Weekend Thread: Estimates - Mal2 36, Jokah 29.2, Zombi2 26.7, Addams 16, Gemini 8.5 | Parasite 1.2 (37.6K), Lighthouse 420K (52K), Jojo 350K (70K avg)

[cdsacken]

Just now, TalismanRing said:

Hmmm...

 

Heading into the launch session, the industry was seeing a $115M-$125M overseas start for the Angelina Jolie sequel. The result is above the original’s 2014 opening of $109M in like-for-like markets and at today’s rates — just a roughly 7% bump... - Deadline

 

Hope I'm wrong and it does 600 or something. US numbers are bad. 

[TalismanRing]

Just now, cdsacken said:

Hope I'm wrong and it does 600 or something. US numbers are bad. 

Probably not $600m, but $500m is quite possible, even $550m.

 

Even with a $100m+ US. drop if it does 75% of O/S of the first it makes $387.825 which would mean near $500m.  But as of this w/e it's slightly ahead in $s in like for like markets

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

Hustlers clears $100M and hits a 3x multiplier!

[cdsacken]

7 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Probably not $600m, but $500m is quite possible, even $550m.

 

Even with a $100m+ US. drop if it does 75% of O/S of the first it makes $387.825 which would mean near $500m.  But as of this w/e it's slightly ahead in $s in like for like markets

I'm worried about legs but hoping it does ok. Personally I don't for failure at all. The fans love it so I hope it does well. My 450 is more respective of the domestic situation.I agree that overseas is doing solid. Anything above 500 would be solid.

[JB33]

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

Numbers are about what I expected.

 

Joker

Far less than I expected. It's odd, really, but I guess another huge chunk of demand was burnt off after that excellent 2nd weekend hold, not to mention the killer weekdays. Still, I pegged this for a photo finish with Maleficent this weekend, so slightly disappointed.

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

There Is a rumor that police stormed a screening of Joker in Greece and escorted all the underaged children out of the cinema and some parents were arrested and charged with child negligence.The Greek Police has denied this but this is the #1 talk on SM and apparently there is proof.

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

There Is a rumor that police stormed a screening of Joker in Greece and escorted all the underaged children out of the cinema and some parents were arrested and charged with child negligence.The Greek Police has denied this but this is the #1 talk on SM and apparently there is proof.

They have strict age restrictions there don't they?   (unlike the bullshit Rated R in the U.S. where you can take your toddler to a slasher flick) 

[cdsacken]

6 minutes ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

There Is a rumor that police stormed a screening of Joker in Greece and escorted all the underaged children out of the cinema and some parents were arrested and charged with child negligence.The Greek Police has denied this but this is the #1 talk on SM and apparently there is proof.

That definitely would be child neglect. Not a movie for kids

 

Arresting though? Not even worth a ticket.

Edited October 20, 2019 by cdsacken

[Maxmoser3]

Maleficent 2 will probably do sub $100 million. It’s domestic total sucks. But hey here’s a pic to cool ya guys down 🤪

 

but hey as for the Joker it’s coming close to The Matrix Reloaded’s $742 million worldwide! That’s a crazy success story for 2019 overall and I think that would be a milestone.

 

Zombieland 2’s debut is really good for an even longer wait time than even what Maleficent  was! Hopefully legs will be good and should be a nice profit for Sony! 

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

2 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

That definitely would be child neglect. Not a movie for kids

 

Arresting though? Not even worth a ticket.

I think the cinema is more to blame here.The film does convey a lot of messages and maybe the parents saw it as an opportunity to taught their kids something.

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

They have strict age restrictions there don't they?   (unlike the bullshit Rated R in the U.S. where you can take your toddler to a slasher flick) 

IDK about strict.I remember how I used to always get to some R rated movies.And I didn't have to sneak in.Just casually ask the cashier for a ticket.

[Eric S'ennui]

4 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

Maleficent 2 will probably do sub $100 million. 

Uh...no?

[cookie]

2 hours ago, Alli said:

Why should we stop calling out the critics? Sometimes they are simply wrong....on both directions. So many crap movies that critics hyped up lately.

 

Especially since a RT critic can be basically everybody these days

Who gets to decide whether the critics are right or wrong about something?

 

In the case of Gemini Man, the box office would alone suggest audience response isn't overly enthusiastic either. So who is right here?

Edited October 20, 2019 by cookie

[Alli]

2 minutes ago, cookie said:

 

 

In the case of Gemini Man, the box office would alone suggest audience response isn't overly enthusiastic either. So who is right here?

True in most cases, but there are times when critics destroy a movie before it has the chance of reaching its BO potential

Edited October 20, 2019 by Alli

[Krissykins]

28 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Hustlers clears $100M and hits a 3x multiplier!

Excellent run. 

[a2k]

29 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

Numbers are about what I expected.

 

Joker

Far less than I expected. It's odd, really, but I guess another huge chunk of demand was burnt off after that excellent 2nd weekend hold, not to mention the killer weekdays. Still, I pegged this for a photo finish with Maleficent this weekend, so slightly disappointed.

JOKER and MAL2 could swap next weekend:

42% drop gives JOKER 17

53% drop gives MAL2 17

 

MAL1 dropped 51% in 2014. Granted that was summer but MAL2 will suffer from sequelitis and had more preview-frontloading too. Don't think MAL2 can do much better than low-50%.

[Maxmoser3]

14 minutes ago, Eric Addams said:

Uh...no?

Maybe close. But $80-$90 million more likely. Which is already rough...  but Angie isn’t in any hurt, and Disney isn’t either. 

[TalismanRing]

Just now, Alli said:

True in most cases, but there are times when critics destroy  movie before it has the chance of reaching its BO potential

The Goldfinch, perhaps? 

 

Criticism can help push some people over the fence (to see or skip) but it by far holds the most weight at the B.O. for smaller budgeted Indie films that don't have money for the marketing push or the usual genre hooks or established IP. 

 

But Gemini Man is not that kind of film.   It a sci-fi action film starring  Will Smith.  It's not as if he had a bunch of critically acclaimed films when he was the top B.O. superstar.  

 

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/celebrity/will_smith

 

The marketing/concept etc just didn't hook the audience enough to show up the first w/e en mass and WOM from those that saw it didn't give it legs after.

 

 

[Maxmoser3]

39 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Hustlers clears $100M and hits a 3x multiplier!

That’s fantastic for JLo and STX! 

[Alli]

7 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

 

Criticism can help push some people over the fence (to see or skip) but it by far holds the most weight at the B.O. for smaller budgeted Indie films that don't have money for the marketing push or the usual genre hooks or established IP. 

 

But Gemini Man is not that kind of film.   It a sci-fi action film starring  Will Smith.  It's not as if he had a bunch of critically acclaimed films when he was the top B.O. superstar.  

 

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/celebrity/will_smith

 

The marketing/concept etc just didn't hook the audience enough to show up the first w/e en mass and WOM from those that saw it didn't give it legs after.

 

 

Agreed about Gemini Man.

 

Similarly, critics can help a movie OW. They hyped up Ad Astra so much that it got a decent OW, but legs are bad. Scf-fi with A list Brad Pitt should do better than 50M, but the public is rightfully rejecting it

[cdsacken]

22 minutes ago, a2k said:

JOKER and MAL2 could swap next weekend:

42% drop gives JOKER 17

53% drop gives MAL2 17

 

MAL1 dropped 51% in 2014. Granted that was summer but MAL2 will suffer from sequelitis and had more preview-frontloading too. Don't think MAL2 can do much better than low-50%.

I definitely think Joker holds well next week. Not much is coming out.