Raya and the Last Dragon | March 5, 2021 | Premier Access/Theater simultaneous release

[charlie Jatinder]

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Raya is way ahead T&J, which TBH is a surprise but is considerably smaller than Onward. Onward opened $40M with full market, though not sure how much of it was impacted by the COVID, if at all. Raya opening half of that with much worse COVID situation and 60% (?) open market, well lets see.

[TwoMisfits]

I know we have 2 big movie opens in some places next weekend, and NYC opens to 25%, except not their Regals...but I have a hard time seeing the Top 10 DOM more than double from this weekend.

 

This weekend was just shy of $20M Top 10 DOM...with NYC and a few more opens and vaccinated, I think I'm not seeing more than $40M to spread across Top 10 Dom (and I think it's likelier to be closer to $30M)...

 

It's not Pixar, so the Disney animated draw will be lower...and the fans can get it from their tv.

 

I mean, we'll see.  I said the market will definitely show signs of being somewhere to release a blockbuster if it can get to 2019's worst DOM Top 10 of $52M or so...that won't happen this weekend (I don't think, although who knows), but last weekend did start the slow move towards that number (then we need to get to more normal weekends, but heck, 1st, you gotta take the baby steps)...

 

If Raya made $9M (without Cinemark) and Chaos and TJ made $5M each, I would not be surprised...

 

PS - Boogie also opens, and that's the one Cinemark is touting and placing right now...

Edited March 1, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[charlie Jatinder]

13 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

If Raya made $9M (without Cinemark)

Ideally I would say T&J clearly bigger bet/IP at box office than Raya but folks on forum think Raya is having better buzz so I don't think it will open lower than T&J.

 

If the reason you think it will open lower is no release in Cinemark, don't consider that a big factor IMO. The AMC alone can give a $10M weekend if audience is there.

[MCKillswitch123]

23 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I know we have 2 big movie opens in some places next weekend, and NYC opens to 25%, except not their Regals...but I have a hard time seeing the Top 10 DOM more than double from this weekend.

 

This weekend was just shy of $20M Top 10 DOM...with NYC and a few more opens and vaccinated, I think I'm not seeing more than $40M to spread across Top 10 Dom (and I think it's likelier to be closer to $30M)...

 

It's not Pixar, so the Disney animated draw will be lower...and the fans can get it from their tv.

 

I mean, we'll see.  I said the market will definitely show signs of being somewhere to release a blockbuster if it can get to 2019's worst DOM Top 10 of $52M or so...that won't happen this weekend (I don't think, although who knows), but last weekend did start the slow move towards that number (then we need to get to more normal weekends, but heck, 1st, you gotta take the baby steps)...

 

If Raya made $9M (without Cinemark) and Chaos and TJ made $5M each, I would not be surprised...

 

PS - Boogie also opens, and that's the one Cinemark is touting and placing right now...

I really don't think the lack of a Cinemark release will really affect it bad enough to open under 10m. As Charlie said, the AMC's alone will cover the vast majority of the money. NYC reopening will also influence heavily.

 

And regarding the Disney and not Pixar argument, Disney Animation's success has been pretty much on par with Pixar's in the last couple of years, they're firmly estabilished as a brand at this point. Fans can get it from their TV... at a price of $30, not for free unlike HBO Max movies.

 

Tom & Jerry was based on a very famous brand, sure, but Disney Animation is an even bigger brand these days. And with NYC, I doubt it will be Cinemark to stall Raya from making less than T&J, nevermind 10m OW.

[Mau]

Cinepolis (the biggest chain in mexico) will not project Raya, ans the second largest (cinemex) is not open. Wow Raya will make $0 at the box office in Mexico

[Fullbuster]

4 minutes ago, Mau said:

Cinepolis (the biggest chain in mexico) will not project Raya, ans the second largest (cinemex) is not open. Wow Raya will make $0 at the box office in Mexico

 

They don't like money? They want to be bankrupt?

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, Mau said:

Cinepolis (the biggest chain in mexico) will not project Raya, ans the second largest (cinemex) is not open. Wow Raya will make $0 at the box office in Mexico

 

1 minute ago, Fullbuster said:

 

They don't like money? They want to be bankrupt?

Yeah, this is some really baffling stuff. Chains are struggling with covid and then they just turn down the biggest movie in a year?

[Menor the Destroyer]

Don't WDAS movies tend to have greater relative success in Cinemark vs AMC/Regal? I seem to recall a distribution like that for Frozen 2, at least. I think Cinemark not showing Raya could have a bigger impact than people think. 

[Fullbuster]

Where are the reviews? I thought it was coming now?

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

 

Yeah, this is some really baffling stuff. Chains are struggling with covid and then they just turn down the biggest movie in a year?

If they want future, they must resist. In fact, Regal strategy has been best IMO. Close the theaters till no regular theatrical releases. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

Where are the reviews? I thought it was coming now?

They are out, RT/Metacritic just tends to update irregularly at the beginning of the embargo. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Seeing the reviews makes this rocket way up on my anticipation scale, but I still don't want to pay that much for Premier Access nor go to theaters. Sadly I guess I will have to wait. 

Edited March 1, 2021 by Menor

[Fullbuster]

3 minutes ago, jatvision said:

If they want future, they must resist. In fact, Regal strategy has been best IMO. Close the theaters till no regular theatrical releases. 

 

With this kind of ideas they're gonna be bankrupt and pave the way for a 100% streaming future, it's like killing yourself in order to live.

[Fullbuster]

19 minutes ago, Menor said:

They are out, RT/Metacritic just tends to update irregularly at the beginning of the embargo. 

 

You're right, I checked on Twitter and started retweeting all these beautifully positive reviews, I'm gonna feed my followers with this whether they want it or not xD

Edited March 1, 2021 by Fullbuster

[Fullbuster]

95% RT

 

 

YES!!!!!

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

With this kind of ideas they're gonna be bankrupt and pave the way for a 100% streaming future, it's like killing yourself in order to live.

Don't know about Western developed markets, but if markets where piracy is rampant want to survive, theaters will have to straight-out boycott the films which don't respect the window.

[Legion Again]

15 minutes ago, jatvision said:

If they want future, they must resist. In fact, Regal strategy has been best IMO. Close the theaters till no regular theatrical releases. 

I think the regal strategy was pretty good too. But if you’re going to try to be open right now, should probably play the big movies instead of just sending that business to a rival chain 😛 

[Fullbuster]

97% WITH 14 ADDITIONAL REVIEWS

[ThomasNicole]

97% With 8.00 average and 40 reviews already

 

Excellent reception

[ThomasNicole]

18 minutes ago, jatvision said:

Don't know about Western developed markets, but if markets where piracy is rampant want to survive, theaters will have to straight-out boycott the films which don't respect the window.

The +90-day window is dead tho, it's just a fact.

 

Of course eventually the movies will go back to theatrical first with exclusivity, but only for 30-45 days before they put it somewhere else. Maybe 60 days for the very big movies.

 

They will have to accept that, it's probably the best balance for this war theaters V. streaming.