The Batman | March 4, 2022 | Warner Bros. | Certified Fresh on RT | 7th Most Profitable Movie of 2023

[excel1]

Problem is critics are MUCH harder on films that try to be GREAT than they are on those who merely try to be GOOD.

[excel1]

1 hour ago, RiddlerXXR said:

 

 

wrong.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, excel1 said:

 

wrong.

 

 

How about this. If it makes $300M OW DOM I will never post on this site again. If it doesn't, you never post here again? 

Since you're so confident..... 

[JonahVex]

If it gets NWH type reviews from critics and A+ cinemascore, what kind of multiplier do you guys think it can pull off?

[Legion Again]

I’ll bet you $100 that it opens below 207,438,708 @excel1. The ZackM NWH bet but in reverse.

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, JonahVex said:

If it gets NWH type reviews from critics and A+ cinemascore, what kind of multiplier do you guys think it can pull off?

Like 3-3.5

[Maggie]

14 minutes ago, JonahVex said:

If it gets NWH type reviews from critics and A+ cinemascore, what kind of multiplier do you guys think it can pull off?

Actually, it depends on what kind of movie it is. Looks to be a dark film, by the trailers. I don't predict enormous legs, even with the empty March

 

Counterargument: The Joker

Edited January 10, 2022 by Maggie

[XXR vs XXR]

18 minutes ago, JonahVex said:

If it gets NWH type reviews from critics and A+ cinemascore, what kind of multiplier do you guys think it can pull off?

 

2.8x

NWH, which has NWH type reviews and A+ cinemascore and the holidays, won't even pull off a 3x. 

[Porthos]

I see some folks are getting their first genuine taste/experience with excel and Batman predictions. 👍

Edited January 10, 2022 by Porthos

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, RiddlerXXR said:

 

2.8x

NWH, which has NWH type reviews and A+ cinemascore and the holidays, won't even pull off a 3x. 

Yeah, movies are becoming very frontloaded. The Batman better have a big OW

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, Maggie said:

Yeah, movies are becoming very frontloaded. The Batman better have a big OW

 

Indeed and it's trend that will continue. The next film to break the DOM OW record will probably do 45% of it's total during OW.  

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:

 

2.8x

NWH, which has NWH type reviews and A+ cinemascore and the holidays, won't even pull off a 3x. 

NWH has a way bigger OW though, I don’t see a problem with TA-BP legs if the reception is nuts.

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I see some folks are getting their first genuine taste/experience with excel and Batman predictions. 👍

Some folks are just trying to make a quick buck 

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, Product Driven Legion said:

NWH has a way bigger OW though, I don’t see a problem with TA-BP legs if the reception is nuts.

Later legs will be cut short by streaming. I agree UNDER 3 multiplier

[Porthos]

Just now, Product Driven Legion said:

Some folks are just trying to make a quick buck 

 

Trying to make a quick buck and someone actually getting to make a quick buck are two very different things.

 

(also, preeeeety sure this board frowns on such bets, so any such thing would have to be off-board over on reddit or something like that)

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

NWH has a way bigger OW though, I don’t see a problem with TA-BP legs if the reception is nuts.

 

TFA did 3.78x with a comparatively bigger OW (at the time) and arguably weaker WOM (though still great). My new prediction for the domestic box office is no Top 10 opener will go over 3x again. 

As for this film, in theory I can see that but in practice I don't see 3x for it even if WOM is A+ level. Something about a super gritty/dark film in 2022 doesn't work as well as one might have in 2019 for instance. Maybe I'll be totally wrong 

Edited January 10, 2022 by RiddlerXXR

[Maggie]

Yeah, i too think the timing of the movie is not that great. people want something more cheerful, optimistic, colourful during these dark times.

 

Joker had the general public hyping the movie. I just don't see this Batman catching the attention of the general audience, just the hardcore fans. they are plenty, but i don't predict a big breakout

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Later legs will be cut short by streaming. I agree UNDER 3 multiplier

Streaming hasn’t done much to legs so far, especially 45 day window

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Maggie said:

Yeah, i too think the timing of the movie is not that great. people want something more cheerful, optimistic, colourful during these dark times.

 

Joker had the general public hyping the movie. I just don't see this Batman catching the attention of the general audience, just the hardcore fans. they are plenty, but i don't predict a big breakout

 

Just to clarify, I think it's going to be big but not $300M OW big. I can definitely see it match TDK/TDKR OW though. My current prediction is in the 140's. As for legs, I expect 2.4-2.7x 

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Trying to make a quick buck and someone actually getting to make a quick buck are two very different things.

Man’s gotta dream

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

(also, preeeeety sure this board frowns on such bets, so any such thing would have to be off-board over on reddit or something like that)

Oh, are they? I think my NWH bet with @ZackM was pretty widely known and I didn’t hear anything about it. But if it’s discouraged I can use wokj instead or whatever.