when I first wanted to do it last Dec. And, yeah I think it would be. Part of it is that we're still a little bit in the post-trailer glow. But I think enough people think it'll be TLJ +/-, never mind TROS < 600m that it'll be interesting. Like, I can't even in good conscience make a 750m club as I don't think it'll reach that without some luck/great reception. At the same time I think simply saying "TROS > TLJ" is far far faaaaaaaaaaaaaaar too wimpy of a call. Let's not forget, 700m is a LOT of simoleons. So, yeah. I think 700m is a good line, personally for it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ms Lady Hawk Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 Went to see Pikachu and it just wasn’t my type of movie. My son fell asleep and I was bored. Maybe if I were a video game fan who played Pokémon, I would have enjoyed it so much more. I wonder what the word of mouth will be on this movie, but I feel that you had to have a working knowledge of the various Pokémon characters to truly get the most out of the movie. 4/10 With all that being said, the box office performance seems fine to me thus far. As someone mentioned, this is the only place where people seem to be acting as if the movie performed poorly. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 (edited) 29 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said: why do you say that. Infinity war after its 2nd weekend drop, dropped > 50% only when Jurassic World 2 opened. All other weekend all the way till labor day weekend were sub 50% drops. So it definitely did not fall over the cliff? https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=marvel0518.htm 52.6% on it's 4th weekend. Did 29.4 million After June 17th it was at 664.35. In the next 13 weeks it made 13.4 million. The very next weekend it dropped 52.5% and it died a slow death after that. Edited May 14, 2019 by cdsacken 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 1 minute ago, cdsacken said: 52.6% on it's 4th weekend. Did 29.4 million After June 17th it was at 664.35. In the next 13 weeks it made 13.4 million That is off 5m weekend or so. That is > 3x legs. That is not awful. Of course last year only boost IW could get was with Ant-Man 2 and that did not break out huge. This year it has Toy Story 4 and Lion King. Both those movies will be way bigger than Ant Man for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ms Lady Hawk Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, cdsacken said: 52.6% on it's 4th weekend. Did 29.4 million After June 17th it was at 664.35. In the next 13 weeks it made 13.4 million. The very next weekend it dropped 52.5% and it died a slow death after that. What do you expect for Endgame this weekend? I would think ~32 would be a fair number. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 That's my point. It got worse the next and it was 2.66 EG has spiderman and other things to link to. I'm not saying it's going to be better, it's just hard to be much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 (edited) 3 minutes ago, cdsacken said: That's my point. It got worse the next and it was 2.66 EG has spiderman and other things to link to. I'm not saying it's going to be better, it's just hard to be much worse. Spider-man is still a sony distributed release. Why would Sony try to help Endgame I am not sure. I see greater help from Toy Story 4 and Lion King. I see MIB International benefiting from Spidey than Endgame. Edited May 14, 2019 by keysersoze123 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said: What do you expect for Endgame this weekend? I would think ~32 would be a fair number. 32.9 is actually what I forecasted but that's a big Saturday that it might not get to and only a 30% drop. If the Saturday is only 14.2 with say a 33% drop on Sunday 32 is easy to see. 30.5-33.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said: Spider-man is still a sony distributed release. Why would Sony try to help Endgame I am not sure. I see greater help from Toy Story 4 and Lion King. Yeah I imagine they would. It's going to be the most successful they have produced thanks to the MCU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tawasal Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 24 minutes ago, Porthos said: It would have been a lot crazier when I first wanted to do it last Dec. And, yeah I think it would be. Part of it is that we're still a little bit in the post-trailer glow. But I think enough people think it'll be TLJ +/-, never mind TROS < 600m that it'll be interesting. Like, I can't even in good conscience make a 750m club as I don't think it'll reach that without some luck/great reception. At the same time I think simply saying "TROS > TLJ" is far far faaaaaaaaaaaaaaar too wimpy of a call. Let's not forget, 700m is a LOT of simoleons. So, yeah. I think 700m is a good line, personally for it. Make a TRoS over BP domestic club. I will support you all the way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 Just now, tawasal said: Make a TRoS over BP domestic club. I will support you all the way. Ooooh, that's an interesting hook that I didn't think of. Only 60k more too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, cdsacken said: Yeah I imagine they would. It's going to be the most successful they have produced thanks to the MCU. Movies benefit each other when they have drive-ins going for double show. Since Endgame would be 9 weeks into release and MIB would be just over 2 weeks into release, I see drive-ins go for Spidey/MIB double show. Also since endgame would be 8xx million at that point and summer is choke full of releases, I am not sure it will have enough screens to be big like CM did. 5 minutes ago, cdsacken said: 32.9 is actually what I forecasted but that's a big Saturday that it might not get to and only a 30% drop. If the Saturday is only 14.2 with say a 33% drop on Sunday 32 is easy to see. 30.5-33.5 I think this weekend Endgame will have good drop. I am thinking 35m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
