The Batman | March 4, 2022 | Warner Bros. | Certified Fresh on RT | 7th Most Profitable Movie of 2023

[XXR vs XXR]

34 minutes ago, 21C said:

Another interesting thing to point out from Quorum: The Batman has roughly the same or even slightly higher amount of interest/awarenesss as Spider-Man No Way Home did 2 months before release. (The Batman: 57.78% awareness, 6.58 interest, 56% willing to see it in theaters on January 3rd, 2022. Spider-Man: 52.27% awareness, 6.56 interest, 56% willing to see it in theaters on October 7th, 2021)

And the amount of interest/awareness generated from The Batman's first teaser 1 month after its posting was significantly higher than the interest of Spider-Man No Way Home's 1 month after its posting. (The Batman: 63% awareness, 7.05 interest, 49% willing to see it in theaters on September 17th 2020. Spider-Man: 53.85% awareness, 6.44 interest, 53% willing to see it in theaters on September 21st, 2021)

Maybe WB isn't stupid for thinking they have a Spidey-level event in their hands, it's literally what the data is telling them.

Definitely don’t read too much into this, unless you think Hotel Transylvania 4 would make more than Thor 4 or Black Panther 2 at the box office also…. 

[peludo]

2 minutes ago, cax16 said:

I’ll take half of NWH current box office as a total for the Batman and be super happy. 

Same here. I wish it could beat NWH, but to think in magical numbers being a so dark film is absurd. 300-350 DOM and 700-750 WW would be a very good result.

[21C]

Just now, RiddlerXXR said:

Definitely don’t read too much into this, unless you think Hotel Transylvania 4 would make more than Thor 4 or Black Panther 2 at the box office also…. 

I think the disparity in those numbers is mostly because Thor 4 and Black Panther 2's marketing hasn't started yet.

[cax16]

1 minute ago, peludo said:

Same here. I wish it could beat NWH, but to think in magical numbers being a so dark film is absurd. 300-350 DOM and 700-750 WW would be a very good result.

Agreed. I’d like it do a ton but as I continually say with dc movies, they’re building back the GA trust and it’s gonna take a while, so just keep making solid movies and you’ll be fine. 

[XXR vs XXR]

7 minutes ago, cax16 said:

I’ll take half of NWH current box office as a total for the Batman and be super happy. 

I think $300-350M DOM and $450-550M OS-C is a good target. Below that is lackluster and above that is gravy.

[cax16]

Just now, RiddlerXXR said:

I think $300-350M DOM and $450-550M OS-C is a good target. Below that is lackluster and above that is gravy.

I don’t expect that much but I’d be very happy with it. You definitely could be right though and I hope you are. There’s a lot of baggage attached to these movies and even though this isn’t technically part of the dceu I don’t know how the GA views it. 

[cax16]

Like honestly I don’t expect any DC movie coming out this year to do more then 350–450m(minus the Batman that is) they’re basically starting from scratch now and the movies this year are new characters and ones the GA has no attachment too. 

Edited January 5, 2022 by cax16

[21C]

1 minute ago, peludo said:

Same here. I wish it could beat NWH, but to think in magical numbers being a so dark film is absurd. 300-350 DOM and 700-750 WW would be a very good result.

Would you have said the same thing about Joker? I think a billion is extremely plausible and would be a certainty if not for COVID.

[XXR vs XXR]

7 minutes ago, cax16 said:

I don’t expect that much but I’d be very happy with it. You definitely could be right though and I hope you are. There’s a lot of baggage attached to these movies and even though this isn’t technically part of the dceu I don’t know how the GA views it. 

Ehh I don’t think there’s any more baggage on this than The Joker. The tone and setting are very different than recent iterations, ala The Joker, and the GA isn’t quite as dumb as people tend to think lol. 
 

If this is good (that’s the main assumption) I can’t see it coming in below $300M DOM. OS-C is tougher to prognosticate but Joker did $739M. All I’m asking for is about 65% of that lol

Edited January 5, 2022 by RiddlerXXR

[JonahVex]

6 minutes ago, cax16 said:

Like honestly I don’t expect any DC movie coming out this year to do more then 350–450m(minus the Batman that is) they’re basically starting from scratch now and the movies this year are new characters and ones the GA has no attachment too. 

Not even aquaman which made over $1.1 bil after the JL fiasco

[Eric Duncan]

12 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:

Definitely don’t read too much into this, unless you think Hotel Transylvania 4 would make more than Thor 4 or Black Panther 2 at the box office also…. 

Well it's not even playing in theaters.

 

And even then, is it really hard to think that awareness would be stronger, at this specific point in time, because that's what they are tracking, for a movie that's debuting in a little more than a week than two films that barely have a sliver of marketing?

[21C]

1 minute ago, Eric Smith said:

Well it's not even playing in theaters.

 

And even then, is it really hard to think that awareness would be stronger, at this specific point in time, because that's what they are tracking, for a movie that's debuting in a little more than a week than two films that barely have a sliver of marketing?

Yeah I definitely think that specific top spot is to be taken with a grain of salt (although I'd say it's really really impressive for Spider-Verse to be that high) but the thing that strikes me as more interesting is the Spider-Man comparison numbers. It won't do as much as Spidey because Spider-Man benefitted a lot from the inclusions of you-know-who but it is encouraging for those of us that think this can make a billion or get close to it. 

[cax16]

7 minutes ago, JonahVex said:

Not even aquaman which made over $1.1 bil after the JL fiasco

I think Aquaman will get delayed tbh, but if it releases at Xmas with avatar I’d expect like 500-700m

[cax16]

19 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:

Ehh I don’t think there’s any more baggage on this than The Joker. The tone and setting are very different than recent iterations, ala The Joker, and the GA isn’t quite as dumb as people tend to think lol. 
 

If this is good (that’s the main assumption) I can’t see it coming in below $300M DOM. OS-C is tougher to prognosticate but Joker did $739M. All I’m asking for is about 65% of that lol

I just think the joker looked way different and people could associate this will the current dceu films. But I still think this will do well. And as long as the other releases Are good this year they can build off those for next years box office. 

Edited January 5, 2022 by cax16

[XXR vs XXR]

10 minutes ago, Eric Smith said:

Well it's not even playing in theaters.

 

And even then, is it really hard to think that awareness would be stronger, at this specific point in time, because that's what they are tracking, for a movie that's debuting in a little more than a week than two films that barely have a sliver of marketing?

Touche lol 

 

My main point is we know this “awareness” stuff is even a few levels below trailer views in terms of translating to the box office, so just to be careful when comparing metrics even if they look similar. The numbers 21C put out shows that at the same time (before release), the Batman is ahead of NWH in these metrics but does anyone think it’s going to open to $260M or do $730M DOM? Nah. Well maybe one person 😅

[cax16]

I should probably get “damaged” tattooed across my forehead like Leto cause that’s how I feel when it comes to predicting DC box office numbers since JL came out. 

[Maggie]

All sings point to a healthy BO for The Batman. Top Gun 2 is in danger tho, high awareness, but little interest.

[keysersoze123]

Batman is not that popular in OS markets. At height of Nolan trilogy, TDKR grossed tad under 650m(of course without 3D). This with uncertain environment 400m OS would be good. Domestic 250m+ is great. what is more important is the reception. If that is strong, sequel will have much bigger potential. 

[Eric Duncan]

1 hour ago, RiddlerXXR said:

Touche lol 

 

My main point is we know this “awareness” stuff is even a few levels below trailer views in terms of translating to the box office, so just to be careful when comparing metrics even if they look similar. The numbers 21C put out shows that at the same time (before release), the Batman is ahead of NWH in these metrics but does anyone think it’s going to open to $260M or do $730M DOM? Nah. Well maybe one person 😅

Well yeah, but nobody is expecting that. There's nobody saying "Batman's awareness is on the level of Spider-Man, therefore it'll make as much as Spider-Man". The only person doing this is CJohn, and it's debatable if he's really a person. Like with every tracking source, people understand outside circumstances and that comparisons aren't 1:1. Still, Quorum does indicate people know Batman is coming out and a lot of people are excited for it.

 

57 minutes ago, Maggie said:

All sings point to a healthy BO for The Batman. Top Gun 2 is in danger tho, high awareness, but little interest.

Did Joseph Kosinski piss on your porch or something?  You keep saying TG2's gonna be this epic failure.

[Maggie]

3 minutes ago, Eric Smith said:

 

 

Did Joseph Kosinski piss on your porch or something?  You keep saying TG2's gonna be this epic failure.

lol no. I actually like him, but signs point to an underperformance. hope i'm wrong