Best Picture Predictions - 2021

[lorddemaxus]

Surprised not hearing more people talking about this because I feel like it's big, shitty news but digital fest screenings are now dead right?

[WrathOfHan]

5 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Surprised not hearing more people talking about this because I feel like it's big, shitty news but digital fest screenings are now dead right?

Sundance is still doing digital in a few months with delayed online premieres. That's probably the last one though.

[WrathOfHan]

Updated full predicts post-September festivals:

Spoiler

 

Picture:

 

1. Licorice Pizza

2. Nightmare Alley

3. Belfast

4. The Power of the Dog

5. Spencer

6. House of Gucci

7. Dune

8. Parallel Mothers

9. Don't Look Up

10. The Tragedy of Macbeth
Alt: King Richard

 

Director:

 

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

2. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley

3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

4. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

5. Denis Villeneuve, Dune

Alt: Ridley Scott, House of Gucci

 

Actor:

 

1. Will Smith, King Richard

2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

3. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano

4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

5. Joaquin Phoenix, C'mon C'mon

Alt: Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley

 

Actress:

 

1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer

2. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

4. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

5. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Alt: Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza

2. Jamie Dornan, Belfast

3. Richard Jenkins, The Humans

4. Nightmare Alley Actor (Dafoe?)

5. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Alt: Jared Leto, House of Gucci

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

2. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

3. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel

4. Nightmare Alley Actress (Collette?)

5. Jane Houdyshell, The Humans

Alt: Meryl Streep, Don't Look Up

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. Licorice Pizza

2. Don't Look Up

3. Belfast

4. Parallel Mothers

5. Spencer

Alt: C'mon C'mon

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. The Power of the Dog

2. Nightmare Alley

3. The Lost Daughter

4. The Humans

5. The Tragedy of Macbeth

Alt: House of Gucci

 

International Feature:

 

1. Parallel Mothers

2. A Hero

3. The Hand of God

4. Happening

5. Compartment No. 6

Alt: Flee

 

Documentary Feature:

 

1. Flee

2. A Cop Movie

3. A Night of Knowing Nothing

4. Pray Away

5. Seaspiracy

Alt: Misha and the Wolves

 

Animated Feature:

 

1. Luca

2. Flee

3. Encanto

4. Belle

5. The Mitchells vs. The Machines

Alt: Where Is Anne Frank

 

Cinematography:

 

1. Dune

2. Belfast

3. The Tragedy of Macbeth

4. Nightmare Alley

5. The Power of the Dog

Alt: The Last Duel

 

Editing:

 

1. Dune

2. House of Gucci

3. Licorice Pizza

4. Don't Look Up

5. The Power of the Dog

Alt: Belfast

 

Production Design:

 

1. Dune

2. Nightmare Alley

3. The Last Duel

4. The Tragedy of Macbeth

5. Licorice Pizza

Alt: Belfast

 

Costume Design:

 

1. Cruella

2. Nightmare Alley

3. Spencer

4. The Power of the Dog

5. Cyrano

Alt: House of Gucci

 

Makeup:

 

1. House of Gucci

2. Cruella

3. Dune

4. Nightmare Alley 

5. The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Alt: Cyrano

 

Song:

 

1. No Time to Die, No Time to Die

2. Be Alive, King Richard

3. Don't Look Up

4. Encanto

5. Here I Am, Respect

Alt: Footprints, Joe Bell

 

Score:

 

1. Dune

2. The Power of the Dog

3. Spencer

4. Nightmare Alley

5. Don't Look Up

Alt: The French Dispatch

 

Visual Effects:

 

1. Dune

2. Eternals

3. Don't Look Up

4. Free Guy

5. No Time to Die

Alt: Spider-Man: No Way Home

 

Sound:

 

1. Dune

2. Nightmare Alley

3. The Last Duel

4. Don't Look Up

5. No Time to Die

Alt: Belfast

 

 

Nomination count:

Spoiler

 

11x:

Nightmare Alley (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup, Score, Sound)

 

10x:

The Power of the Dog (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Costume Design, Score)

 

9x:

Dune (Picture, Director, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Makeup, Score, Visual Effects, Sound)

 

7x:

Belfast (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Sound)

Don't Look Up (Picture, Original Screenplay, Editing, Song, Score, Visual Effects, Sound)

 

6x:

Licorice Pizza (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing, Production Design)

 

5x:

Spencer (Picture, Actress, Original Screenplay, Costume Design, Score)

The Tragedy of Macbeth (Picture, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design)

 

4x:

Parallel Mothers (Picture, Actress, Original Screenplay, International Feature)

 

3x:

House of Gucci (Picture, Actress, Makeup)

The Humans (Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay)

The Last Duel (Supporting Actress, Production Design, Sound)

No Time to Die (Song, Visual Effects, Sound)

 

2x:

Cruella (Costume Design, Makeup)

Cyrano (Actor, Costume Design)

Encanto (Animated, Song)

The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Actress, Makeup)

Flee (Documentary, Animated)

King Richard (Actor, Song)

The Lost Daughter (Actress, Adapted Screenplay)

 

 

Maybe this is finally PTA's year? I don't think anything that's premiered so far could be a Picture winner (Belfast is Roma-lite and Power of the Dog will probably turn off some older voters).

 

Focus will be absolutely dumb if they don't place Dornan and Balfe in supporting.

 

Spencer could be a repeat of Jackie with only Picture, Costumes, and Score. I have it as my last spot in Screenplay and fifth in Picture, but the parallels are there.

 

I can see a scenario where Comer gets into Supporting Actress a la LaKeith Stanfield if 20th Century keeps her lead. It'd be a better strategy to put her in Supporting since it's looking much less crowded than Actress.

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I think it's PTA, too. Belfast could do it, sure, but yeah it's Roma-lite and besides Green Book, these types of movies haven't won much lately. Green Book was a real fluke. You'd have to go back to King's Speech but that was a major all around contender. And I think King Richard still bleeds into the crowdpleaser slot. That is more or less a guarantee to win Actor and will have much more media attention for being about the Williams sisters. 

 

GDT just won for Shape of Water so Nightmare Alley won't have much urgency to be rewarded. Maybe Screenplay? Power of the Dog will indeed be too alienating. McKay has already won a Screenplay Oscar recently and Don't Look Up won't match the success of Big Short since it was so fresh. This film looks more comedic and his style has become divisive which isn't good for wins (Vice). 

[chaos]

Its not happening but I think it could be DUNE - This movie feels a lot like Titanic or ROTK ..

Epic in every  way with outstanding acting, from all contributors - especially Rebecca Ferguson and Timothee C.

 

I think Hollywood wants some "mainstreamy" Oscar winner this time

 

 

[SLAM!]

10 hours ago, chaos said:

Its not happening but I think it could be DUNE - This movie feels a lot like Titanic or ROTK ..

Epic in every  way with outstanding acting, from all contributors - especially Rebecca Ferguson and Timothee C.

 

I think Hollywood wants some "mainstreamy" Oscar winner this time

 

 

 

I so, so, so, so, SO want Dune to happen somehow, someway. I think it will depend not only on the success of the film, but also on the accessibility of other Best Picture candidates. This is a very strange year where there aren't many films that feel like Best Picture frontrunners (at least not yet), so even if some festival critics are cautious, I think Dune's chances aren't entirely extinguished.

 

I also think that Dune will benefit from being the clear frontrunner in many technical categories including Sound, Visual Effects, and Original Score. That amount of attention on its technical aspects is going to put even more focus on the film and should at least help the film get nominated.

[WrathOfHan]

Belfast won TIFF People's Choice with Scarborough and Power of the Dog in the top 3. 

Edited September 19, 2021 by WrathOfHan

[lorddemaxus]

It's all gonna be forgotten when no one ends up giving a shit about Belfast and it makes like $1 million on its opening weekend.

[WrathOfHan]

19 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

It's all gonna be forgotten when no one ends up giving a shit about Belfast and it makes like $1 million on its opening weekend.

13/21 TIFF winners this millennium have gotten BP nominations, and they're running a streak of 9 nominated films right now.

 

Looking further, the only four English-language winners this millennium that didn't go on to get a BP nomination were Eastern Promises (Actor nom), Bella, Hotel Rwanda (Actor, Supporting Actress, and Screenplay noms), and Whale Rider (Actress nom). The only three winners without Oscar nominations were Where Do We Go Now, Bella, and Zatoichi, 2/3 of which were international films.

 

Even if Belfast doesn't end up winning picture or isn't nominated there, I find it hard to believe it will be forgotten.

Edited September 19, 2021 by WrathOfHan

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I still believe this is perfect year for PTA. If he can't win this year with a fun accessible movie that already has hype for a trailer... he never will. And a latebreaker will win again.. Revenant and 1917 were close. I don't think Belfast is that level of a consensus choice (Spotlight, Parasite)

[lorddemaxus]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

15/21 TIFF winners this millennium have gotten BP nominations, and they're running a streak of 9 nominated films right now.

 

Looking further, the only four English-language winners this millennium that didn't go on to get a BP nomination were Eastern Promises (Actor nom), Bella, Hotel Rwanda (Actor, Supporting Actress, and Screenplay noms), and Whale Rider (Actress nom). The only three winners without Oscar nominations were Where Do We Go Now, Bella, and Zatoichi, 2/3 of which were international films.

 

Even if Belfast doesn't end up winning picture or isn't nominated there, I find it hard to believe it will be forgotten.

It think it's getting nominated but I'm saying general audiences aren't gonna go care to watch a black and white movie set in Northern Ireland. This is gonna be like Jojo Rabbit where I think it'll win Screenplay, but not the crowdpleasing hit needed to win BP if it's going the Green Book route.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Post-Venice/Telluride/TIFF BP predictions:

 

Belfast

Don't Look Up

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Nightmare Alley

Power of the Dog

West Side Story

 

Last 3 are tricky:

Dune- is it safe?

Macbeth- Coen + Denzel + McDormand

 

Worst Person in the World needed a TIFF slot. I think Spencer will prove alienating to audiences. Cmon Cmon feels very small. Almodovar's film will need to become the big foreign contender. Gucci feels like a flop. Does CODA have any remaining buzz?

[WrathOfHan]

I feel like there are two conditions Belfast needs to win Picture:

 

1. All the unseen contenders (Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, Macbeth, Gucci, Don't Look Up, WSS) either match Belfast's reception or are duds

2. Sentiment around Netflix is still muddled enough for a Power of the Dog (or Don't Look Up) win

 

At that point I'm guessing the race would boil down to Belfast vs Dune, but I'm still going with one of the unseen contenders as this year's winner. If this scenario somehow happens, I'd go with Dune for the win.

 

I'm looking forward to Macbeth's premiere in 6 days so we'll know if it's a factor or not.

Edited September 19, 2021 by WrathOfHan

[filmlover]

Belfast is pretty much safe for a nomination at this point. It checks off plenty of boxes for many Academy members.

 

The Power of the Dog is looking to be pretty good too. Quite frankly of all the movies that have been seen so far those two feel like strong Top 5 contenders.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

Belfast will have to deal with the frontrunner backlash - I already see tweets calling it "White Roma". Film Twitter backlash doesn't stop a film from winning it all, though. I wonder about the box office-the prestige audience is the most reluctant to return to theaters, but how many hits will there even be in this climate? 

 

Recently it's seemed like anything too popular at the box office had no chance to win Best Picture, but with how upset a lot of industry heavyweights feel about streaming, maybe voters will rally around the biggest theatrical hit to send a message? 

 

[filmlover]

20 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Belfast will have to deal with the frontrunner backlash - I already see tweets calling it "White Roma". Film Twitter backlash doesn't stop a film from winning it all, though. I wonder about the box office-the prestige audience is the most reluctant to return to theaters, but how many hits will there even be in this climate? 

 

Recently it's seemed like anything too popular at the box office had no chance to win Best Picture, but with how upset a lot of industry heavyweights feel about streaming, maybe voters will rally around the biggest theatrical hit to send a message? 

 

With how much the headlines about "dwindling ratings" and "#OscarsSoIrrelevant" were dominating the news during the days following the ceremony even before COVID and how those clearly haven't gone unnoticed by the producers (to the point where they completely changed up decades of tradition at the most recent ceremony to accommodate what they perceived would be their biggest headline of the night, only for that to blow up in their faces), I wouldn't be surprised if they were actually considering reviving the idea of the Popular Oscar in the event nothing up for Best Picture really catches on in theaters.

[Ethan Hunt]

I really really do not think Dune can win lol. of things that have already premiered Belfasr,Power of the Dog, and King Richard, and hell even Spencer seem like more likely winners to me

[Cmasterclay]

Belfast seems an obvious nominee but that could be about it. Weirdly, I think Power of the Dog finishing top three despite being such a challenging piece at the populist Toronto People's Choice Award is almost a bigger sign than Belfast winning.

 

We have never had this many sight unseen contenders at this point. In 2019, Irishman and 1917 were only publicly unseen legit movies, and Irishman was about to screen. This year, you could make a legit case for any of the below to get nominated.

 

Nightmare Alley

Licorice Pizza

Tragedy of Macbeth 

House of Gucci

Don't Look Up

Tick Tick.....Boom! (I heard this is very good)

West Side Story

 

And that's not even counting Bond or Eternals if you are inclined to believe they are contenders.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

With how much the headlines about "dwindling ratings" and "#OscarsSoIrrelevant" were dominating the news during the days following the ceremony even before COVID and how those clearly haven't gone unnoticed by the producers (to the point where they completely changed up decades of tradition at the most recent ceremony to accommodate what they perceived would be their biggest headline of the night, only for that to blow up in their faces), I wouldn't be surprised if they were actually considering reviving the idea of the Popular Oscar in the event nothing up for Best Picture really catches on in theaters.

For this year? I would think AMPAS would have to announce a new category by a certain timeframe and not just spring it on everyone in January. Remember that time Critics Choice added The Force Awakens to their Best Picture lineup after they'd already announced the nominees? So shameless. 

 

Dune is opening well internationally, the reviews are good (RT especially), Villeneuve is outspoken about the theatrical experience - people might want to rally around something epic. 

[grim22]

From Matt Belloni

 

Quote

Planning for next year’s show is beginning now, and, as I revealed a couple weeks ago, there will be fewer categories, a real host, and a general shift from a coronation of the mostly niche films preferred by the Academy membership to a broader celebration of movies. It’s about time.        

 

Basically, if you flop at the box office - kiss your award chances goodbye