Monday (11/25) Thread: Frozen II 12.77

[cdsacken]

I enjoy the banter and folks on here more than the data itself. Like the data too, math nerd big time. Probably sounds ridiculous but if I'm stressed out like crazy I will calculate several things like (payoff time for student loans, mortgage with extra payments) while driving. Randomly it's relaxing. Ranking and prioritizing payoff for debt shouldn't really be enjoyable lol.

[sfran43]

 

[StarWarsMemer]

4 hours ago, a2k said:

Frozen, 130.3 ow

 

13.3 Monday

20.0 (+50%)

19.0 (-5%)

12.8 (-32.5%)

= 65.1 // 195.4 week 1

 

29.4 (+130%)

29.1

18.0 (-38%)

= 76.5 (-41%) // 271.9 10-day

 

271.9 + 76.5*2.5 = 463 dom (3.56x)

 

Edit: Using 140% Fri bump

 

30.7 (+140%)

30.4

18.9 (-38%)

= 80.0 (-38.5%) // 275.4 10-day

 

275.4 + 80.0*2.5 = 475.5 dom (3.65x)

Post-second weekend multiplier should be higher with Christmas. 

Here are the ratios of post-second weeekend to the second weekend of recent animated films released in November:

The Grinch: 3.72× ($573M)

Ralph Breaks the Internet: 3.21× ($532M)

Coco: 3.62× ($564.8M)

I don't believe F2 will reach any of those multipliers, but 2.5 is way too low. 

[sfran43]

 

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, StarWarsMemer said:

Post-second weekend multiplier should be higher with Christmas. 

Here are the ratios of post-second weeekend to the second weekend of recent animated films released in November:

The Grinch: 3.72× ($573M)

Ralph Breaks the Internet: 3.21× ($532M)

Coco: 3.62× ($564.8M)

I don't believe F2 will reach any of those multipliers, but 2.5 is way too low. 

Grinch released a week sooner. Looked at post Thanksgiving weekend which was 2.95x, not post 2nd weekend. Didn't check others.

 

The Star which released like Frozen, Friday od pre-Thanksgiving weekend, had 6.93 2nd weekend and added 2.58x the 2nd weekend more as a non-sequel doing tiny numbers in comparison.

 

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Week
Nov 17, 2017	6	$9,812,674		2,837	$3,459	$9,812,674	1
Nov 24, 2017	7	$6,930,919	-29%	2,837	$2,443	$22,088,115	2
Dec 1, 2017	9	$4,078,423	-41%	2,822	$1,445	$27,358,076	3
Dec 8, 2017	8	$3,707,087	-9%	2,976	$1,246	$32,311,133	4
Dec 15, 2017	11	$1,730,696	-53%	1,936	$894	$35,330,916	5
Dec 22, 2017	13	$1,264,241	-27%	1,106	$1,143	$38,356,166	6
Dec 29, 2017	25	$484,896	-62%	661	$734	$39,963,949	7
Jan 5, 2018	30	$140,805	-71%	268	$525	$40,448,404	8
Jan 12, 2018	33	$105,721	-25%	160	$661	$40,587,546	9
Jan 19, 2018	34	$73,445	-31%	132	$556	$40,715,377	10
Jan 26, 2018	39	$52,898	-28%	97	$545	$40,785,511	11
Feb 2, 2018	46	$28,814	-46%	72	$400	$40,826,384	12
Feb 9, 2018	55	$14,726	-49%	50	$295	$40,847,995	13

Edited November 26, 2019 by a2k

[cdsacken]

24 minutes ago, a2k said:

Grinch released a week sooner. Looked at post Thanksgiving weekend which was 2.95x, not post 2nd weekend. Didn't check others.

 

The Star which released like Frozen, Friday od pre-Thanksgiving weekend, had 6.93 2nd weekend and added 2.58x the 2nd weekend more as a non-sequel doing tiny numbers in comparison.

 

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Week
Nov 17, 2017	6	$9,812,674		2,837	$3,459	$9,812,674	1
Nov 24, 2017	7	$6,930,919	-29%	2,837	$2,443	$22,088,115	2
Dec 1, 2017	9	$4,078,423	-41%	2,822	$1,445	$27,358,076	3
Dec 8, 2017	8	$3,707,087	-9%	2,976	$1,246	$32,311,133	4
Dec 15, 2017	11	$1,730,696	-53%	1,936	$894	$35,330,916	5
Dec 22, 2017	13	$1,264,241	-27%	1,106	$1,143	$38,356,166	6
Dec 29, 2017	25	$484,896	-62%	661	$734	$39,963,949	7
Jan 5, 2018	30	$140,805	-71%	268	$525	$40,448,404	8
Jan 12, 2018	33	$105,721	-25%	160	$661	$40,587,546	9
Jan 19, 2018	34	$73,445	-31%	132	$556	$40,715,377	10
Jan 26, 2018	39	$52,898	-28%	97	$545	$40,785,511	11
Feb 2, 2018	46	$28,814	-46%	72	$400	$40,826,384	12
Feb 9, 2018	55	$14,726	-49%	50	$295	$40,847,995	13

The star sucked though. Not a fair comparison. Mediocre movie, terrible reviews and 70% audience rating.

 

Moved to the $1 pound tickets in UK so quickly. It was great 

 

Edited November 26, 2019 by cdsacken

[a2k]

4 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

The star sucked though. Not a fair comparison. Mediocre movie, terrible reviews and 70% audience rating.

it did 4.1x multi (no previews reported). that's like frozen doing 8.5 + 121.75*4.1 = 508 dom.

and that 4.1x after adding "only" 2.58x the 2nd weekend / thanksgiving FSS to it's run.

if frozen can add 2.5x+ the 2nd weekend to it's run it will get to 3.8-3.9x multi off ow-previews (470-485 after adding in previews).

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, a2k said:

it did 4.1x multi (no previews reported). that's like frozen doing 8.5 + 121.75*4.1 = 508 dom.

and that 4.1x after adding "only" 2.58x the 2nd weekend / thanksgiving FSS to it's run.

if frozen can add 2.5x+ the 2nd weekend to it's run it will get to 3.8-3.9x multi off ow-previews (470-485 after adding in previews).

Well in all fairness often it seems like animated films that do horrific openings have great multipliers.

[sfran43]

 

[a2k]

14 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Well in all fairness often it seems like animated films that do horrific openings have great multipliers.

the point is that despite contrasting reception it's % holds are more than a fair optimistic comp for frozen2 (once sequelitis is accounted for) as it legged it very well with 4.1x and released in the same period.

[keysersoze123]

F2 will drop big weekend after Thanksgiving. Even 1st movie dropped 53% and this one will drop more bcos its bigger and would have burned demand. That is why even @a2k projections are too aggressive. At least wait for that weekend before projecting crazy numbers. Plus 2 following weekends there are J2 and SW9 releasing and taking away tons of screens. It wont have anything like 1st movie's ridiculous run. Plus I dont think reception is anywhere close.

[titanic2187]

When they will announce the theater count for thanksgiving week?

[narniadis]

About to make my own determination of wom since my kids and I are here at the theater.... I love my cinemark $3.25 for discount Tuesday cant beat it. 5 tickets for less than $20. 

Hands down worth not driving to the major cities for better seats. 

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, narniadis said:

About to make my own determination of wom since my kids and I are here at the theater.... I love my cinemark $3.25 for discount Tuesday cant beat it. 5 tickets for less than $20. 

Hands down worth not driving to the major cities for better seats. 

Dang, I'd love that, too...our cheap Tuesdays at up to $5.75 at our Cinemark:(...

[AndyK]

13 minutes ago, narniadis said:

About to make my own determination of wom since my kids and I are here at the theater.... I love my cinemark $3.25 for discount Tuesday cant beat it. 5 tickets for less than $20. 

Hands down worth not driving to the major cities for better seats. 

Enjoy ☺️

[a2k]

Potter1 also had Friday od before Thanksgiving. Fell 36% in the 2nd weekend from non-preview OW and added just 2.27x the 2nd weekend to it's cume on it's way to 3.52x overall multiplier. Potters as such were front-loaded but 3.52x multi is realistic for Frozen2 (450+ dom) and is a good comp to check if it's on track to hit that milestone.

 

Nov 23, 2001

1

$57,487,755

-36%

3,672

$15,656

$186,978,513

2

 

So we have 2 movies (sure there must be more), The Star and Potter1, that opened like Frozen2 (Friday od before Thanksgiving) and share a similar demo:

The Star added 2.58x the 2nd weekend more on it's way to 4.16x multi.

Potter1 added 2.27x the 2nd weekend more on it's way to a 3.52x multi.

 

[sfran43]

 

[Pinacolada]

10 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Frozen 2	13.25
Ford v Ferrari	1.78
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood	1.52
21 Bridges	0.90
Playing with Fire	0.62
Midway	0.60
Last Christmas	0.40
The Good Liar	0.40
Charlie's Angels	0.39
Joker	0.38
Harriet	0.36
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil	0.30
Doctor Sleep	0.26
Jojo Rabbit	0.23
Parasite	0.17

 

 

Special: FRIENDSGIVING $195k // $450k (2 Days)

That would be a solid week to week drop for Ford v Ferrari

[kitik]

It's a holiday week, so be careful not to forget to post your top 10 upcoming movies of the next 12 months over in the most anticipated films thread:

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/667-box-office-theorys-most-anticipated-films/page/387/#comments

[sfran43]