IT: CHAPTER TWO WEEKEND THREAD | 91M DOM, 94M OS, 185M WW | Read first post for rules

[Cap]

35 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

that would be a fantastic OW for JOKER but why the horrible legs? 

The audience excitement feels very skewed toward older men, who tend to rush out, and help the CBMs have such frontloaded opening weekends.  With the subject matter -- even with the 'see for yourself "controversial" hype -- I don't see older women coming out for it to help with the legs.

 

It might have Oscar Buzz, but the Oscars are in February/March and most of the "GA" doesn't care about the Festival and Campaign Grind.  If Phoenix gets nominated, they can easily watch it on Demand or on Streaming a couple weeks before the big show.

 

AND, I think it's a bit of a Pika Pika Redux.  The demographics of the board tend to lean into the target audience for Joker.  There might be a false sense of hype going on. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Feeling very confident about 33 True Friday.

[Alli]

8M OW for The Goldfinch? not happening. at least 15M

[Eric Duncan]

Just now, Alli said:

8M OW for The Goldfinch? not happening. at least 15M

Girl, just let it die. WB's not even giving it Thursday previews.

[Legion Again]

Just now, Charlie Jatinder said:

Feeling very confident about 33 True Friday.

This would be wild.

[Alex SciChannel]

3 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Feeling very confident about 33 True Friday.

HOLY SHIT!!!

 

I almost choked on my asophagus reading this thus sending me into shock. I’m typing this in the ER right now.

[DAJK]

6 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Feeling very confident about 33 True Friday.

That would put 100 at a very real possibility (probability?)

[YLF]

If IT 2 has a 33 true Friday what are the OW projections now?

[Eric Duncan]

With a 33 True Friday, if the movie follows the first IT, that would be at about 106.4M. I don't expect it to hold as well, but 100M is much more likely than I thought earlier this morning.

[TMP]

10 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

The audience excitement feels very skewed toward older men, who tend to rush out, and help the CBMs have such frontloaded opening weekends.  With the subject matter -- even with the 'see for yourself "controversial" hype -- I don't see older women coming out for it to help with the legs.

 

It might have Oscar Buzz, but the Oscars are in February/March and most of the "GA" doesn't care about the Festival and Campaign Grind.  If Phoenix gets nominated, they can easily watch it on Demand or on Streaming a couple weeks before the big show.

 

AND, I think it's a bit of a Pika Pika Redux.  The demographics of the board tend to lean into the target audience for Joker.  There might be a false sense of hype going on. 

I think it'll skew older than normal comic book movies if only because WB is very clearly selling it as a drama as opposed to an action film, which I think will help legs. Or maybe it'll have terrible WoM because of a lack of action. Who knows!

[lorddemaxus]

16 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

 

The audience excitement feels very skewed toward older men, who tend to rush out,

This isn't true. We have films like OUTAIH being carried by older men in terms of legs. And films like The Mule (I know it also had christmas), Green Book, and Rocketman wouldn't have had such good legs if older men didn't watch them. If anything, what you said is true for younger men. And Oscar buzz and talk from festival certainly helps a film like this like it did with A Star is Born last year. That film wouldn't have made as nearly as much as it did if it wasn't for the Oscar and festival buzz.

 

Also what you said about Pika Pika probably won't happen here considering the fact that the second trailer tanked quite a bit in views compared to the first while second Joker trailer really isn't seeming to.

Edited September 6, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[a2k]

44 would be a great full Friday compared to previews. Would be 4.2x the previews compared to 3.7x for IT1.

 

10.5

33.5

39.5 (+18%) // IT1 was +22%

22.9 (-42%) // IT1 was -38%

= 106.4 (10.1x) // IT1 was 9.1x

 

EDIT: What it would need for 101 with 44 OD

 

10.5

33.5

36.9 (+10%)

20.2 (-45%)

= 101.1

Edited September 6, 2019 by a2k

[Legion Again]

Deadline copying Charlie’s notes 😛  

 

https://deadline.com/2019/09/it-chapter-two-opening-weekend-box-office-birds-of-prey-teaser-1202713529/

[Legion Again]

Very strange internal multi If this holds. Maybe the 3 hour runtime depresses Thursday previews? 

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Very strange internal multi If this holds. Maybe the 3 hour runtime depresses Thursday previews? 

Or IT 1 was anomaly when it comes to previews but even Nun ratio shall see it just around 32.

4 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Deadline copying Charlie’s notes 😛  

 

https://deadline.com/2019/09/it-chapter-two-opening-weekend-box-office-birds-of-prey-teaser-1202713529/

me being conservative is a thing. huh. bumping it to 34. its easily out selling IT at this moment, giving for 2 years of pre-sale loading shall come around 34-35.

Edited September 6, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[Eric Duncan]

https://deadline.com/2019/09/it-chapter-two-opening-weekend-box-office-birds-of-prey-teaser-1202713529/

 

Quote

3rd Update Friday, Midday: New Line’s It Chapter Two is headed for the second-best horror film and September opening of all-time with an estimated $100M-$102M, behind the previous chapter’s all-time $123.4M record in both categories. Even if this film falls apart and does $90M+, man, that is pretty awesome for the start of the fall B.O. season, and still proves that people will come out for an event film in the post Labor Day period. Among R-rated film openings, It Chapter Two looks to be fourth behind Deadpool ($132.4M), Deadpool 2 ($125.5M) and It.

 

It Chapter Two is seeing an opening day of $44M (including those $10.5M previews last night), which, again, makes it the second best opening day for both a horror film and September after It‘s $50.4M.

 

They're on to us.  

[Eric Duncan]

btw to add into the Joker legs debate, feel like SS/JL legs are a certainty IMHO. There will be fans, but I feel like a lot of the darker/controversial stuff should still cause at least some divisiveness. If Zombieland or Gemini Man also manage to land, that also cuts into the film's main audience.

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, Eric! said:

btw to add into the Joker legs debate, feel like SS/JL legs are a certainty IMHO. There will be fans, but I feel like a lot of the darker/controversial stuff should still cause at least some divisiveness. If Zombieland or Gemini Man also manage to land, that also cuts into the film's main audience.

Us got a 2.46x multi. I expect around that considering that that movie was pretty hyped and ended up being a bit divisive.

[TMP]

2 minutes ago, Eric! said:

btw to add into the Joker legs debate, feel like SS/JL legs are a certainty IMHO. There will be fans, but I feel like a lot of the darker/controversial stuff should still cause at least some divisiveness. If Zombieland or Gemini Man also manage to land, that also cuts into the film's main audience.

Imma 🅱️ real chief... I love big willard style as much as the next guy, but Gemini Man smells like bomb to me

[Eric Duncan]

Just now, TMP said:

Imma 🅱️ real chief... I love big willard style as much as the next guy, but Gemini Man smells like bomb to me

I do too, but ya never know.