Weekdays Thread (02/10 - 02/13) Parasite Takeover. Tuesday P3.

[sfran43]

1	(1)	Birds of Prey (And the Fa…	Warner Bros.	$3,381,368	+57%		4,236	$798	$38,551,561	5
2	(3)	Bad Boys For Life	Sony Pictures	$1,263,733	+56%	-45%	3,530	$358	$168,405,823	26
3	(2)	1917	Universal	$1,204,405	+49%	-18%	3,548	$339	$134,793,479	49
4	(4)	Parasite	Neon	$661,099	+32%	+193%	1,060	$624	$36,694,836	124
5	(5)	Dolittle	Universal	$584,225	+60%	-29%	3,462	$169	$64,782,955	26
6	(6)	Jumanji: The Next Level	Sony Pictures	$501,652	+47%	-19%	2,729	$184	$299,329,113	61
7	(9)	Little Women	Sony Pictures	$369,814	+56%	-27%	1,805	$205	$103,331,069	49
8	(8)	Gretel & Hansel	United Artists	$360,561	+37%	-46%	3,007	$120	$12,227,805	12
9	(11)	Knives Out	Lionsgate	$272,568	+56%	-21%	1,443	$189	$159,336,037	77
10	(10)	Star Wars: The Rise of Sk…	Walt Disney	$269,493	+36%	-34%	1,746	$154	$511,102,540	54
11	(13)	Just Mercy	Warner Bros.	$221,327	+76%	-43%	1,315	$168	$33,705,414	49
12	(15)	The Rhythm Section	Paramount Pi…	$196,226	+87%	-57%	3,049	$64	$5,208,835	12
13	(12)	Jojo Rabbit	Fox Searchlight	$189,474	+36%	-24%	1,096	$173	$30,587,439	117
14	(14)	The Turning	Universal	$142,860	+35%	-58%	1,848	$77	$14,353,495	19
15	(-)	Frozen II	Walt Disney	$123,120	+32%	-27%	1,131	$109	$474,527,231	82
-	(-)	Uncut Gems	A24	$118,086	+52%	+84%	1,142	$103	$49,433,321	61
-	(-)	Ford v. Ferrari	20th Century…	$90,377	+34%	-27%	743	$122	$116,504,121	89
-	(-)	Spies in Disguise	20th Century…	$80,910	+39%	-27%	800	$101	$65,050,214	49
-	(-)	Bombshell	Lionsgate	$38,839	+35%	-34%	272	$143	$31,323,880	61
-	(-)	Like a Boss	Paramount Pi…	$29,821	+68%	-61%	295	$101	$22,018,448	33
-	(-)	Once Upon a Time…in Holly…	Sony Pictures	$16,509	-9%	-60%	583	$28	$142,429,183	201
-	(-)	Underwater	20th Century…	$15,810	+37%	-70%	226	$70	$17,046,002	33
-	(-)	The Assistant	Bleecker Street	$15,256	+33%	+153%	25	$610	$247,735	12
-	(-)	A Beautiful Day in the Ne…	Sony Pictures	$14,564	+42%	-35%	155	$94	$61,350,379	82
-	(-)	Joker	Warner Bros.	$12,026	+13%	-6%	501	$24	$335,229,808	131
-	(-)	Panga	FIP	$4,880	+215%	-69%	37	$132	$578,967	19
-	(-)	Cats	Universal	$4,010	+59%	-40%	85	$47	$27,158,925	54
-	(-)	Maleficent: Mistress of Evil	Walt Disney	$2,375	+9%	-21%	68	$35	$113,925,656	117

[fmpro]

What kind of increases will we see on friday(VD)? And will BO drop on sat again

 

We dont really celebrate VD where i come from so i have no idea what happens when its on a friday

[narniadis]

13 minutes ago, fmpro said:

What kind of increases will we see on friday(VD)? And will BO drop on sat again

 

We dont really celebrate VD where i come from so i have no idea what happens when its on a friday

2014 is a good example to look at. Massive increases on Friday muted Saturday across the board. Expect flat or small drops for adult skewing films and flat to small increases for family and kid films. 

Due to the holiday on Monday, Sunday will see better than normal holds as well. As it goes, this particular calendar line up is good for films. 

[a2k]

6

(6)

Jumanji: The Next Level

Sony Pictures

$501,652

+47%

-19%

2,729

$184

$299,329,113

61

 

Smaller Tue bump than expected. Hopefully Wed doesn't fall more than 40%.

Using a flat Thu due to Sonic instead of a pre-Valentine bump JUM2 should target 4.5 weekend if not 5.0.

 

0.30 (-40%) + 0.30

 

1.275 (+325%)

1.785 (+40%)

1.428 (-20%)

= 4.488

[Maxmoser3]

Eh this looks like the biggest highlight this week thus far is Parasite! Also another thing people forgot to mention here this weekend was that Uncut Gems is now the highest grossing A24 domestic release!

 

Both Gems and Parasite will be in a year that they will outgross the domestic totals of Seth Rogen, Anne Hathaway, Rebel Wilson, and Liam Neeson led films!  Also both films outgrossed Cats! 

[fmpro]

16 minutes ago, narniadis said:

2014 is a good example to look at. Massive increases on Friday muted Saturday across the board. Expect flat or small drops for adult skewing films and flat to small increases for family and kid films. 

Due to the holiday on Monday, Sunday will see better than normal holds as well. As it goes, this particular calendar line up is good for films. 

Thanks. Should be a healthy 4 day weekend then. Interesting to see if movies like 1917,Doolittle,Jumajii ect could stay flat from last weekend

[TalismanRing]

3 hours ago, sfran43 said:

 

On a $50m budget. 

 

On the bright side - a couple more days  and it will pass The Goldfinch domestically (still about $5m behind WW....)

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

3-Day Weekend Forecast

Film	Distributor	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, February 16	% Change from Last Wknd
Sonic the Hedgehog	Paramount	$46,000,000	$46,000,000	NEW
Harley Quinn: Birds of Prey	Warner Bros.	$15,600,000	$55,900,000	-53%
The Photograph	Universal	$16,200,000	$16,200,000	NEW
Blumhouse’s Fantasy Island	Sony / Columbia	$13,900,000	$13,900,000	NEW
Bad Boys for Life	Sony / Columbia	$10,900,000	$180,100,000	-9%
1917	Universal	$8,000,000	$143,800,000	-13%
Jumanji: The Next Level	Sony / Columbia	$5,000,000	$305,100,000	-10%
Dolittle	Universal	$4,200,000	$70,000,000	-36%
Parasite	Neon	$3,900,000	$41,400,000

[sfran43]

Looks like BB4L will almost certainly reach $200M domestically! What an amazing run its having!!

[cdsacken]

That prediction is too harsh. I also think sub 40% is nearly impossible.

 

Gimme 16-18.5. I'll guess 17.25m

[AdrianL]

They expect BoP to make less than $2m for today and tomorrow with that estimate lol

Edited February 13, 2020 by AdrianL

[AdrianL]

33 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

Looks like BB4L will almost certainly reach $200M domestically! What an amazing run its having!!

Very impressive considering It Chapter 2 was the only film last year to be in the 200m range with Jumanji passing 300m soon

 

[Barnack]

-53% on a holiday weekend do sound harsh, since 2013 movies in reach of a the top 5 with a -45% or worst drop that weekend:

 

Jupiter Ascending: -49.6%

50 shades darker: -56.5

John Wick 2: -46.7%

50 shades freed: -55%

Cold Pursuit: -45.8%

 

Outside the 50 Shades, strong sunday make it really hard for that to happen, but looking at JW 2 -47% with 2.2M previews that started at 7 PM.

 

If we compare those 2 (both r-rated)

 

JW2 FSS

1 weekend: 28.236M

2 weekend: 16.216M

%drop: 42.5%

 

A similar drop for BOP

1 weekend: 29.01M

2 weekend: 16.68M

 

That 1 million above box office pro if it achieve the exact same FSS-FSS drop of JW2, a movie with excellent leg,

 

but that could a challenge considering both movies daily drop has of now

days: JW2 / Prey

Sunday.: -29.3% / -35.6%

Monday.: -66.9% / -72.5%

Tuesday: +78.2% / +56.5%

 

In absolute

Sunday.: $8.06M / $7.81M (97%)

Monday.: $2.67M / $2.16M (81%)

Tuesday: $4.76M / $3.38M (71%)

 

 

BOP Made 86.5% of JW2 the last 3 days, that could be a $14M weekend if their weekend follow that, a in-between between pessimistic/optimistic scenario give you  $15.3M.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[a2k]

BOP guess

 

1.9 (-44%); 40.5

1.9 ; 42.4

 

5.2 (+175%)

6.5 (+25%)

4.6 (-30%)

= 16.3 (-51%) ; 58.7

[charlie Jatinder]

HQ: 1.75

1917: 0.75

BbfL: 0.75

Parasite: 0.48

 

Jumanji: 0.29

[narniadis]

1 hour ago, cJS said:

HQ: 1.75

1917: 0.75

BbfL: 0.75

Parasite: 0.48

 

Jumanji: 0.29

Appears to be a rough Wednesday (normal of course). 

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Appears to be a rough Wednesday (normal of course). 

yeah surprised that in morning it was looking much much better.

[DAJK]

5 hours ago, Maxmoser3 said:

Eh this looks like the biggest highlight this week thus far is Parasite! Also another thing people forgot to mention here this weekend was that Uncut Gems is now the highest grossing A24 domestic release!

 

Both Gems and Parasite will be in a year that they will outgross the domestic totals of Seth Rogen, Anne Hathaway, Rebel Wilson, and Liam Neeson led films!  Also both films outgrossed Cats! 

Yes, that's exactly how studios are going to measure success in the new decade

[Madhuvan]

1 hour ago, narniadis said:

Appears to be a rough Wednesday (normal of course). 

Not Normal for Harley Quinn. Hoping that Thursday increases.