Weekend Thread: Estimates BB 34, 1917 15.8, Dolittle 12.5, Gentlemen 11, Jumanji 7.9, Turning 7.3 | Bad Boys and 1917 cross 100M, Star Wars 500M

[sfran43]

 

 

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

Edited January 26, 2020 by sfran43

[sfran43]

 

 

[Legion Again]

The TROS Sun estimate is a joke. Will gain 300k+

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[pepsa]

40 minutes ago, BDC said:

All of the John Wick films had roughly a 3x Overall/Opening 3-day multiple, and none of them opened on a holiday weekend. BB3 needs a roughly 3.2x multiple opening from a holiday weekend. I don't see it happening. If it gets to $200m, it will be surprising. Around $180m seems more likely.

I think instead of looking at historic data for mutlies and such we should just take a look at how it did so far:

62.5m OW

34m+ Second weekend (46% or better drop)

Total through sunday would be 120.5m (.6 if exact 34m).

If next week drops 38% (so only slightly better than this weekend with it not being holiday inflated or it second weekend) but superbowl will decrease sunday signicantly ofc.

We get a total of 152.5m. Comming of a 21.1m weekend.

In it's 4th weekend it will have birds of pray that might do big buisness so a drop of 45% seems fair. (week to week the drop will be a bit lower because bidrs of pray only effect it on the weekend) so week to week drop of 42%.

We get an axtra 18.6m to about: $171.1m and a 11.6m weekend.

The weekend after that it will have valentine so it drop 30% week to week to about $184.1m. Doing a 8.5m holiday weekend.

It fair to say from that point it will easly do another 11m - 14m and at that point sonny will probably push it over.

I think that we have a bigger chance to go over $200m than to go under atp. If next will tell us a lot, a drop under 35% means 200m is happening.

 

 

 

Edited January 26, 2020 by pepsa

[sfran43]

 

[a2k]

 

JUM2

 

Jan 24, 2020

-

$7,900,000

-19%

3,121

$2,531

$283,445,800

7

 

Jan 24, 2020	6	$1,705,000	+234%	-22%	3,121	$546	$277,250,800	43
Jan 25, 2020	-	$3,705,000	+117%	-11%	3,121	$1,187	$280,955,800	44
Jan 26, 2020	-	$2,490,000	-33%	-26%	3,121	$798	$283,445,800	45

 

310 back on the menu? 😋

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[baumer]

Don't forget guys, next weekend is super bowl Sunday. most films are going to drop between 50 - 60% on Sunday. So next weekend grosses will be a little bit less than usual.

[pepsa]

3 minutes ago, baumer said:

Don't forget guys, next weekend is super bowl Sunday. most films are going to drop between 50 - 60% on Sunday. So next weekend grosses will be a little bit less than usual.

65-70% drops possible for familiy movies like Jumanij etc.

[Damianport1]

Bad Boys might make 200M. How? This is the most surprising box office thing since American Sniper.

If this had make 20-30M nobody would be shocked.

Edited January 26, 2020 by Damianport1

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

Knives Out has become such a phenom it's crossing $300m WW on a $40m budget, WOW! A run like this on the streaming Era we're living in is so symbolic. People still care for non-blockbuster movies.

[filmscholar]

34 Million 2nd Weekend coming off a Holiday Weekend with direct competition from newcomers in both weeks.  Nice hold for the Bad Boys.  Next week is Super Bowl Weekend so let's keep this going for 3 weeks in row.   It's still ahead of both "John Wick 3" and "Hobbs & Shaw" domestically.  Shoot it's even hanging with "Fallout" which ended up 220 Domestically.  

 

 

 

Edited January 26, 2020 by filmscholar

[filmlover]

Don't think $200M is happening for Bad Boys (yet) but $180-190M is definitely in the cards. Very impressive surprise run.

 

1917 crossing $100M+ is also great news. If it wins Best Picture in two weeks $150M+ is likely.

 

Most movies in general had great holds, really, thanks to the openers being on the soft side (The Gentlemen got off to a good start given its niche appeal but The Turning won't be around for long with that F CinemaScore grade). Next weekend is also looking to provide no new real threats either (both Gretel & Hansel and The Rhythm Section seem like dumps) so I expect similarly good drops on Friday and Saturday to make up for the Super Bowl on Sunday. Of the highlights is Knives Out looking assured for $160M+, Little Women looking to pass $100M before the Oscars in two weeks, and Parasite crossing $30M. Love seeing quality movies getting rewarded.

[Menor the Destroyer]

200 should happen for Bad Boys. It already had a great hold this weekend compared to Wick 3 so that is not a very good comp. It's $19 million ahead already in day-to-day grosses compared to that film and the gap for the second weekend was bigger than for the first despite Wick 3 getting a Memorial Day boost. Plus Wick 3 had another big drop in the following weekend before it stabilized.