PAPA NOLAN's TENƎꓕ International Thread. Weekend 5 $16.2mn / $243.7mn Total

[charlie Jatinder]

Presales: China has $1.1mn including $670k for opening day. Russia $65k including $38k OD.

Edited September 1, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

37mn Europe & ME should leg to $155mn Approx.

 

ANZ should perhaps $13-15mn.

Korea $13-15mn

Taiwan $9mn

South East Asia $8mn

 

Overall this frame should give $200mn Approx.

 

In next weekend of releases, China I still feel can reach $100mn. Russia perhaps $10-15mn. 

 

Over next Middle East + Hong Kong should hit $10mn.

 

That gives $320-325mn Approx, without Japan, India, Latin America and Indonesia-Philippines.

 

Don't know what to expect from Latin America, but India, Japan & Indo can give around $30-35mn. Dunkirk & Interstellar did some $20mn in Latin America. 

 

So $370-375mn Approx internationally. Domestically $100mn seems certain. 

 

This has solid chance at hitting $500mn. Korea has disappointed big time, if it had delivered 500mn was locked.

 

[Borobudur]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

37mn Europe & ME should leg to $155mn Approx.

 

ANZ should perhaps $13-15mn.

Korea $13-15mn

Taiwan $9mn

South East Asia $8mn

 

Overall this frame should give $200mn Approx.

 

In next weekend of releases, China I still feel can reach $100mn. Russia perhaps $10-15mn. 

 

Over next Middle East + Hong Kong should hit $10mn.

 

That gives $320-325mn Approx, without Japan, India, Latin America and Indonesia-Philippines.

 

Don't know what to expect from Latin America, but India, Japan & Indo can give around $30-35mn. Dunkirk & Interstellar did some $20mn in Latin America. 

 

So $370-375mn Approx internationally. Domestically $100mn seems certain. 

 

This has solid chance at hitting $500mn. Korea has disappointed big time, if it had delivered 500mn was locked.

 

If this movie hit 500m worldwide, how can domestic only have 100m? that was only 20% of the worldwide gross. It is unusual low for a Nolan film. Even interstellar has about 27% domestic share.

[john2000]

5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

37mn Europe & ME should leg to $155mn Approx.

 

ANZ should perhaps $13-15mn.

Korea $13-15mn

Taiwan $9mn

South East Asia $8mn

 

Overall this frame should give $200mn Approx.

 

In next weekend of releases, China I still feel can reach $100mn. Russia perhaps $10-15mn. 

 

Over next Middle East + Hong Kong should hit $10mn.

 

That gives $320-325mn Approx, without Japan, India, Latin America and Indonesia-Philippines.

 

Don't know what to expect from Latin America, but India, Japan & Indo can give around $30-35mn. Dunkirk & Interstellar did some $20mn in Latin America. 

 

So $370-375mn Approx internationally. Domestically $100mn seems certain. 

 

This has solid chance at hitting $500mn. Korea has disappointed big time, if it had delivered 500mn was locked.

 

100 million dom, will be with new york etc or from the states that have movie theaters open right now

?

[john2000]

some potential good news us for 15 straight days has seen an overall decline in cases still has many cases but the range now is   35-48k    as opposed of 50-75k 15 days before hopefully this trend continues yesterday us had 34 k cases

Edited August 31, 2020 by john2000

[Jamiem]

Solid start, a little better than I was expecting despite SK going a bit lower for reasons outside of Tenets control. I think 2nd weekend drop (hopefully it’s a small 30-40% drop) will be important and Warner and the other studios will be watching that and the domestic opening very closely to decide what they do with their big $150m+ films going forward in the short term (keep them for this year or push them back into next year.) 

[RealLyre]

500M+ gross for Tenet is great for theaters as it shows consumer confidence in going back to cinemas. but Tenet's break even point was 800M iirc so it's still a bit far off from being a financial success i guess 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

but Tenet's break even point was 800M

No way, especially since it has better theater terms.

 

550-600mn would have been fine for the film, now 400-450 is enough, assuming VOD sales will be bigger than normal few months later 

[Joel M]

1 hour ago, RealLyre said:

but Tenet's break even point was 800M iirc so it's still a bit far off from being a financial success i guess 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

No way, especially since it has better theater terms.

 

550-600mn would have been fine for the film, now 400-450 is enough, assuming VOD sales will be bigger than normal few months later 

 

Don't know what trade circulated that 800m number but it sounds like some Deadline bullshit. Budget+Marketing+Prints+CEO's Wife vacation and the movie has to made double that in theatres to break even.

[charlie Jatinder]

Netherlands opening weekend €1,574,805. Including previews €1,781,569. Excellent.

 

Switzerland $1.08mn weekend.

 

Edited August 31, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[Cooper Legion]

500 would be a pretty big success under the circumstances imo. I’m targeting more like 420 for now (which would also be a solid result), but picture will be much clearer in 7 days.

[charlie Jatinder]

Next two weeks will decide whether Wonder Woman 1984 release by November or not. Europe has given big numbers but WW 84 need Latin & North America continent more than Europe.

What do I think? No, most likely.

[john2000]

19 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Next two weeks will decide whether Wonder Woman 1984 release by October or not. Europe has given big numbers but WW 84 need Latin & North America continent more than Europe.

What do I think? No, most likely.

longer than that at least for dom, asia and europe are fine, australia , canada too, as for latin america if brazil and mexico deliver that would be enough, so you only need us to perform which even though will not be easy, it for sure as hell take more than 2 weeks to see its fully potential, i reckon, that by tenet 3rd weekend we will be able to even make a prediction abouts its dom final haul, also wonderwoman indeed will need dom than os, it will not be like say black widow , or the general mcu movies that while have very good dom haul their os total are very very big, at the same time there is a very good potential that new york along with some california counties and some other states will be open by the end of sept, especially if the covid cases in the us keep being steady and declining

Edited August 31, 2020 by john2000

[john2000]

@charlie Jatinder will you be able to give an estimation about tenet os dailies ?

Edited August 31, 2020 by john2000

[titanic2187]

3 hours ago, RealLyre said:

500M+ gross for Tenet is great for theaters as it shows consumer confidence in going back to cinemas. but Tenet's break even point was 800M iirc so it's still a bit far off from being a financial success i guess 

 

 

I seriously doubt that 800m breaking even point. Both A star is born and joker have about 110-120m P&A, which was substantially inflated by their Oscar campaign. I doubt Tenet P&A can be much higher than those figure from ASIB and Joker since majority of the outdoor events got cancelled. 

 

Lastly, WB demand 63% of the box office share in USA, which could offset further the cost. Unless china made 50% of the gross, the 800m point is highly unlikely, 600m-650m is a more reasonable range. 

[john2000]

SAN DIEGO COUNTY, Calif. — Starting Monday, businesses including movie theaters, gyms, museums and hair and nail salons can resume indoor operations, with modifications, under newly issued state guidance related to the coronavirus pandemic.

Restaurants, places of worship and movie theaters can reopen indoor operations Monday, but are only allowed up to 25% occupancy or 100 people -- whichever is less. Museums, zoos and aquariums are also required not to exceed 25% occupancy.

[RJ 95]

 

Revised for OWeek $53.6m, only going down 0.1m in UK and up by 0.1m too in France

 

For France admission detail :

 

 

111.3k in previews, 125k OD and 573k Thu-Sun

Edited August 31, 2020 by RJ 95

[john2000]

some good news 

 

 

https://deadline.com/2020/08/new-jersey-movie-theaters-reopen-friday-governor-says-1203027615/

[keysersoze123]

50 minutes ago, john2000 said:

some good news 

 

 

https://deadline.com/2020/08/new-jersey-movie-theaters-reopen-friday-governor-says-1203027615/

It could get some boost from NY folks going across to see the movies. But theaters in NYC need to open for a big boost and I doubt Cuomo will take the risk at this point. 

[redfirebird2008]

18 hours ago, Borobudur said:

If this movie hit 500m worldwide, how can domestic only have 100m? that was only 20% of the worldwide gross. It is unusual low for a Nolan film. Even interstellar has about 27% domestic share.

 

America has a bigger problem with the virus than other countries right now. So it would not be at all shocking if America only covers 20% of the total box office.