Weekend Thread: Estimates BB 34, 1917 15.8, Dolittle 12.5, Gentlemen 11, Jumanji 7.9, Turning 7.3 | Bad Boys and 1917 cross 100M, Star Wars 500M

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[pepsa]

9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Don't think $200M is happening for Bad Boys (yet) but $180-190M is definitely in the cards. Very impressive surprise run.

 

1917 crossing $100M+ is also great news. If it wins Best Picture in two weeks $150M+ is likely.

 

Most movies in general had great holds, really, thanks to the openers being on the soft side (The Gentlemen got off to a good start given its niche appeal but The Turning won't be around for long with that F CinemaScore grade). Next weekend is also looking to provide no new real threats either (both Gretel & Hansel and The Rhythm Section seem like dumps) so I expect similarly good drops on Friday and Saturday to make up for the Super Bowl on Sunday. Of the highlights is Knives Out looking assured for $160M+, Little Women looking to pass $100M before the Oscars in two weeks, and Parasite crossing $30M. Love seeing quality movies getting rewarded.

What drops are you expecting for it to land at the 180-190m range?

 

Also to everyone last week complaining about bad OS gross and black movies not making alot OS:

This weekend it made $42m (up from last weekends $39m, it did get released in a quite a few extra countries) and the total is at $95m so it made $56m WW in the past week.

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

6 minutes ago, pepsa said:

What drops are you expecting for it to land at the 180-190m range?

 

Also to everyone last week complaining about bad OS gross and black movies not making alot OS:

This weekend it made $42m (up from last weekends $39m, it did get released in a quite a few extra countries) and the total is at $95m so it made $56m WW in the past week.

This is what we in the black community refer to as "concern trolling". Reason #1 why I ignored that BS last week. 

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, pepsa said:

What drops are you expecting for it to land at the 180-190m range?

 

Also to everyone last week complaining about bad OS gross and black movies not making alot OS:

This weekend it made $42m (up from last weekends $39m, it did get released in a quite a few extra countries) and the total is at $95m so it made $56m WW in the past week.

It's currently at $120M and will be sub-$20M next weekend (especially with the Super Bowl on Sunday) and will likely take a bit of a hit the following weekend with Birds of Prey arriving. From there it'll depend on how it holds in terms of theater count (Valentine's/President's Day weekend has 4 new movies opening) but $190M is a great target.

[Firepower]

What's up with The Gentlemen international gross?

[a2k]

JUM2 7.9 dom + 9.6 os = 17.5 ww for 737.5 ww

20 more dom and 25 os gives 782.5 ww

[filmlover]

13 minutes ago, Firepower said:

What's up with The Gentlemen international gross?

Guy Ritchie's crime flicks (which were his bread and butter before he turned to big-budget Hollywood fare) have always played better overseas than they ever have domestically. It even opened in a couple of territories a few weeks ago.

[DAJK]

Is it just me or is that an amazing overseas number for Bad Boys? Increased from last weekend (opened in new territories but still). Does anyone else think 200M overseas might be in play? 

[Europe is my playground]

6 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Is it just me or is that an amazing overseas number for Bad Boys? Increased from last weekend (opened in new territories but still). Does anyone else think 200M overseas might be in play? 

It still has to open in Brazil, Italy and Japan, and has secured a tbd China release. 200M+ is very much at play, possibly more if it clicks with Chinese (in the case Evil Bats Virus don't kill them all before)

[pepsa]

22 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Is it just me or is that an amazing overseas number for Bad Boys? Increased from last weekend (opened in new territories but still). Does anyone else think 200M overseas might be in play? 

$200m OS is happening (atleast it more likely that not, I am not saying it locked but It is what I expect).

$39m OW

$14m Mid week (OS mid weeks are mostely only Mon Tue Wed, some countries have a Wed - Sun weekend and some have the normal FSS)

$42m New markets like france russia and 11 others (Belgium, Netherlands, etc)

$12m Mid week (est)

$33m Weekend (new markets: Japan, Brazil, Colombia and India, estimating $7m + of them, so expecting a 40% drop for the other markets)

Total by next weekend: $140m

It only has Italy left as market (guessing $7m USD total there)

Other OS markets probably do something like this: (In full weeks now)

$27.9m (38% drop)

$16.8m (40% drop, Harly quin movies opens, but Europe Ociania and LA will make up most money now and they have better drops)

$10.8m (35% drop)

Than $16m more in the rest of it's run.

 

Add it all up and you get $215.5m, so yeah I would say it has a good shot at $200m.

EDIT: Btw this is without china, if it gets released in china add what ever you think it will make on top of it.

 

Edited January 26, 2020 by pepsa

[Johnny Tran]

20 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Greta direction is way better than Philips at least, she deserved a nomination

Not even close. It was standard PBS style directing. 

[MrGlass2]

On 1/25/2020 at 9:11 AM, Krissykins said:

Side note: there’s a horror film opening every week in February too, although one is limited. 
 

8 horror films in a row. No idea what the studios were thinking. 

That isn't surprising at all. In the last few years the only live-action genres that have consistently done well at the box office are superhero and horror movies, so studios are producing ever more of those. Horror isn't nearly successful but can be done on a much lower budget, so it doesn't hurt to try.

 

Although the level of failure this year shows that it is still possible to lose money and the public isn't eager to watch just any horror movie.

[DAJK]

4 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

Not even close. It was standard PBS style directing. 

I wouldn't go that far, it was very good directing, but I would place her 8th or 9th this year. Out of all the things that stood out in Little Women, the directing wasn't at the top. 

[Johnny Tran]

3 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I wouldn't go that far, it was very good directing, but I would place her 8th or 9th this year. Out of all the things that stood out in Little Women, the directing wasn't at the top. 

I agree with you,  people are acting like she filmed Casablanca and the academy pushed her down the stairs. Her being left out wasn't even really a snub because most people didn't think she would be in the final five to begin with.  A lot of people were predicting Taika or Noah as the fifth spot. 

[MrGlass2]

Is it because the Best Movie category has been expanded to 8+ that some people seem to think that Best Director is more prestigious and a bigger "snub" now?

[DAJK]

14 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

I agree with you,  people are acting like she filmed Casablanca and the academy pushed her down the stairs. Her being left out wasn't even really a snub because most people didn't think she would be in the final five to begin with.  A lot of people were predicting Taika or Noah as the fifth spot. 

Agree, I think if Director was 10 spots she would/should get in there, but ahead of her this year I'd put all 5 nominees, Baumbach, Waititi, and Dexter Fletcher. 

[PenguinHyphy]

1 hour ago, sfran43 said:

 

 

Unassuming run, its global gross might not even surpass Hidden Figure’s domestic numbers. The people hyping up its box office performance were just trying to have it appear as some juggernaut that the Oscars cannot ignore. 

Edited January 26, 2020 by PenguinHyphy