IT: CHAPTER TWO WEEKEND THREAD | 91M DOM, 94M OS, 185M WW | Read first post for rules

[lorddemaxus]

4 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

+20-22%

Hopefully this sticks (and I'm guessing you have accounted for weak evenings this time). Would make 90 mil a certainty.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Hopefully this sticks (and I'm guessing you have accounted for weak evenings this time). Would make 90 mil a certainty.

Its only day 1 that is tricky, after that its easy and smooth.

[RealLyre]

16 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

 

  

Not even remotely, but they'd get more breathing room at least, and that's important. I'm not even against the MCU's existence, or against movies making a billion dollars, I'm against the narrowing down of options and the chasing of safety at the expense of variety. A system in which [checks BOM] 500+ movies get theatrically released over 8 months and six of those movies own nearly 40% of all the domestic grosses, and all those movies are basically brand extensions, while more and more name filmmakers are forced to migrate to Netflix, is not a system that's remotely healthy, and this isn't just the business naturally being the business or whatever; Disney is absolutely taking advantage and setting the terms, and its practices actively harm the environment that surrounds it. 

tbf out of those 500 movies, only 79 were released in more than 2000 theaters in North America. but still doesn't change the fact that less than 10 blockbusters will have the most % of the yearly gross  

 

and did the thought of mid budget movies being made more for streaming than theater ever cross your mind? maybe that's the direction they should be going if audiences aren't willing to shill out a ticket price for them 🤷‍♀️

[TalismanRing]

42 minutes ago, filmlover said:

To be fair, those have been fading for a decade now (in part because of the direction the industry is moving, in part because the old school definition of a movie star doesn't really exist anymore - and most of the people who still fall under that definition are getting older with no one really to replace them).

A significant part was the decline in VHS & DVD rentals and sales which majorly propped up the mid sized feature - especially adult adult thrillers and dramas.   Streaming and Digital have taken up the slack though not akin to those  1980s -mid 2000s.  These mid sized releases were drastically declining  before the recent Disney dominance.

 

Add in the increasingly wider saturated releases and the attendant increase in marketing and it became far more expense to market than make films and the films weren't micro or small indie budgeted enough to offset that expense or lessen the risk.  A $1-20m film getting $10-25m in marketing probably has more of a chance at profit than a $50-60m film with $60-100m in marketing - since usually those smaller (non Horror) films usually have an initial limited release so studios can increase or scale back marketing dependent on how the movie is playing.  

 

To top it all off, Netflix has changed the way people watch film and how now many smaller and mid budget releases are  being released there  Studios adapting to Netflix isn't any different than the way they had to adapt to and challenge TV in the 1950s.  

 

Edited September 7, 2019 by TalismanRing

[TalismanRing]

21 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

tbf out of those 500 movies, only 79 were released in more than 2000 theaters in North America. but still doesn't change the fact that less than 10 blockbusters will have the most % of the yearly gross  

 

and did the thought of mid budget movies being made more for streaming than theater ever cross your mind? maybe that's the direction they should be going if audiences aren't willing to shill out a ticket price for them 🤷‍♀️

That and Disney didn't release a film in the first two months of the year (which was down b/c no BP correlation) and the last big movie (or just non Fox) release for them was TLK - 2 months ago and won't release for another month.    Theaters have been gagging for new releases for about 6 weeks before IT2 opened and all they got was a F&F spinoff.  Disney is not the reason Pika, Shazam, Pets2 or Godz2 under performed expectations.  Or why other studios didn't schedule and promote bigger or just better movies for 6 weeks in the summer.   Disney released X-Men 7 and it was still a dud b/c audiences weren't interested in the product and no magic Disney marketing or supposed strong arming of theaters changed  things - just as it didn't for Alice 2, Nutcracker, Tomorrowland, Lone Ranger. John Carter  etc.

[MikeQ]

48 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

+20-22%

This is from True Friday, right (as opposed to Friday including previews)? 

 

Peace,

Mike

 

 

 

 

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

+20-22%

Nice. 

1 hour ago, BoxOfficeZ said:

In retrospective 90m OW for a horror sequel is pretty good considering I predicted IT1 to open with 60m for its OW. 

Pretty good?

 

Um, for a horror sequel, it’s the best of all time. 

[a2k]

Hopefully true Fri to Sat bump is higher end of @Charlie's range (20-22%)

 

10.5

26.9

32.3 (+20%)

19.4 (-40%)

= 89.1

[YM!]

54 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Disney is not the reason Pika, Shazam, Pets2 or Godz2 under performed expectations

Whilst I agree Godzilla 2 and Pika were lost causes, I can see Pets 2 and Shazam doing better if they weren’t sandwiched between two huge Disney films that competed for their demographic.

[Krissykins]

25 minutes ago, a2k said:

Hopefully true Fri to Sat bump is higher end of @Charlie's range (20-22%)

 

10.5

26.9

32.3 (+20%)

19.4 (-40%)

= 89.1

+22% would be identical to It Chapter 1, so maybe the Sunday drop will be the same, -37.8%

[lorddemaxus]

1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

Disney is not the reason Pika, Shazam, Pets2 or Godz2 under performed expectations. 

Except for KOTM, I think those other movies would not have underperformed and one of those would have been a proper breakout.

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Except for KOTM, I think those other movies would not have underperformed and one of those would have been a proper breakout.

Better maybe but I doubt a breakout was in store for any and WB & Universal chose to schedule those movies where they did while ignoring Jan/Feb and leaving the last half of July and most of August gaping.   Shazam should have been a Feb or August release.   Pets 2 was hurt by Toy Story but not that much since other Illumination films did as well or better than nearby Pixar releases. There it was mostly a contest of quality of franchises and films  - between a sequel audiences wanted to see vs one not nearly as much.

[lorddemaxus]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Better maybe but I doubt a breakout was in store for any and WB & Universal chose to schedule those movies where they did while ignoring Jan/Feb and leaving the last half of July and most of August gaping.   Shazam should have been a Feb or August release.   Pets 2 was hurt by Toy Story but not that much since other Illumination films did as well or better than nearby Pixar releases. There it was mostly a contest of quality of franchises and films  - between a sequel audiences wanted to see vs one not nearly as much.

Shazam and The Lego Movie 2 should have swapped dates. The Lego Movie 2 could have done slightly better in April (I think Easter weekend would help a kids film more and has no direct competition either). Shazam would have also been the first superhero movie of the year with a Feb release date which would have seriously helped it.

[CJohn]

IT Chapter 2 is sort of not very good. I am not expecting great legs.

[YM!]

38 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Better maybe but I doubt a breakout was in store for any and WB & Universal chose to schedule those movies where they did while ignoring Jan/Feb and leaving the last half of July and most of August gaping.   Shazam should have been a Feb or August release.   Pets 2 was hurt by Toy Story but not that much since other Illumination films did as well or better than nearby Pixar releases. There it was mostly a contest of quality of franchises and films  - between a sequel audiences wanted to see vs one not nearly as much.

November also looked barren but could you blame for wanting to be hesitant to open something late July/August with the pattern of a mega Disney tentpole every two weeks.

[cookie]

51 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Shazam and The Lego Movie 2 should have swapped dates. The Lego Movie 2 could have done slightly better in April (I think Easter weekend would help a kids film more and has no direct competition either). Shazam would have also been the first superhero movie of the year with a Feb release date which would have seriously helped it.

It also would've allowed Lego more distance from the family overload in December, which I do think affected it a little bit.

[TalismanRing]

31 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

November also looked barren but could you blame for wanting to be hesitant to open something late July/August with the pattern of a mega Disney tentpole every two weeks.

But they didn't open anything there and the schedule didn't change much a year out.   We were all bitching about how barren the schedule was for those 6 weeks  and how overloaded June was last year.  This wasn't rocket science - they just blew it.

[LOGAN'sLuckyRun]

Kinda sucks that nearly every WB movie has come in under estimates/predictions. What are they doing wrong? (Besides not being Disney)

[cookie]

2 minutes ago, LOGAN'sLuckyRun said:

Kinda sucks that nearly every WB movie has come in under estimates/predictions. What are they doing wrong? (Besides not being Disney)

They've been kinda weaksauce on the marketing so far this year tbh (outside of Joker)

Edited September 7, 2019 by cookie

[LOGAN'sLuckyRun]

3 minutes ago, cookie said:

They've been kinda weaksauce on the marketing so far this year tbh (outside of Joker)

Could be. When The Lego Movie 2 came out I've seen many that didn't even know it had been released. But I heard that IT 2 had a lot of promotional partners but I never saw anything in stores and whatnot.

Edited September 7, 2019 by LOGAN'sLuckyRun