WrathOfHan Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 (edited) Actually fuck it, here are predictions for every category before the festivals begin Spoiler Picture: 1. The Power of the Dog 2. Dune 3. Nightmare Alley 4. Don't Look Up 5. House of Gucci 6. Soggy Bottom 7. The Tragedy of Macbeth 8. The Lost Daughter 9. Last Night in Soho 10. Parallel Mothers Alt: West Side Story Director: 1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune 2. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley 3. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog 4. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci 5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom Alt: Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers Actor: 1. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog 2. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth 3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don't Look Up 4. Will Smith, King Richard 5. Timothee Chalamet, Dune Alt: Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley Actress: 1. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci 2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter 3. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth 4. Jennifer Lawrence, Don't Look Up 5. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers Alt: Jodie Comer, The Last Duel Supporting Actor: 1. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog 2. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom 3. Nightmare Alley Actor (Dafoe?) 4. Nightmare Alley Actor (Jenkins?) 5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci Alt: Jason Isaacs, Mass Supporting Actress: 1. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog 2. Nightmare Alley Actress (Collette?) 3. Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho 4. Meryl Streep, Don't Look Up 5. Dakota Johnson, The Lost Daughter Alt: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story Original Screenplay: 1. Soggy Bottom 2. Don't Look Up 3. Last Night in Soho 4. Parallel Mothers 5. The Hand of God Alt: Mass Adapted Screenplay: 1. The Power of the Dog 2. Dune 3. Nightmare Alley 4. The Lost Daughter 5. The Tragedy of Macbeth Alt: House of Gucci International: 1. Parallel Mothers 2. The Hand of God 3. A Hero 4. Compartment No. 6 5. The Worst Person in the World Alt: Drive My Car Animated: 1. Luca 2. Flee 3. Encanto 4. The Mitchells vs the Machines 5. Belle Alt: My Best Friend Anne Frank Documentary: 1. Flee 2. Misha and the Wolves 3. A Night of Knowing Nothing 4. Marx Can Wait 5. The Sparks Brothers Alt: Seaspiracy Cinematography: 1. Dune 2. The Tragedy of Macbeth 3. Nightmare Alley 4. The Hand of God 5. Last Night in Soho Alt: The Power of the Dog Editing: 1. Dune 2. Don't Look Up 3. The Power of the Dog 4. House of Gucci 5. Last Night in Soho Alt: Top Gun: Maverick Production Design: 1. Dune 2. Nightmare Alley 3. The Tragedy of Macbeth 4. Last Night in Soho 5. Soggy Bottom Alt: West Side Story Costume Design: 1. Cruella 2. Dune 3. The Tragedy of Macbeth 4. Nightmare Alley 5. The Power of the Dog Alt: House of Gucci Makeup and Hairstyling: 1. House of Gucci 2. Cruella 3. Dune 4. Soggy Bottom 5. Last Night in Soho Alt: Old Score: 1. Dune 2. The Power of the Dog 3. Don't Look Up 4. Nightmare Alley 5. Last Night in Soho Alt: The French Dispatch Song: 1. No Time to Die, No Time to Die 2. Encanto 3. Don't Look Up 4. Top Gun: Maverick 5. So May We Start, Annette Alt: Dear Evan Hansen Visual Effects: 1. Dune 2. Top Gun: Maverick 3. Eternals 4. Don't Look Up 5. No Time to Die Alt: Spider-Man: No Way Home Sound: 1. Dune 2. Top Gun: Maverick 3. No Time to Die 4. Nightmare Alley 5. A Quiet Place Part II Alt: Last Night in Soho 12: Dune (Picture, Director, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup, Score, Visual Effects, Sound) 11: Nightmare Alley (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor x2, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, Score, Sound) 9: Don't Look Up (Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing, Score, Song, Visual Effects) The Power of the Dog (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Costume Design, Score) 8: Last Night in Soho (Picture, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Makeup, Score) 7: The Tragedy of Macbeth (Picture, Actor, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design) 6: House of Gucci (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Editing, Makeup) Soggy Bottom (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Makeup) 4: The Lost Daughter (Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay) Parallel Mothers (Picture, Actress, Original Screenplay, International) 3: The Hand of God (Original Screenplay, International, Cinematography) No Time to Die (Song, Visual Effects, Sound) Top Gun: Maverick (Song, Visual Effects, Sound) 2: Cruella (Costume Design, Makeup) Encanto (Animated, Song) Flee (Documentary, Animated) Power of the Dog vs Dune is the mounting narrative going into the festivals, and I'd say these predictions are somewhat rooted in that. As it stands, those two films account for wins in 12/23 categories; the only other movie I have with multiple wins is House of Gucci. 7 wins for Dune would be the largest haul since Gravity 8 years ago (swap the extra sound win for PD in this case). I have a feeling this isn't going to be a spread the wealth year at the moment. I have 5/10 BP nominees taking home nothing, and if I dropped Parallel Mothers for West Side Story, that would be up to 6/10. If my prediction for Nightmare Alley holds (unlikely), it'd break the record for most nominations without a win. Edited August 24, 2021 by WrathOfHan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 (edited) Not enough Worst Person in the World in here. Seems like it's the most crowd pleasing of all the foreign language films this year. The Hand of God feels like a maybe strong contender too because of the really powerful narrative behind it. Edited August 24, 2021 by lorddemaxus 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Dates for first critical reactions to from Venice this week: Wed 9/1: Parallel Mothers The Power of the Dog Thurs 9/2: The Card Counter The Hand of God The Lost Daughter Fri 9/3: Dune Il Buco Spencer Sat 9/4: Last Night in Soho Official Competition Sundown — Will Mavity (@mavericksmovies) August 29, 2021 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Hearing that Telluride is stealing Belfast's world premiere status from TIFF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said: Hearing that Telluride is stealing Belfast's world premiere status from TIFF. I’m really nervous of that film lol. Branagh’s track record sucks now but I can see that being the Oscar bait movie of the year. If he actually pulls off a Screenplay win over PTA, ugh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 3 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said: If he actually pulls off a Screenplay win over PTA It's September. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Telluride slate has been announced. Tomorrow's premieres are Cyrano, C'mon C'mon, Belfast, The electric Life of Louis Wain, and King Richard. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 (edited) 9 hours ago, Jake Gittes said: It's September. And? Telluride is a great indicator for BP and if Belfast gets raved there, that implies it’s a major film Edited September 1, 2021 by BestPicturePlutoNash Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Penciling in Madres Paralelas for Actress (maybe Picture, but waiting to see how Hand of God is received). Power of the Dog might be divisive based on some early rumblings, but not going to say anything more until more reactions come out or even better, when the review embargo lifts tomorrow so that I don't look like an idiot lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 (edited) 8 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said: Penciling in Madres Paralelas for Actress (maybe Picture, but waiting to see how Hand of God is received). Power of the Dog might be divisive based on some early rumblings, but not going to say anything more until more reactions come out or even better, when the review embargo lifts tomorrow so that I don't look like an idiot lol. I still think reviews will be good and the festival rollout is a good sign, but I still always laughed at everyone believing a Jane Campion movie would be a major contender. She hasn’t had an Oscar hit since Piano! in the Cut was an F cinemascore Edited September 1, 2021 by BestPicturePlutoNash 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said: I still think reviews will be good and the festival rollout is a good sign, but I still always laughed at everyone believing a Jane Campion movie would be a major contender. She hasn’t had an Oscar hit since Piano! Yeah, and reading some of the plot of the source material itself made me think that this would be more In the Cut Campion (cold, sensual in a creepy way, and messy) than something like The Piano. Edited September 1, 2021 by lorddemaxus 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoxOfficeFangrl Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said: Power of the Dog might be divisive based on some early rumblings, but not going to say anything more until more reactions come out or even better, when the review embargo lifts tomorrow so that I don't look like an idiot lol. Last week I was listening to the Vanity Fair awards podcast and one of them had seen it already and maybe he was trying to be neutral but he sounded kind of guarded in his comments. I read the plot summary and could already picture the thinkpieces, plus the "In 2021, shouldn't this be played by an openly gay actor?" debate. It's Netflix, so there won't be any box office as a counterpoint to criticisms, and I doubt it will hang around the Top 10 chart for weeks with all the original rom-coms and Cocomelon. A problem with streaming movies in an awards race has been the lack of lingering cultural impact and even Netflix will be on to another contender before December is out. I'm not saying it’s doomed but voters will have a lot of easier (for them) options. Edited September 1, 2021 by BoxOfficeFangrl 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 1 hour ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said: And? Telluride is a great indicator for BP and if Belfast gets raved there, that implies it’s a major film That has nothing to do with whether it can or will win best screenplay over another movie that no one has seen yet and whether that's going to be a good thing or not if it happens. Just seems particularly strange to already "ugh" about something so completely hypothetical. As for Campion, I got the impression people were banking on/rooting for this being her BlacKkKlansman-esque high-profile movie comeback. No big surprise if it turns out more divisive than that though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Just now, Jake Gittes said: That has nothing to do with whether it can or will win best screenplay over another movie that no one has seen yet and whether that's going to be a good thing or not if it happens. Just seems particularly strange to already "ugh" about something so completely hypothetical. As for Campion, I got the impression people were banking on/rooting for this being her BlacKkKlansman-esque high-profile movie comeback. No big surprise if it turns out more divisive than that though. PTA's movie has been screening for awhile, actually. He's one of my favorite directors, consistently nominated and has never won. Branagh's film sounds like a snooze and he's directed terrible movies his entire life. I feel like an "ugh" about the very plausible potential of having an Oscar juggernaut is perfectly valid. Feels like the basic Oscar bait of the year-Green Book, Trial of Chicago 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 (edited) tfw Parallel Mothers might be a more viable contender than Power of the Dog Edited September 1, 2021 by WrathOfHan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 I'd wait on the Power of Dog burying until tomorrow. Kenneth Branagh directed Dead Again. That's a great movie. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Power of the Dog feels like The Master. Telluride critics will probably dislike it if it's polarizing the Venice crowd 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said: I'd wait on the Power of Dog burying until tomorrow. Kenneth Branagh directed Dead Again. That's a great movie. Branagh has directed his share of clunkers, no denying that. But I cannot dismiss offhandedly a film from the guy who did Henry V, Dead Again, Much Ado About Nothing, and Hamlet. I just want him to get in the right frame of mind and zone so he can finally tackle King Lear 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 Amazon set a Jan 7th theatrical release date for Farhadi's A Hero. There's no way they aren't giving this a qualifying run right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 26 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said: Amazon set a Jan 7th theatrical release date for Farhadi's A Hero. There's no way they aren't giving this a qualifying run right? They'll find a way for it to qualify, somehow, someway. There's plenty of time for them to figure something out. They might release it in four theaters a week or two before the 7th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...