The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter

[PlatnumRoyce]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

At the very least: Discussions Stop Being Fun.

Yeah, that's a great point. 

[WittyUsername]

Just now, Hypercortical said:

yes you did

No no I didn’t. I brought up Avengers to make a point about how it shouldn’t matter whether or not audiences see this as a “true” Captain Marvel sequel, as long as the character plays a major role. 

 

1 minute ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

You should have just said that then because the two projects aren't comparable in any way. Characters that have had their own individual movies teaming up in one movie to stop the invasion of earth in a first of its type film is not remotely the same as a character from a film whose box office was boosted by its proximity to another movie teaming up with characters from two Disney Plus streaming series, one of which is the least seen of it's sort, to save the world from a vague threat that the trailers aren't explaining very well. Totally not the same thing. 

If you read my comment and assumed I was trying to suggest that this movie would be as big as an Avengers film, that’s on you. 

[SpiderByte]

I'm gonna dispute Majors being a factor on the box office. People on here were saying his arrest would hurt Guardians, when it didn't have any visible impact on Creed 3, a movie he was actually in.

[Giorno]

If the first CM was 2017 or 2018 release instead of being right before Endgame and set up at the end of IW, what kind of numbers are looking at? 600m WW maybe, then this likely drop off makes sense considering the overall slippage of marvel, china turning away from hollywood, terrible exchange rates OS and overall movie going being down, the first CM was never a true $1b movie, it just had a perfect confluence of factors that pushed it

Edited November 4, 2023 by Giorno

[DInky]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/694733099816452136/1170499477388402778/fightemptymidvals.jpg?ex=65594396&is=6546ce96&hm=ad3842dc5b350ed90742af525e20f0c18e6b74317096a149104ced00d334db86&=&width=708&height=865  

 

Too early for this?

[jimisawesome]

4 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

but who knows with supers this year, and this one specifically, from Disney's weird release (which is possibly worse than FNAF's last week)...

 

So much this.  Why wasn't this movie moved up to this weekend when Dune 2 moved?  Why not take the extra week of PLFs when the next weekend is a direct demo competition? 

 

 

I saw you mention elsewhere that you are getting a lot of promotion for this movie.  It's the opposite for me an example watched a full football game today that was about 3 1/2 hours total on ESPN, a Disney owned channel.  I got 1 ad for this movie.  I got probably 15-20 of the Brie Nissan ads though.  The Nissan ad where she is driving the Z is probably the one she has the least face time in and she still had more face time than the 1 ad for Marvels which I believe is called "Legacy".

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ThomasNicole]

I think the problem here (ignoring all the external problems) is lack of a good hook. 
 

Captain Marvel was well received, hard to spin that. But that movie simply doesn’t really stand out as something that should have a sequel.
 

It’s a very straightforward movie with a slight plot about Carol getting her memories back and then helping to fight Thanos. I would argue the movie does have a good hook in getting tangled with Avengers, but not standing on it’s own. That’s why it worked in that context but the movie simply isn’t really relevant beyond that.
 

In the end, i feel this movie is suffering because of this, it simply doesn’t feel important, the first one did it’s job, everyone saw her in Avengers and that’s it. 
 

I think the lack of a good hook would always hurt this, even if it’s called Captain Marvel 2. But obviously mixing it with Ms Marvel and TV Shows aren’t helping since clearly these series are part of the problem
 

 

[OncomingStorm93]

I’m not gonna bother reading any of what’s been posted here so far, just gonna share my thoughts on why this film is clearly destined to flop hard:

 

Firstly, treating D+ characters as AAA. Seriously stupid. It’s a team-up film that’s dragging Carol Danvers down to D+ stature.

 

Second, horrible marketing. What’s this film even about? The whole focus has been on the three leads being somehow interlinked, which is an interesting hook, but there’s no story from what I can tell for that hook to latch onto. Someone wants revenge on Carol and will overact however much is needed to achieve her goal. That’s all I understand.

 

This film also looks entirely generic visually. No sense of style. It looks boring!

 

The film also lacks connections to it’s predecessor that you would expect in a traditional sequel. No Jude Law. No Ronan the Accuser (obviously he’s dead, but the first film still indicated there would be more story between him and Carol). No Maria. No Talos. It’s just Carol and Fury (who doesn’t really count given he’s been in a dozen of these projects by now)

 

That’s all before we get to the MCU’s squandered goodwill.

 

I fear that this film’s BoxOffice is gonna make Quantumania look respectable in comparison. Yuck.

[Sckathian]

56 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

No? I’m saying that I seriously doubt the reason for this movie’s poor tracking is because people don’t see it as a sequel to CM. 

Avengers had a list of A list actors who had all appeared in a series of films (though let’s be honest RDJ is the pull that exploded the franchise) - The Marvels has characters a lot of people don’t even know of and actors they would call TV actors (mainly because only TV hires them…)

[Porthos]

23 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

I'm gonna dispute Majors being a factor on the box office. People on here were saying his arrest would hurt Guardians,

 

Ummm. It very likely did.  GOTG3's pre-sales were soft and got rescued by reviews/reactions/fan screenings.  As well as WOM once folks saw the actual film.

 

Not that I'm going to debate GOTG3's run in this thread at any great length (which includes how much it might have grossed had there been no Majors scandal) since it is now Officially Off Topic. 🙂 

 

23 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

when it didn't have any visible impact on Creed 3, a movie he was actually in.

 

This is almost impossible to say with the clarity you have here, given the Creed 3 was already half-way into its run when the story broke, late March. The legs absolutely could have been affected quite a bit.

 

Either way, *AND STAYING ON TOPIC*, you only get something like what looks to be happening with The Marvels when you have a death by a thousand paper cuts/perfect storm of events.  If you think one particular paper cut doesn't matter more than another, fine by me. 

 

But I've been observing fandoms for a very long time, and something like the Majors scandal is very rarely nbd.  At the very least, it sucks out energy from folks who would normally go out there and spread Good Vibes about their passions.  

 

[DInky]

1 minute ago, Sckathian said:

Avengers had a list of A list actors who had all appeared in a series of films (though let’s be honest RDJ is the pull that exploded the franchise) - The Marvels has characters a lot of people don’t even know of and actors they would call TV actors (mainly because only TV hires them…)

 

Teyonah Parris has been in movies before and Iman Vellani has literally just started her career (Ms. Marvel is her first and only credit). Also, back in 2011/2012 none of the Avengers cast besides Downey Jr. would have been considered A-list.

[SpiderByte]

26 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Ummm. It very likely did.  GOTG3's pre-sales were soft and got rescued by reviews/reactions/fan screenings.  As well as WOM once folks saw the actual film.

Then why did it not hurt Creed, again, a movie that actually has Jonathan Majors involved in any way with the movie. I certainly don't see how it'd affect The Marvels either.

Edited November 5, 2023 by SpiderByte

[Zakiyyah6]

Majors arrest did not hurt Guardians 3, a film that he is not even in. Ant-Man 3 have BvS level word of mouth hurt Guardians 3 opening weekend. 

[M37]

4 hours ago, M37 said:

Yeah this, as its much more a continuation to the the Disney Plus branch (DPMCU ?) of stories than a true sequel to an MCU/Avenger character. Its a DPMCU level event on the big screen, and audiences are treating it with the equivalent level of hype. They'll catch it on D+ whenever it winds up there

I get this is an ad for the streaming service itself, but that’s an awful lot of backstory 

 

[YM!]

23 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Then why did it not hurt Creed, again, a movie that actually has Jonathan Majors involved in any way with the movie. I certainly don't see how it'd affect The Marvels either.

I mean late legs wise, Creed III fell apart in early April which was around when the scandal first dropped but I can see it hurting Marvel movies more because Majors is considered one of the main faces and for all we know he won’t return after Creed III.

 

Think the quality of Quantumania hurt the worst. That was the Justice League of the MCU in terms of quality and the lynchpin of the recent collapse.

Edited November 5, 2023 by YM!

[Zakiyyah6]

"Do hours of homework before watching The Marvels."

 

Ugh, I loathe what Iger and Chesapeake Bay did to the MCU. 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 minutes ago, M37 said:

I get this is an ad for the streaming service itself, but that’s an awful lot of backstory 

 

And they wonder why no one is going to watch this...

[TwoMisfits]

6 hours ago, JustLurking said:

Is it realistic? It's not impossible but it would require an insanely good finish at this point and we're talking about something that has had really bad pace for weeks now with little sign of turning the boat around

 

maybe when the review embargo happens this film gets massively raved and we see a huge bump or something because I really don't see another scenario where this goes 70

 

I think at this point the most realistic range is for this to do 45-50 with some room to go below or above depending on reviews and just general finish with walkups

 

Well, I made my final OW call 7-10 days? ago from presales pace...but it seemed bad to mention $6.3M previews and $46Mish previews in this thread as my "this is the open" number.  It was painful enough in tracking

[SpiderByte]

28 minutes ago, YM! said:

I mean late legs wise, Creed III fell apart in early April which was around when the scandal first dropped but I can see it hurting Marvel movies more because Majors is considered one of the main faces and for all we know he won’t return after Creed III.

..in it's seventh week. Almost a full month after Majors was arrested. The weekend following his arrest was actually softer than the weekend prior, sub 40. Best drop of its run (not counting the final two weeks but that was literally in the tens of thousands of dollars for the total weekend so it doesn't count)

Edited November 5, 2023 by SpiderByte

[ringedmortality]

3 hours ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

 

I think a key word there is "look." While the Marvels name point is overstated but it hits on a core opportunity cost and a real early marketing mistake (yeah, it's completely impossible to walk by most pieces of Marvels marketing during the last month or two and not grasp this is a movie staring Brie Larson). However, I think it's really easy to walk by that initial Marvels poster and not have it implicitly scan as "another Captain Marvel movie" because she's sort of in the background and the most striking image is the horizon. If you actively look at it, you'll obviously see Larson but we're talking about a minimally engaged audience who can't be assumed to seek out knowledge about films in production. 

I don't think that's an accident, instead it's downstream of strategic marketing decisions as I think it's pretty obvious that Disney identified the lack of interest/awareness in Rambeau/KK as a "key challenge" which initial marketing spent time and effort attempting to remedy (it also seems as if they see/saw Imran as a strength to highlight). It really seems like that attempt just completely failed and the focus they spend on that had real opportunity costs of seeking out another major pitch for the film that could have resonated. 

 

 

This is high key nonsense SilverRoyce