Weekend Thread: Estimates BB 34, 1917 15.8, Dolittle 12.5, Gentlemen 11, Jumanji 7.9, Turning 7.3 | Bad Boys and 1917 cross 100M, Star Wars 500M

[Krissykins]

6 hours ago, LegendaryBen said:

Cats is now in many second run theaters. That's probably what helped it hold well, but it still won't be enough to reach $30m, let alone TGS' gross.

 

At least Universal as a studio isn't averse to repertoire screenings, Cats will get midnight showings for years to come.

Yeh Cats feels like a cult film. I think it’ll explode on streaming out of curiosity. 
 

 

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

3 hours ago, JB33 said:

Why do you say this? I'm not saying I disagree, as I haven't seen LW so I can't judge. I'm asking genuinely.

I can have a stab at this  even though it wasnt my point.

 

Little Women is one of the most confidently shot films of the year. Its lighting and photography is exemplary - very Barry Lydon style tactile environments, with the warmth coming right out of the screen. The meta ending is handled with panache and flair. It takes a lot to deliver the definitive version of a movie that has been adapted 3 times succesfully already and have something new to say and Gerwig managed it absolutely. I understand folks for whom it might not be their thing, but not heard many legit criticisms of it in terms of craft.

 

Joker could have been an incredible film with just a bit more confidence and flair from Phillips in what he was saying. If he had truly leaned into the Wayne-as-elite angle or the social angle more specifically. As it was it was a bit too close to the "Society!" Soup with some unnecessary scenes and an ending scene that seemed to come from literally a totally different film. For me the movie goes from a B/B+ to an A- just by finishing 5 minutes earlier with him on the car. In terms of directing awards, Phillips got to work with the worlds best actor on top form, a top class cinematographer and a first rate score and still made some core mistakes, alongside some great work. Thats good for honourable mention status IMO but not a true shortlist.

 

That said, I think Two Popes, Ford V Ferrari, Midsommar and maybe a few other (Gems, Farewell, Lighthouse and Portrait not out here yet) had claims to the Best Director spots as well. I mean, Id not have the alienating and empathy-void Irishman anywhere even close either - well below Joker - but thats a whole other story.

 

Edited January 26, 2020 by Ipickthiswhiterose

[DAJK]

Unpopular opinion, Mama Mia 2 is one of the best (if not at least most enjoyable) movies of 2018. 

[SMmadrid90]

6 hours ago, LegendaryBen said:

Actually, its performance has been awesome considering its Oscar buzz hasn't been that big. It will crack $100m and it may happen by Oscar night. 

LOL what? So you are saying that a movie nominated for 6 Oscars including BP with an Oscar nominated female director and Oscar nominated/winner cast and crew hasn't great Oscar buzz? Also it's funny how a few people here talk about LW like it hadn't a big fanbase in USA so crossing $100m with that fanbase + Oscar nominations is not a surprise to anyone. The 1994 version grossed $50m without inflation

[narniadis]

4 minutes ago, SMmadrid90 said:

LOL what? So you are saying that a movie nominated for 6 Oscars including BP with an Oscar nominated female director and Oscar nominated/winner cast and crew hasn't great Oscar buzz? Also it's funny how a few people here talk about LW like it hadn't a big fanbase in USA so crossing $100m with that fanbase + Oscar nominations is not a surprise to anyone. The 1994 version grossed $50m without inflation

Difference between being nominated and the buzz outside of the noms actually going anywhere - you must be another new follower to this stuff....

As for the talk about it, I would imagine that some are viewing it through the lens of period pics, which rarely do more than 50m in this day and age. 25 years ago even then 50m was great and with inflation, this remake will not (or will barely) catch up.

Crossing 100m is a feat for any kind of period piece, but especially for one that on the surface doesn't have a "broad" audience to draw from. And considering that a couple weeks ago, there was question about its holds - reaching 100m is good. Had it opened Now without the 1st week of its run being a holiday 100m wouldn't even be an option based on how it has behaved / performed.

Calm down a bit and remember that everyone has a view on it - if it was a guarantee for your that it be a big hit and make the 100m mark, great, but you were not in the majority around here.

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

21 minutes ago, SMmadrid90 said:

LOL what? So you are saying that a movie nominated for 6 Oscars including BP with an Oscar nominated female director and Oscar nominated/winner cast and crew hasn't great Oscar buzz? Also it's funny how a few people here talk about LW like it hadn't a big fanbase in USA so crossing $100m with that fanbase + Oscar nominations is not a surprise to anyone. The 1994 version grossed $50m without inflation

Little Women will have outgrossed a Terminator film, an Addams Family film, a Winnie The Pooh film, a Charlies Angels film and an X Men film. Those properties were all big in the 90s too.

It will finish with roughly the same adjusted gross as the 90s version  - which featured a much more established box office draw in the lead (Ryder was a full A lister), in a far more competitive market, having been successfully released abroad which the 90s movie wasn't making the movie more profitable overall
 

A domestic period drama is not the same sell now as it was in the 90s. At that time you could sell period as opulence and spectacle - no chance of doing that now. Crucially it has made more money  than Downton Abbey, a hugely popular contemporary period drama that is far more a part of the culture and current zeitgeist than Little Women was and a property lots of fans were excited about, while no lovers of the novel were really asking inherently for another big screen Little Women adaptation as i expect you would know if you knew anyone who loves Little Women.

 

That this version improved financially over last one given how many advantages that had over this....yeah, its a pretty impressive achievement.

 

Edited January 26, 2020 by Ipickthiswhiterose

[ThomasNicole]

4 hours ago, JB33 said:

Why do you say this? I'm not saying I disagree, as I haven't seen LW so I can't judge. I'm asking genuinely.

He said there’s controversy Because Greta didn’t get a nomination but the movie wasn’t even that good (to deserve it, probably).

 

I said i disagreed because her work on LW is excellent, way better than Philips work on Joker for example, and he get a nomination.

 

I think Lulu Wang also deserve one spot, her work on The Farewell is brilliant.

[SMmadrid90]

3 minutes ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

Little Women will have outgrossed a Terminator film, an Addams Family film, a Winnie The Pooh film, a Charlies Angels film and an X Men film. Those properties were all big in the 90s too.

It will finish with roughly the same adjusted gross as the 90s version  - which featured a much more established box office draw in the lead (Ryder was a full A lister), in a far more competitive market, having been successfully released abroad which the 90s movie wasn't making the movie more profitable overall
 

A domestic period drama is not the same sell now as it was in the 90s. At that time you could sell period as opulence and spectacle - no chance of doing that now.

 

That this version improved financially over last one given how many advantages that had over this....yeah, its a pretty impressive achievement.

 

 

5 minutes ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

Little Women will have outgrossed a Terminator film, an Addams Family film, a Winnie The Pooh film, a Charlies Angels film and an X Men film. Those properties were all big in the 90s too.

It will finish with roughly the same adjusted gross as the 90s version  - which featured a much more established box office draw in the lead (Ryder was a full A lister), in a far more competitive market, having been successfully released abroad which the 90s movie wasn't making the movie more profitable overall
 

A domestic period drama is not the same sell now as it was in the 90s. At that time you could sell period as opulence and spectacle - no chance of doing that now.

 

That this version improved financially over last one given how many advantages that had over this....yeah, its a pretty impressive achievement.

 

"Many advantages that had over this" Now we are living in the era of the social media, this movie had huge hype there since the trailer came out, the cast is A-list for the most part, Emma Watson and Timothée have promote it to their huge number of followers on Instagram and Twitter and the cast did a worldwide promo also Saoirse and Florence had Oscar buzz since the first screenings. The fanbase now is bigger than 25 years ago so i don't know what advantages are you talking about, it's a very good film with great reviews and a feminist take which right now is more relevant. Please don't compare it to those box office flops because their source material isn't beloved like the LW book

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

20 minutes ago, SMmadrid90 said:

 

"Many advantages that had over this" Now we are living in the era of the social media, this movie had huge hype there since the trailer came out, the cast is A-list for the most part, Emma Watson and Timothée have promote it to their huge number of followers on Instagram and Twitter and the cast did a worldwide promo also Saoirse and Florence had Oscar buzz since the first screenings. The fanbase now is bigger than 25 years ago so i don't know what advantages are you talking about, it's a very good film with great reviews and a feminist take which right now is more relevant. Please don't compare it to those box office flops because their source material isn't beloved like the LW book

In 1994 Wynona Ryder was coming off a run of Beetlejuice, Heathers, Edward Scissorhands, Dracula and the Age of Innocence. All in the previous 5 years. That is an A Lister.

 

Ronan and Pugh may be better actresses and they may, hopefully will, become bigger names.  But comparing Ronan and Pugh now with Ryder then in terms of marketing is just....no. 

 

And contrary to what twitter may tell you, there were just as many feminists in the 90s, being just as relevant, as there are today.

 

And Terminator, Addams Family, Winnie the Pooh and X Men don't have beloved source material?

 

Perhaps the beat comparison for this movie is the 2005 Pride and Prejudice.  Another adaptation of a popular classic featuring some up and comers but which nobody really asked for. This has relatively outperformed that by some margin.

 

EDIT: Saoirse Ronan was also in another classic adaptation this year. Of Chekhov's Seagull. This is another beloved literary classic. It wasnt even on anyones radar and its unlikely most have even heard of its existence. That's how tough the market is for period classics. 

Edited January 26, 2020 by Ipickthiswhiterose

[SMmadrid90]

1 minute ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

In 1994 Wynona Ryder was coming off a run of Beetlejuice, Heathers, Edward Scissorhands, Dracula and the Age of Innocence. All in the previous 5 years. That is an A Lister.

 

Ronan and Pugh may be better actresses and they may, hopefully will, become bigger names.  But comparing Ronan and Pugh now with Ryder then in terms of marketing is just....no. 

 

And contrary to what twitter may tell you, there were just as many feminists in the 90s, being just as relevant, as there are today.

 

And Terminator, Addams Family and X Men don't have beloved source material?

 

Perhaps the beat comparison for this movie is the 2005 Pride and Prejudice.  Another adaptation of a popular classic featuring some up and comers but which nobody really asked for. This has relatively outperformed that by some margin.

You can think whatever you want, i don't need to make comparations between actresses and other movies to make a point. If you want to think that LW wasn't one of the most anticipated movies of 2019 it's okay, i know what i saw and read since the movie was announced in 2018

[filmlover]

Little Women has done great. Period pieces often fail to light the box office on fire but when the ingredients are there audiences will definitely show up. We can probably expect similar numbers for West Side Story this Christmas since it's also functioning as similar counterprogramming.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

2 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

I think Lulu Wang also deserve one spot, her work on The Farewell is brilliant.

Still so mad The Farewell in general got snubbed from the Oscars. The only thing that will make it up for me is if Parasite wins Best Picture.

[keysersoze123]

My numbers were not too accurate yesterday. But if MTC were to be believed Bad Boys is looking at big increase(~60%). Gentlemen around 30% increase. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Bad Boys for Life	16.00
1917	7.60
Dolittle	6.05
The Gentlemen	4.50
Jumanji: The Next Level	3.90
The Turning	3.15
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker	2.75

 

[kitik]

very impressive for Bad Boys!

[Legion Again]

Damn, those are some fine looking Sat numbers.

[charlie Jatinder]

8mn weekend for Jumanji. Damn. $300mn is locked.

[Legion Again]

What about KO? If it’s having as good a Sat as rest overall hold could be super impressive.

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

What about KO? If it’s having as good a Sat as rest overall hold could be super impressive.

+85%

[Felandria]

29 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Bad Boys for Life	16.00
1917	7.60
Dolittle	6.05
The Gentlemen	4.50
Jumanji: The Next Level	3.90
The Turning	3.15
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker	2.75

 

Wow, almost double for BB and 1917 and more than double for the other non openers?