Tuesday Numbers - 05/14/19 | A:EG - 5.7, DP - 5.4

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, terrestrial said:

and BOPro released their we forcast

 

Weekend Forecast

Film	Distributor	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, May 19	% Change from Last Wknd
John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum	Lionsgate / Summit	$52,500,000	$52,500,000	NEW
Avengers: Endgame	Disney / Marvel	$36,000,000	$778,900,000	-43%
Pokémon: Detective Pikachu	Warner Bros.	$27,600,000	$97,600,000	-49%
A Dog’s Journey	Universal	$9,000,000	$9,000,000	NEW
The Hustle	United Artists Releasing	$6,100,000	$23,100,000	-53%
The Sun Is Also A Star	Warner Bros.	$6,000,000	$6,000,000	NEW
Long Shot	Lionsgate / Summit	$4,000,000	$26,400,000	-36%
The Intruder	Sony / Screen Gems	$3,700,000	$27,800,000	-48%
Uglydolls	STX	$2,800,000	$18,500,000	-33%
Poms	STX	$2,300,000	$10,000,000	-57%

reasons and more here to find

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-forecast-john-wick-chapter-three-parabellum-dog-journey-sun-also-star/

My estimate for Endgame in the weekend thread got used - hurray for me:)...

[keysersoze123]

Last week all sites overestimated Endgame and Pikachu. Obviously its better to wait until today's number before saying its being overestimated, but that must be some hold from the tuesday number.

[terrestrial]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

but that must be some hold from the tuesday number.

BOPro is earlier as the others with their w-e estimates and has as such less data to use with/for their calculation models.

[Cappoedameron]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Last week all sites overestimated Endgame and Pikachu. Obviously its better to wait until today's number before saying its being overestimated, but that must be some hold from the tuesday number.

I think they're overestimating both John Wick and Endgame. Endgame drops have been pretty big the first two weeks, why should we expect now is when it's gonna hold?

Edited May 15, 2019 by Cappoedameron

[keysersoze123]

Just now, terrestrial said:

BOPro is earlier as the others with their w-e estimates and has as such less data to use with/for their calculation models.

Yes. Last week their prediction did not look realistic. Its not just last weekend, even the weekend before they overestimated big time but at least weekdays kind of pointed towards bigger 2nd weekend that what we saw.

 

Endgame numbers are small enough for it to surprise a bit on the upside. That said even with Monday numbers this seems optimistic prediction considering its monday was very similar to IW.

[terrestrial]

finally

 

Quote

Tuesday, May 14, 2019
 

<<Prev Day <Wk <Mo <Yr	Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019	>Yr >Mo >Wk >>Next Day
TD YD Title (Click to View) Studio Daily Gross % +/- YD / LW Theaters / Avg Gross To-Date Day 1 1 Avengers: Endgame BV $5,742,618 +22% -54% 4,662 $1,232 $734,190,353 19 2 2 Pokemon Detective Pikachu WB $5,337,617 +45% - 4,202 $1,270 $63,396,074 5 3 3 The Hustle UAR $1,487,645 +62% - 3,007 $495 $15,412,714 5 4 6 Poms STX $980,897 +87% - 2,750 $357 $6,868,476 5 5 4 The Intruder (2019) SGem $888,354 +45% -33% 2,222 $400 $23,067,038 12 6 5 Long Shot LG/S $835,508 +47% -40% 3,230 $259 $21,286,612 12 7 7 Uglydolls STX $405,275 +69% -43% 3,652 $111 $15,153,539 12 8 8 Tolkien FoxS $298,811 +49% - 1,495 $200 $2,700,365 5 9 9 Breakthrough Fox $264,563 +52% -53% 1,902 $139 $37,655,233 28 10 10 The Curse of La Llorona WB (NL) $226,426 +32% -51% 1,182 $192 $51,849,563 26 11 11 Captain Marvel BV $195,088 +28% -51% 1,504 $130 $424,157,909 68 12 12 Shazam! WB (NL) $105,317 +44% -64% 936 $113 $137,280,471 40 - - Little Uni. $76,400 +48% -61% 586 $130 $39,835,870 33 - - Student of the Year 2 FIP $70,892 +96% - 190 $373 $569,094 5 - - Dumbo (2019) BV $64,914 +29% -59% 837 $78 $111,114,772 47 - - Penguins (Disneynature) BV $41,382 +21% -29% 285 $145 $7,132,827 28 - - Us Uni. $36,990 +18% -48% 266 $139 $174,480,100 54 - - Red Joan IFC $32,184 +25% -13% 195 $165 $955,919 26 - - Pet Sematary (2019) Par. $30,514 +5% -54% 304 $100 $54,299,657 40 - - Missing Link UAR $12,551 -0% -61% 202 $62 $16,377,380 33 - - How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World Uni. $12,345 +19% -25% 187 $66 $160,163,055 82 - - The Mustang Focus $9,945 +13% -56% 118 $84 $5,024,205 61 - - After (2019) Aviron $8,225 +128% -59% 90 $91 $12,069,469 33 - - High Life A24 $8,221 +47% -32% 52 $158 $1,179,248 40 - - Hotel Mumbai BST $7,369 +74% -33% 50 $147 $9,538,001 54 - - Hellboy (2019) LG/S $5,883 +15% -48% 127 $46 $21,893,476 33 - - Non-Fiction IFC $5,333 +34% +77% 5 $1,067 $97,039 12 - - Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral LGF $4,577 +4% -31% 89 $51 $73,247,731 75 - - Play the Flute 5&2 $4,353 - - 3 $1,451 $129,360 107 - - Unplanned PFR $4,007 -23% -75% 55 $73 $18,008,318 47 - - The Best of Enemies STX $3,744 +2% -57% 81 $46 $10,198,965 40 - - Five Feet Apart LGF $2,952 +25% -53% 87 $34 $45,589,674 61 - - Charlie Says IFC $2,281 -12% - 38 $60 $25,562 5 - - Gloria Bell A24 $1,944 -14% -37% 24 $81 $5,601,858 68 - - Fighting with My Family MGM $749 +6% -66% 28 $27 $22,953,827 90 - - Fast Color LGF $538 +26% -18% 4 $135 $75,671 26 - - Diane IFC $476 -30% -34% 16 $30 $333,258 47 - - Faith, Hope & Love AAE $464 +158% -40% 5 $93 $200,837 61 - - Mia and the White Lion Ledafilms $344 +139% -35% 4 $86 $399,471 33 - - Frank and Ava Hann. $142 -36% -61% 2 $71 $12,382 145

[terrestrial]

why can I not change the size of the font in a post anymore?

Recently it started to be not possible anymore in an edit, but in a new post?

 

I'd prefer to be able to adjust a chart to the actual forum's template

 

As I can also not see who is logged in anymore, whom to ask / ping / ??? for that kind of question?

[Minnale101]

In UK endgame 3rd weekend was below infinity war 3rd weekend 

 

 

Endgame 5.5 million 

 

infinity war 7.7 million 

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/uk/?yr=2018&wk=19&p=.htm

 

[keysersoze123]

15 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

I think they're overestimating both John Wick and Endgame. Endgame drops have been pretty big the first two weeks, why should we expect now is when it's gonna hold?

I can understand big drops seen so far as the raw BO has been so huge. But now the number is not that big its drops will get better. Plus John Wick 3 is much smaller competition than Deadpool was to IW last year.

[AndyK]

38 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

why can I not change the size of the font in a post anymore?

Recently it started to be not possible anymore in an edit, but in a new post?

 

I'd prefer to be able to adjust a chart to the actual forum's template

 

As I can also not see who is logged in anymore, whom to ask / ping / ??? for that kind of question?

I don't see any problems !

[cdsacken]

Yeah I don't buy 36 either. Easily can see it at 32ish though.

[JB33]

Should I even hope for a soft Wednesday drop?

[a2k]

Dumbo doubled it's prod budget (170) globally only by a small margin and with a very low dom compared to the budget.

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$111,114,772	32.2%
+ Foreign:	$233,429,856	67.8%
= Worldwide:	$344,544,628

[Minnale101]

20 minutes ago, a2k said:

Dumbo doubled it's prod budget (170) globally only by a small margin and with a very low dom compared to the budget.

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$111,114,772	32.2%
+ Foreign:	$233,429,856	67.8%
= Worldwide:	$344,544,628

Just checking some numbers 

 

movie was doing double Shazam in some countries in Europe 

 

Europe was really good for it 

 

aladdin even with bad reviews is gonna do very good 

[cdsacken]

33 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Should I even hope for a soft Wednesday drop?

Nope.

[a2k]

42 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Should I even hope for a soft Wednesday drop?

last week tue and wed holds -

aiw +29% -34%

aeg +17% -33%

 

this week -

aiw +30% -30%

aeg +22%  ?

 

+/-2 of aiw's 30% seems like a safe bet (but really who knows, using just 1 data point)

Edited May 15, 2019 by a2k

[JB33]

26 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Nope.

 

18 minutes ago, a2k said:

last week tue and wed holds -

aiw +29% -34%

aeg +17% -33%

 

this week -

aiw +30% -30%

aeg +22%  ?

 

+/-2 of aiw's 30% seems like a safe bet (but really who knows, using just 1 data point)

Thanks guys. Yeah, I'm not going to hope for too much. I guess I just want it to clear $4M (which is what I was hoping the Thursday number would be, $4M flat).

[cdsacken]

9 minutes ago, JB33 said:

 

Thanks guys. Yeah, I'm not going to hope for too much. I guess I just want it to clear $4M (which is what I was hoping the Thursday number would be, $4M flat).

Same here.  4m would be 30.3% drop. Definitely doable but not a lock.

[Cooper Legion]

@Shawn, as a normal user I can’t respond to your weekend thread question there, so doing so here. I believe Claudio’s point in quoting those tweets is that Endgame was #1 globally for the weekend, not Pika, as the 2nd tweet stated.

[Shawn Robbins]

6 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

@Shawn, as a normal user I can’t respond to your weekend thread question there, so doing so here. I believe Claudio’s point in quoting those tweets is that Endgame was #1 globally for the weekend, not Pika, as the 2nd tweet stated.

Thanks, @Thanos Legion -- I misread the second tweet before I replied, and just realized the point. Not sure if that was an error on our end or a studio email that was copied, but obviously/definitely a human error on some end...