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Monday numbers - 05/13/19 | Actuals: A: EG 4.70, PDP 3.69

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Compared to other movies for detective pikachu this year 

 

3.7 million 72% drop 

 

shazam 3.07 million Monday 77.6 % drop

 

dumbo 2.8 million Monday 78.2 % drop

 

how to train you’re dragon 3 2.32 million Monday 85% drop

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Pikachu had a bigger drop than usual on Sunday so its Monday drop got made up a little here.  The End Game drop is in line with IW's drop on the same day. Will be interesting to see if it mirrors its run the rest of the way or not. 

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Back after a bit of a break.

 

CW 728.5+96.7*1.17=842M

IM3 728.5+96.7*1.33=857M

AoU 728.5+96.7*1.47=871M

IW 728.5+96.7*1.38=862M

TA 728.5+96.7*1.94=916M

 

The multi for CW,IM3, AoU, TA are a bit inflated by Memorial weekend being  a week closer for them. IW a bit depressed by DP2. Latest outlook from me is 850-870, truly RIP my club bonuses (base goal still looking good).

Edited by Thanos Legion
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1 minute ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

-‎weekdays (19.3) = 743
Mon (4.9) 
Tue (6.1)
Wed (4.3)
Thu (4)

•4th
-weekend (35) [-45%] = 778

Seems about right?

I think it's plausible but on the high side. I predict the weekend drop around 48-50%

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3 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

-‎weekdays (19.3) = 743
Mon (4.9) 
Tue (6.1)
Wed (4.3)
Thu (4)

•4th
-weekend (35) [-45%] = 778

Seems about right?

AIW was +112%, +75%, -26% over 4th weekend FSS

Using those holds with 4 Thu AEG would give 8.5 + 14.9 + 11.0 = 34.4

So 34-35 weekend's possible but feel that's the high-end.

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1 hour ago, a2k said:

AIW was +112%, +75%, -26% over 4th weekend FSS

Using those holds with 4 Thu AEG would give 8.5 + 14.9 + 11.0 = 34.4

So 34-35 weekend's possible but feel that's the high-end.

IW faced DP2, hence the low Friday bump

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Endgame now has $723.75 mln domestic. Before the next weekend it could have around $743M. If the next weekend drop wouldn't be so harsh like so far, it might add another $35M = $778M by the next Sunday.

 

Now look at Iron Man 3 numbers. It also had over $35 million weekend before the Memorial Day weekend (it was May 17-19th, like this year) and after May 19th Iron Man add another $71,34M to its domestic gross with also very strong competition in the next few weeks. I think we have very similar situation here.

 

With similar pattern, Endgame should finish its run with $849-850 mln. Of course it might have much better "late legs" due to Spider-Man release in July, that's why for now, I would say $840-859 mln is the target for the film.

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42 minutes ago, LexJoker said:

Me trying to convince myself that Pika Pika numbers through the weekend are not bad, even though its pretty bad.

 

giphy.gif

 

 

It’s bad in the sense of what people over predicted the past 6 months.

 

i honestly don’t blame anyone for gloating about the movie underperforming. Months of over prediction. It won’t take few days to let go of it lol

 

the opening relative to a 150 million dollar budget film is decent. 

 

All depends on legs now 

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14 minutes ago, youcantseemyname said:

So any chance of WB doubling down on a sequel for Pikachu, cause it would be really brave for them to make another one, if this one does 400 or less.

First of all, it is up to Legendary, not WB. And if the movie makes decent revenue in theatrical revenue and does well in ancillaries, I don't see why they won't make another Pokemon film. There likely won't be a sequel to this either way.

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Endgame legs have been disappointing. 

 

If Pika had opened to a much larger amount, then that would be a fair drop. As is stands, from opening $100m+ over IW, by its 3rd weekend they were already on par. I get that there is frontloading and the series finale would have exacerbated it, but still it's a fantastic movie and it is just dropping off at a rather rapid rate and will now come in far below TFA

 

Perhaps, there is indeed a capacity audience over a movie's entire run. I really can't believe that more people would've seen the awful TFA, but its amazing release date had ensured near $750m by holiday's end which would have probably captured the masses who never watch movies. 

 

At least EG will beat Avatar WW to make up for this loss to an inferior and distinctly average product.  

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29 minutes ago, BK007 said:

Endgame legs have been disappointing. 

 

If Pika had opened to a much larger amount, then that would be a fair drop. As is stands, from opening $100m+ over IW, by its 3rd weekend they were already on par. I get that there is frontloading and the series finale would have exacerbated it, but still it's a fantastic movie and it is just dropping off at a rather rapid rate and will now come in far below TFA

 

Perhaps, there is indeed a capacity audience over a movie's entire run. I really can't believe that more people would've seen the awful TFA, but its amazing release date had ensured near $750m by holiday's end which would have probably captured the masses who never watch movies. 

 

At least EG will beat Avatar WW to make up for this loss to an inferior and distinctly average product.  

How are the legs disappointing when it fucking opened with 350+ million. This was never going to do 900+ million - not with it's release date.  Just like when Infinity War that broke OW record didn't even manage to get to 700 million.  The next Avengers movie needs a December date... but thats sadly never going to happen. 

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