Monday (11/25) Thread: Frozen II 12.77

[Eric Duncan]

https://deadline.com/2019/11/frozen-2-knives-out-queen-slim-thanksgiving-box-office-1202795080/

 

Quote

Let’s start with the build of it all: The pic’s official weekend came in at $130.2M, which as we’ve been sayin’ is the best animated pic launch ever in November. Today, with 41% of K-12 schools out and 14% of colleges, I understand Monday will deliver around $16M for the sequel directed by Jennifer Lee- and Chris Buck.

 

[Eric Duncan]

1 minute ago, Jedi Jat said:

13.5-14. let's see if evening walk ups change it, matinees were as expected in morning. 

🤔

[JB33]

I'd be inclined to go with @Jedi Jat. I'm rather confused because most comps point to a 63 or 64% drop today, which gives you that 13.5-14 figure. Are more schools out today than normal on this day during other years?

Edited November 26, 2019 by JB33

[PKMLover]

13.5-14 is good or bad???

[JB33]

6 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

13.5-14 is good or bad???

Standard. 

[cdsacken]

It's good after good hold. Gimme 14.5

[Menor the Destroyer]

Not sure what the Tuesday bump would be. Hopefully it can do 50%+. 

[narniadis]

Yeah the Deadline number doesnt make sense statistically speaking. Tuesday should definitely be bigger. Thinking 20-21 or so. 

[keysersoze123]

MTC1 is dropping around 64-65% range. MTC2 is holding better but based on previous track, MTC1 seem more representative. Of course it does not take into account how many kids tickets get sold. Around low 20's % was for tickets sold before noon as well, I am assuming those are family tickets. So I cannot predict a number but it does like Charlie will be closer than Deadline(DUH).

[charlie Jatinder]

13.3

[charlie Jatinder]

Frozen 2	13.25
Ford v Ferrari	1.78
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood	1.52
21 Bridges	0.90
Playing with Fire	0.62
Midway	0.60
Last Christmas	0.40
The Good Liar	0.40
Charlie's Angels	0.39
Joker	0.38
Harriet	0.36
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil	0.30
Doctor Sleep	0.26
Jojo Rabbit	0.23
Parasite	0.17

 

 

Special: FRIENDSGIVING $195k // $450k (2 Days)

Edited November 26, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[JB33]

47 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Frozen 2	13.25
Ford v Ferrari	1.78
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood	1.52
21 Bridges	0.90
Playing with Fire	0.62
Midway	0.60
Last Christmas	0.40
The Good Liar	0.40
Charlie's Angels	0.39
Joker	0.38
Harriet	0.36
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil	0.30
Doctor Sleep	0.26
Jojo Rabbit	0.23
Parasite	0.17

 

 

Special: FRIENDSGIVING $195k // $450k (2 Days)

Monday is lower than I anticipated, which means I feel an even bigger Tuesday bump than I first predicted. Something like $20.5M (+55%).

[a2k]

Frozen, 130.3 ow

 

13.3 Monday

20.0 (+50%)

19.0 (-5%)

12.8 (-32.5%)

= 65.1 // 195.4 week 1

 

29.4 (+130%)

29.1

18.0 (-38%)

= 76.5 (-41%) // 271.9 10-day

 

271.9 + 76.5*2.5 = 463 dom (3.56x)

 

Edit: Using 140% Fri bump

 

30.7 (+140%)

30.4

18.9 (-38%)

= 80.0 (-38.5%) // 275.4 10-day

 

275.4 + 80.0*2.5 = 475.5 dom (3.65x)

Edited November 26, 2019 by a2k

[PKMLover]

7 minutes ago, a2k said:

Frozen, 130.3 ow

 

13.3 Monday

20.0 (+50%)

19.0 (-5%)

12.8 (-32.5%)

= 65.1 // 195.4 week 1

 

29.4 (+130%)

29.1

18.0 (-38%)

= 76.5 (-41%) // 271.9 10-day

 

271.9 + 76.5*2.5 = 463 dom (3.56x)

 

41% is harsh drop. 

[a2k]

Grinch last year. Keep in mind this was it's 2nd Mon-Thu and 3rd weekend opposed to 1st Mon-Thu and 2nd weekend for Frozen2. So Frozen2's drop will be hampered by previews in the previous weekend and front-loading in initial days in general. Also it's a sequel unlike Grinch.

 

Tue bumps have been getting better and that shouldn't be out of reach though

 

Nov 19, 2018	2	$4,660,185	-63%	4,141	$1,125	$131,623,595	11
Nov 20, 2018	2	$6,800,655	+46%	4,141	$1,642	$138,424,250	12
Nov 21, 2018	3	$6,974,765	+3%	3,960	$1,761	$145,399,015	13
Nov 22, 2018	4	$4,703,755	-33%	3,960	$1,188	$150,102,770	14
Nov 23, 2018	4	$11,590,955	+146%	3,960	$2,927	$161,693,725	15
Nov 24, 2018	3	$11,632,050	n/c	3,960	$2,937	$173,325,775	16
Nov 25, 2018	3	$7,169,215	-38%	3,960	$1,810	$180,494,990	17

 

The Star, 2017 in it's 1st week like Frozen2.

Nov 17, 2017	6	$2,770,595		2,837	$977	$2,770,595	1
Nov 18, 2017	6	$4,141,840	+49%	2,837	$1,460	$6,912,435	2
Nov 19, 2017	6	$2,900,239	-30%	2,837	$1,022	$9,812,674	3
Nov 20, 2017	6	$1,106,257	-62%	2,837	$390	$10,918,931	4
Nov 21, 2017	6	$1,602,057	+45%	2,837	$565	$12,520,988	5
Nov 22, 2017	7	$1,639,117	+2%	2,837	$578	$14,160,105	6
Nov 23, 2017	7	$997,091	-39%	2,837	$351	$15,157,196	7
Nov 24, 2017	7	$2,786,249	+179%	2,837	$982	$17,943,445	8
Nov 25, 2017	7	$2,573,079	-8%	2,837	$907	$20,516,524	9
Nov 26, 2017	7	$1,571,591	-39%	2,837	$554	$22,088,115	10

 

The 2nd Fri bump is great but Thu was also harsher compared to Grinch.

 

Edited November 26, 2019 by a2k

[charlie Jatinder]

@a2k

 

130.3

13.3

21

22 (Grinch was obviously affected by Ralph. Catching Fire's Wednesday was +69% Monday, FB 1 +62%)

15.8 // 202

 

36

36

22 // 296

 

94 * 2.5 : 235

 

531

 

 

Edited November 26, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[SchumacherFTW]

I call it matching OD on black Friday 👀

[a2k]

1 minute ago, Jedi Jat said:

@a2k

 

130.3

13.3

20

22.5 (Grinch was obviously affected by Ralph. Catching Fire's Wednesday was +69% Monday)

15.8 // 202

 

36

36

22 // 296

 

94 * 2.5 : 235

 

531

 

 

Oh, very good point about Grinch and Ralph. Didn't think about it. 

(Would go a little higher on Thu drop than 30% if Wed jumps 10%.)

 

 

[a2k]

The Good Liar should be 14.5+ by Sunday and head towards 20 total. Disappointing number but face saving legs.

UK started at 3.2 and could do 10-15 total there am guessing.

[baumer]

I have been away from the box office for about 6 months now.  I just haven't been following it as close as I used to.  It's kind of nice to follow the film industry without analyzing the minutai of the box office.  It's nice not getting upset or "concerned" when a movie doesn't meet or exceed some ridiculous expectation that this site bestows upon it.  Frozen is a straight up beast both domestic and internationally and it's going to make a pile of money.  Just tangentially reading the comments from some of you here, I get the sense of some small disappointment because it didn't open to 132 million instead of 130, or that it didn't do more internationally or that it "only" made 13 million on it's first Monday.  I think some of you need to give your head a shake.  Not only is this film going to be a huge money maker, both domestic and internationally, it's also going to be a huge seller for merchandise and such.  I know we don't talk all that much about this kind of stuff but Frozen is going to be a merch monster.  But forget about the merch, this is going to be a huge money maker for Disney.  Again, being away from the box office for a while, and with mojo being a piece of shit now, I don't have the budget in front of me, but I'm assuming it's about 175-200 million.  So if this makes 1.2-1.4 billion, it's a massive success.  Following the box office of films like this is what makes following the box office fun to track.