Raya and the Last Dragon | March 5, 2021 | Premier Access/Theater simultaneous release

[PNF2187]

13 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah not only Raya, Soul too felt like nobody really knows about it until the WOM spread and since it was OTT release all the hype almost died in the week.

If I'm being honest, I think Disney has been hoping that their animated releases were pretty reliant on WOM for the last several years. It's great when there's a large enough opening for it to spread, but when the WOM is fairly tepid, or in Raya's case, not enough people are seeing it in the first place, then it really doesn't do it any favours.

 

I think Soul being an OTT release without PA helped it greatly with regards to getting the word out. It died out quickly, but having it as brand new release just pop up in the service is probably enough to pique the interest of anyone who logged onto the service that day, and Soul got far more promotion than most Disney+ releases, which probably helped a bit too.

[kkccoo]

Watched it. It is a OK movie, nothing special and nothing terrible. 

 

IMO, without cinema box office news/WOM, it lost the opportunities of good free marketing and expose. 

Edited March 8, 2021 by kkccoo

[Mau]

6 hours ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

This is a certified flop. 

 

In USA its underperformance is somewhat justified, but there really is nothing to put the blame on for the disaster at China's and SK's B.O.

 

Moana itself performed poorely in many Overseas key markets, yet it looks like WDAS didn't learn a single thing about what the WW audiences like.

 

I don't understand how it could break even, either. People seem to be forgetting that WDAS' films are super expensive, and Raya certainly had more than 100 mil $ for production budget + 150 (at least) for global P&A.

Even with 90 mil. coming from D+ and 100 from the global B.O. its loss are going to be greater than 100 milion $, which would push RAYA into the Olympus of the biggest B.O. bombs ever.

 

It's a disaster through and  through, and I say that as a Disney fan.

Are we entering a new era of Disney animation? Maybe the revival era ended with frozen 2 and we enter in a  post-pandemic or post-disney plus era.  That would be interesting to know.

Btw I loved the film and it is sad it is a flop  

[Joyous Legion]

11 minutes ago, Mau said:

Are we entering a new era of Disney animation? Maybe the revival era ended with frozen 2

Kind of had that feeling, but it’s pretty subjective of course. And “eras” aren’t necessarily apparent until you’re several movies into them anyway.

[kkccoo]

3 hours ago, Mau said:

Are we entering a new era of Disney animation? Maybe the revival era ended with frozen 2 and we enter in a  post-pandemic or post-disney plus era.  That would be interesting to know.

Btw I loved the film and it is sad it is a flop  

I am afraid we are already in the Disney plus era now. Movies will face narrow theater windows which means shorter legs. So it is tougher for the original movies to break out with good WOM.

[Joyous Legion]

Wow when they said they were making a theatrical Avatar movie I didn’t realize it would release so soon.

[HouseOfTheSun]

I don’t think this is something that Disney is going to look to reverse at all either. In the back of everybody’s minds, you had to have known that theatrical was being less and less prioritized over the coming 10-20 years. 
 

but crazy things happens and one once in a lifetime, industry altering pandemic later, Disney very likely deprioritize theatrical overnight. 
premier access is likely just a short term method to get whatever money they can and move on. I do not think I they want to be in a position where they have to depend on break out hits to generate revenue.
 

They had a ridiculous run over the last decade that would be virtually impossible to replicate, and even then that run generated a pittance in revenue compared to parks and media networks. 

 

they’ve already had their DTC surpass theatricals best ever revenue year in the blink of an eye. 
 

pixar and wdas will begin to shift into long from television/episodic content, which likely is the future. 
 

theyre in the position to make this change very quickly and they are not going to ignore what streaming has done for their share price. Chapek would not Make it to the end of his contract if he did. 
 

we’re not really in a new era of just animation for Disney. We’re in a new era of Disney owned content production, distribution, and creation. It is disappointing to enthusiasts like as that data will likely never be released as box office data is. 

Edited March 9, 2021 by HouseOfTheSun

[charlie Jatinder]

20 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Wow when they said they were making a theatrical Avatar movie I didn’t realize it would release so soon.

is it what Avatar series is? well not too hot on it now.

[kkccoo]

22 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

we’re not really in a new era of just animation for Disney. We’re in a new era of Disney owned content production, distribution, and creation. It is disappointing to enthusiasts like as that data will likely never be released as box office data is.

I know I have to face reality. But I still feel sad that movie watching has been changed forever. I will definitely miss enjoying movies with friends and following box office afterwards.  I am so easy to get abstracted when watching movies at home.

 

One of my best movies watching experience in theater is watching Frozen when I was sitting among a group of children. They were singing along with the movie. I was so thrilled by both the movie and their joy. 

 

 

[Joyous Legion]

44 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

is it what Avatar series is? well not too hot on it now.

Just joking about some similarities. Avatar executes much better imo.    
 

Though hardly fair comparison with like 20 hours of runtime vs 2. Maybe I would have like Raya better as a series.

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, kkccoo said:

 

One of my best movies watching experience in theater is watching Frozen when I was sitting among a group of children. They were singing along with the movie. I was so thrilled by both the movie and their joy. 

While watching Frozen 2 with majorly kids with their moms, they weren't singing along, but were very vocal on how funny olaf is and how good Elsa is looking. Thankfully no one cried.

Edited March 9, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[kkccoo]

26 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

While watching Frozen 2 with majorly kids with their moms, they weren't singing along, but were very vocal on how funny olaf is and how good Elsa is looking. Thankfully no one cried.

Frozen I mean Frozen 1. I don't want to talk about Frozen 2. 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

3 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

Just joking about some similarities. Avatar executes much better imo.    
 

Though hardly fair comparison with like 20 hours of runtime vs 2. Maybe I would have like Raya better as a series.

Raya is what Avatar and Korra would cover in a season. 

 

As far as the shift in priorities there's no denying Disney+ exclusive content will be as important as theatrical releases but atm Pixar and WDAS are only making Disney+ content to supplement their theatrical release. The real shift will be when instead of announcing a bunch of original films for theatrical release it will be Disney+ original shows or movies.

 

[Jamiem]

 

 

Some insight into the films accuracy and the importance of representation for the South East Asian population 

 

 

 

[Fullbuster]

PART 1

 

Saying it's a flop means some here are disconnected from reality, this movie faced:

 

-Pandemics: many don't feel safe in theaters

-Theaters closed in many places

-Theaters only working at a reduced capacity when they're open

-Boycott from some theater chains in the US, Europe and Latin America

 

It's just too much to overcome for a new IP, I think it's fine given it's a new IP...Wonder Woman 1984 barely doid better despite being the sequel to a certified hit, being a known character and having no boycott against it.

 

PART 2

Mulan grossed $90m in 2 weeks via Premiere Access and with a mostly US release, if Raya managed to do better thanks to a much wider availability of Premiere Access (Europe, Latin America, Japan...) then it's gonna much bigger than what these BO numbers suggest.

 

PART 3

 

In this era you just can't use box office as a measure of success not only because of the pandemic but also because it's only 1 component over others....Considered as a masterpiece and loved by most people who saw it, it's gonna:

 

-Bring people towards Disney+ when it's free and for the years to come as it'll be a D+ exclusive

-Merchandising

-DVD/Blu-Ray

-Rights for TV channels?

-Potential for a sequel or spin-off as a Disney+ series

-Rights for a potential videogame

 

I know it's a box office forum but you must learn to assess things through the length of reality and what it's gonna be beyond its BO run.

I think it'll be alright.

-Maybe rights

 

 

[Barnack]

On 3/9/2021 at 3:57 AM, Fullbuster said:

-Bring people towards Disney+ when it's free and for the years to come as it'll be a D+ exclusive

-Merchandising

-DVD/Blu-Ray

-Rights for TV channels?

-Potential for a sequel or spin-off as a Disney+ series

-Rights for a potential videogame

Not sure it can be both a D+ exclusive for the years to come and be available in any other ways at the same time.

[Fullbuster]

7 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Not sure it can be both a D+ exclusive for the years to come and be available in any other ways at the same time.

 

We'll see how Disney sees things in the years to come. For now Mandalorian proves you right but who knows until when it's gonna last.

[charlie Jatinder]

Hoping for $4.75-5M 2nd weekend. 

[Morieris]

I just want to get more Funko Pops. Give me Namaari and her cat-thing.

 

 

[Krissykins]

15 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Hoping for $4.75-5M 2nd weekend. 

Seems low. 
 

BoxofficePro are predicting a 21% drop to $6.7m

 

Remember, more cinemas this weekend and absolutely zero new releases.