Weekend Thread: Estimates BB 34, 1917 15.8, Dolittle 12.5, Gentlemen 11, Jumanji 7.9, Turning 7.3 | Bad Boys and 1917 cross 100M, Star Wars 500M

[Legion Again]

Been idling thinking a bit recently about how much OW growth has outstripped overall growth. For example, HP1, IM2, and JW:FK all have basically the same adjusted OWs in the 146M-149M range (2019 $).   
 

But HP1 was an OW record breaker, placed #1. IM2 placed #5. And JW:FK was just the 20th best OW at the time. I wonder how long this is sustainable. What will an OW of 148M 2019 $ get you in 2025? 40th best? 50th? 60th?

Edited January 26, 2020 by Arendelle Legion

[DAJK]

Holy crap at that Bad Boys number! 32-33+ definitely happening if that holds. Good jump for 1917 as well, could get 15+ for the weekend, Dolittle close to 13, Gentlemen will be over 11, and Turning will even likely reach 7. 

[john2000]

great numbers

[Krissykins]

5 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Bad Boys for Life	16.00
1917	7.60
Dolittle	6.05
The Gentlemen	4.50
Jumanji: The Next Level	3.90
The Turning	3.15
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker	2.75

 

Great jumps. Even a jump for The Turning surprisingly 

[baumer]

Is that right for SW? A 130% increase? That's huge!

[1Robert1]

12 hours ago, misafeco said:

Better to compare to a year with the exact same calendar: 2013

Jan 24 Friday

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/date/2014-01-24/?ref_=bo_rl_table_64

Ride Along: +262.2%

The Nut Job: +292.1%

Frozen: +211.8%

Devil's Due: +203.4%

 

The actual good news for Jumanji is that the weekly drop is just 21.8% which is the best drop in the top 10 after Knives Out.

Yes Ride Along, and The nut job had better friday than jumanji this year, but both this movies were released during mlk weekend, so i'm not sure if comparing 7th weekend with 2nd weekend is a fair comparison.

[baumer]

So SW looking at around a 6.2 mill weekend. Will cross 500 mill.

[1Robert1]

13 hours ago, narniadis said:

 

One more time you said that I have a lot to learn, and i agree with you, but i would like to remind you that our discussion about jumanji started when you wrote that this movie will have multi like national treasure 2, and i said it will do better. National treasure 2 had 4.91 multi, so Jumanji would have to end with 291m. It will do better. I have never argued with you about who know more about box office. You have much more information, so it's very weird for me that you keep arguing with me about movie whose multi i predicted better than you...

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

Those would be awesome holds.

 

BB just a great story and carries on.

Jumanji 300 maaaaaaybe not dead.

Gentlemen pushing the dial slooowly up and might hit 11. Still looking too niche to breakout but clearly it is being positively received.

And Knives Out presumably continues to just be ridiculous.

[Bagatelle31]

3 minutes ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

Those would be awesome holds.

 

BB just a great story and carries on.

Jumanji 300 maaaaaaybe not dead.

Gentlemen pushing the dial slooowly up and might hit 11. Still looking too niche to breakout but clearly it is being positively received.

And Knives Out presumably continues to just be ridiculous.

Jumanji 300 maaaaaaybe not dead?????? Lol it's locked since last week.

[Sweep the Leg]

29 minutes ago, baumer said:

So SW looking at around a 6.2 mill weekend. Will cross 500 mill.

Oh so you think it’s going to have a -20% hold on Sunday?

 

[pepsa]

5 minutes ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

Those would be awesome holds.

 

BB just a great story and carries on.

Jumanji 300 maaaaaaybe not dead.

Gentlemen pushing the dial slooowly up and might hit 11. Still looking too niche to breakout but clearly it is being positively received.

And Knives Out presumably continues to just be ridiculous.

Jumanji had a decent shot at $300m (65% change) with a 6.5m weekend

With a 7m weekend it had 85% chance to cross $300m

With a 8m weekend it's locked to cruise past that $300m mark 😛

 

BB doing $34.5m + is crazy good. Hoping that it will have a 35% or less drop next weekend (with the sunday superbowl).

[baumer]

28 minutes ago, Sweep the Leg said:

Oh so you think it’s going to have a -20% hold on Sunday?

 

oh yeah I forgot. Last weekend was Martin Luther King weekend so everything dropped softly on Sunday. Sorry I haven't been paying attention to the box office all that much in the last few months. regardless of what it does it's going to break the 500 million Mark so that's pretty good

[pepsa]

10 minutes ago, baumer said:

oh yeah I forgot. Last weekend was Martin Luther King weekend so everything dropped softly on Sunday. Sorry I haven't been paying attention to the box office all that much in the last few months. regardless of what it does it's going to break the 500 million Mark so that's pretty good

I remember that when I was new (2013), you and tele were the most active people on these forums. It's so nostalgic to think back to.

I hope the spark in you will reignite one day agian, I realy liked you takes back then.

[baumer]

17 minutes ago, pepsa said:

I remember that when I was new (2013), you and tele were the most active people on these forums. It's so nostalgic to think back to.

I hope the spark in you will reignite one day agian, I realy liked you takes back then.

That's very kind of you to say and thank you. I still love movies and I still love talking about them it's just life is gotten to be a bit busy in the last year.

[charlie Jatinder]

7 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Bad Boys for Life	15.35
1917	7.28
Dolittle	5.84
The Gentlemen	4.24
Jumanji: The Next Level	3.72
The Turning	2.89
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker	2.56

 

 

[narniadis]

1 hour ago, 1Robert1 said:

One more time you said that I have a lot to learn, and i agree with you, but i would like to remind you that our discussion about jumanji started when you wrote that this movie will have multi like national treasure 2, and i said it will do better. National treasure 2 had 4.91 multi, so Jumanji would have to end with 291m. It will do better. I have never argued with you about who know more about box office. You have much more information, so it's very weird for me that you keep arguing with me about movie whose multi i predicted better than you...

😂😂 considering my 5x prediction which I held to even when everyone was freaking out after China will still be met you are picking at weeds. 

A multiplier like NT2 (which again, it hasnt met yet) is upper end of behavior for a film such as Jumanji. I am not going to go over the reasons why since its detailed in past posts. 

I have never once denied that the film exceeded my 50/5x/250 total, and after its opening made the argument that if it got 5x 300m was guaranteed. So again, not sure what you want to continue arguing about. Its legs have been as I expected from Day 1, total was a tad higher to which I am grateful. 

I encourage you if you stick around to play the Summer Game when March and April roll around. You can put your learning to the test on an entire slate and realize how much even old timers still learn since box office isnt static.

 

[narniadis]

8 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

 

Still a great Saturday! Thank you for the update. 

[narniadis]

2 hours ago, 1Robert1 said:

Yes Ride Along, and The nut job had better friday than jumanji this year, but both this movies were released during mlk weekend, so i'm not sure if comparing 7th weekend with 2nd weekend is a fair comparison.

Opening on MLK doesnt have anything to do with it. The only valid critique with a holiday is remembering the week to week impact or the fact that a Monday holiday inflated the Sunday hold all of which inflates or changes the weekend total, but not the Friday. 

Only Friday on the calendar to consider with such things (barring Christmas if it falls there) is Good Friday since it so dramatically changes how things play for that one weekend. 

Behavior of films in play is way more than this minute little aspect you have latched onto. 

[1Robert1]

8 minutes ago, narniadis said:

😂😂 considering my 5x prediction which I held to even when everyone was freaking out after China will still be met you are picking at weeds. 

A multiplier like NT2 (which again, it hasnt met yet) is upper end of behavior for a film such as Jumanji. I am not going to go over the reasons why since its detailed in past posts. 

I have never once denied that the film exceeded my 50/5x/250 total, and after its opening made the argument that if it got 5x 300m was guaranteed. So again, not sure what you want to continue arguing about. Its legs have been as I expected from Day 1, total was a tad higher to which I am grateful. 

I encourage you if you stick around to play the Summer Game when March and April roll around. You can put your learning to the test on an entire slate and realize how much even old timers still learn since box office isnt static.

 

I'm stating the fact that i predicted that movie will do better than your prediction. I don't know why you are struggling with accepting reality?

I also don't understand why did you write that  ,,everyone was freaking out after China''  it's clearly a lie.

 

On 12/10/2019 at 11:48 PM, junkshop36 said: I still think it can do 300m DOM and 700+ WW, which would be perfectly fine and pretty much guarantee a 3rd movie.

On 12/12/2019 at 6:39 AM RyanReynolds said:

t it can make 300m with 55m ow, star wars is the only threat, not seeing any other breakouts

Alli December 11

It will surprise some people...  300M+

The Horror of Lucas Films December 10

Glad to see it getting good reviews! I'm even more optmistic that it's easily going above $300m DOM and I can't wait to see the reaction of some persons here when it happens. 

My comment December 10

I don't understand why people predict that this movie do around 400 ww, i'm thinking about at least 700

 

So there was many users who sad that your 250m prediction is too low. So what's point of your lie that everyone was freaking out?